NFL Week 6 Same Game Parlay: Broncos vs. Jets (International Series)
Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and yes, we have another international game. The New York Jets and Denver Broncos are squaring off at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England.
The Broncos are fresh off a win over the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, and the Jets remain winless after losing 37-22 to the Dallas Cowboys at home.
Below is a three-leg NFL same-game parlay (SGP) for this matchup, including a spread pick and two props. Let’s check it out.
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NFL Week 6 Same Game Parlay: Broncos vs. Jets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
- Leg 1: Broncos -7.5 (-105)
- Leg 2: Justin Fields 1+ Passing Touchdowns (-300)
- Leg 3: Jeremy Ruckert Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Leg #1: Broncos -7.5 (-105)
Not only are the Jets winless to start the season, but now they have to face the Broncos, who possess one of the best defenses in the league. To me, it’s really simple. The Broncos lead the league in quarterback pressures with 89, and the Jets have allowed the most at 95.
That is not a great recipe. Of course, Jets quarterback Justin Fields takes a long time to throw, averaging 3.24 seconds to throw, so that certainly invites pressure. I’m worried about how this Jets offense will function for most of the game. The pressure, especially from the league-leader in sacks, Nik Bonitto (seven), will be felt.
Also, while Fields doesn’t have an interception this season, he has five turnover-worthy plays, indicating he’s been lucky. Against pressure, he’s had four turnover-worthy plays. I think the Broncos’ defense helps carry them to a double-digit win.
Leg #2: Justin Fields 1+ Passing Touchdowns (-300)
While I am concerned about the pressure the Broncos will bring, I do think there will be opportunities for Justin Fields to throw a passing touchdown.
First, the Broncos play Cover 1 more than anything else. Against Cover 1, Fields has completed 10-of-14 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. Then you have to factor in the possibility of garbage time scores. If a team is down by a somewhat substantial margin, it’s natural that the team is going to have to throw.
Fields does have a reliable No. 1 WR at his disposal in Garrett Wilson, and he’ll continue to look for him early and often. In a limited sample size, Fields has had success against man coverage, and I expect the Jets to be playing from behind quite a bit.
Leg #3: Jeremy Ruckert Under 8.5 Receptions (-113)
Jeremy Ruckert has notched nine yards or more in three out of five games, so why fall short now? Despite catching five passes for 51 yards over the last two weeks, he had a team target share of just 7%. Over the course of this season, his team’s target share is just 5.4% and he only runs a route on 26.3% of the team’s dropbacks.
Ruckert is hardly utilized in the passing game. Sure, he’ll get a few random targets, but that’s not reliable. There’s another prominent tight end on the roster in Mason Taylor. He has an 18.9% target share this season, and over the last two weeks, that’s increased to 26.8%, leading the team.
With a player like Ruckert, you could get unlucky, but he’s unreliable from a production standpoint because he’s not often asked to be part of the passing game.
Parlay Odds: +435