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NFL Week 6 Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Each week, I’ll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.

Week 6 Parlay

  • Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5
  • Miami Dolphins +3.5
  • Seattle Seahawks +2.5
  • Odds: +600

This week’s parlay requires a strong stomach, as we’re taking a few ugly underdogs. The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss, but this is exactly when you back them. Mike Tomlin is 14-3-3 ATS as a home underdog, and I’m not convinced Tampa Bay’s offense has been restored to normalcy.

Betting Miami is essentially betting on third-string QB Skylar Thompson. But Thompson wasn’t horrible in relief of Teddy Bridgewater last week and had the Dolphins within two points in the second half. With a full week to prepare, I’m confident Miami can move the ball against an underwhelming Vikings defense.

Finally, I’m surprised to see Seattle catching points here, as Arizona has done nothing to deserve to be laying points on the road. The Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been the lifeless corpse everyone expected, and they could jump on the slow-starting Cardinals.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers -7.5, Total 45.5 

  • Under 45.5
  • Aaron Jones over 60.5 rushing yards
  • Zach Wilson to throw an INT
  • Odds: +441

Green Bay should be highly motivated after an inexcusable loss to the Giants in London. I expect them to emphasize the running game against a Jets defense that ranks 19th in run defense DVOA. That means a heavy dose of Aaron Jones, who has topped this total in the three games he’s gotten at least 13 carries. Finally, Green Bay’s defense should be able to force a mistake out of Wilson in what I’d expect to be a maximum-effort game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers, Total 45

  • Steelers +8.5
  • Chase Claypool under 3.5 receptions
  • Leonard Fournette under 61.5 rushing yards
  • Odds: +593

I’m not saying the Steelers are going to win this game outright. But I would’ve pegged this game at around Tampa -7. There’s value on a desperate Steelers team that might be playing for its season. It feels like Chase Claypool is getting phased out of the offense as new QB Kenny Pickett builds rapport with George Pickens. Leonard Fournette hasn’t topped 60 yards since Week 2 and has struggled to find room to run behind a Bucs offensive line that’s still gelling.

San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Atlanta Falcons, Total 44.5 

  • Falcons +5.5
  • George Kittle over 43.5 yards
  • Odds: +253

I expect the Falcons will keep things close against a banged-up 49ers team playing its second straight road game on the East coast. I think George Kittle could be in store for the breakout we’ve been waiting for. Atlanta has given up at least 43 receiving yards to opposing tight ends in every game this season.

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 at Miami Dolphins, Total 46

  • Dolphins +3.5
  • Adam Thielen over 51.5 receiving yards
  • Adam Thielen anytime TD
  • Odds: +872

As I mentioned above, I think Miami can keep up with Minnesota even with Thompson at quarterback. The Vikings’ defense ranks 28th in DVOA and could have trouble covering speedsters Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins have also struggled against high-powered passing attacks, ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA. However, Xavien Howard should be back to shadow Justin Jefferson, so I’ve turned my attention to the second option in the Minnesota passing game. Thielen’s topped this yardage total in three games, and I think a player as adept in the red zone should finally get in the end zone.

Baltimore Ravens -5.5 at New York Giants, Total 45.5

  • Ravens -5.5
  • Lamar Jackson over 208.5 passing yards
  • Mark Andrews anytime TD
  • Odds: +603

This feels like a great opportunity to buy the Ravens. The Giants opted not to take their bye after going to London last week, and we saw both the Saints and Vikings struggle after doing the same thing. Baltimore’s offense should have its way with a Giants defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. Former Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale now calls the defense for New York, so there’s some familiarity with his blitz-heavy scheme. I suspect Jackson will tear it up and get his top playmaker a score.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -2, Total 42

  • Colts -2
  • Christian Kirk over 54.5 receiving yards
  • Odds: +246

This is admittedly not a favorite game of mine. Maybe I’m falling into this Indianapolis trap, but I expect them to take advantage of the long week and have a better gameplan the second time around against the Jaguars. Christian Kirk put up 78 yards in the first meeting, and his ability as a zone-beater should do well against a Gus Bradley zone defense.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns -2.5, Total 43.5

With injury uncertainty surrounding the Patriots, the prop menu simply isn’t very extensive as of writing. However, it’s worth noting that New England ranks 28th in run defense DVOA, while Cleveland ranks 32nd. My ideal parlay would be the over on Nick Chubb’s rushing yards, the over on Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing total, and the Browns -2.5. Of course, make sure Damien Harris is ruled out before making a play.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 at New Orleans Saints, Total 43.5

  • Under 43.5
  • Ja’Marr Chase over 76.5 receiving yards
  • Taysom Hill anytime TD
  • Odds: +711

This game could be rather ugly. The Bengals’ offense can’t get anything going and will face a stout Saints defense that ranks 12th in DVOA. And New Orleans’ offense could once again be without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas. The problem is New Orleans could be without Marshon Lattimore, potentially setting Chase up for a big day. Finally, I’m just going to ride the Taysom Hill wave, especially if Andy Dalton’s under center again.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs, Total 54

  • Over 54
  • Gabriel Davis over 51.5 receiving yards
  • Travis Kelce anytime TD
  • Odds: +546

I admittedly haven’t made an official play on this game yet, as I’m hoping the line will drop to closer to a pick ’em before taking Buffalo. However, I think we’ll see a ton of points, and I expect Gabriel Davis and Travis Kelce to play a big role in this game.

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams -10, Total 41.5

  • Under 41.5
  • Matthew Stafford to throw an INT
  • Odds: +270

This game has rock fight written all over it. The Panthers are working in new quarterback PJ Walker, while the Rams’ offense is in complete disarray. I think Los Angeles will bounce back, but I have seen nothing to justify laying 10 points with them. However, I feel fairly confident that the turnover-happy Matthew Stafford will make at least one bad throw.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at Seattle Seahawks, Total 50.5

  • Seahawks +2.5
  • D.K. Metcalf over 69.5 receiving yards
  • Marquise Brown over 6.5 receptions
  • Odds: +667

This game could be the highest-scoring contest of the weekend, as the Cardinals rank 27th in defensive DVOA, while Seattle ranks 31st. Both defenses are particularly weak against the pass, so I’m betting on the top pass catchers having big days.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, Total 42

  • Under 42
  • Cooper Rush under 219.5 passing yards
  • Odds: +257

I’ve heard a ton of people who like Philadelphia this week, but I don’t feel comfortable laying this heavy number in a primetime divisional showdown. Dallas has gone on this winning streak without asking too much of Cooper Rush. And while I think they’re facing an uphill battle against the Eagles, I think Rush will struggle mightily against arguably the best defense he’s faced thus far. I’m not expecting many points in general, as Dallas’ defensive speed should be able to limit this high-flying Eagles offense.

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