NFL Week 7 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
Six underdogs won outright in Week 6, including shocking victories by the Jets over the Packers and the Steelers over the Buccaneers. Additionally, the Falcons moved to a perfect 6-0 against the spread (ATS) this season.
Week 7 features just four opening spreads where a team is favored by a field goal or less, signaling a more lopsided upcoming slate.
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New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Giants are 5-1 straight up and against the spread, and yet, they once again find themselves underdogs in Week 7. This week, they will be in Jacksonville, to take on the Jaguars who have lost three in a row straight up and ATS.
The Giants have been good to bettors this season, and it seems that the team is really buying into what Head Coach Brian Daboll has been preaching. With the Jaguars a popular play over the last few weeks and failing to live up to expectations, look for this line to move in favor of New York.
However, when betting, keep in mind that this is the Giants’ first true road game since Week 1 of this season.
- Current Line: Jaguars -3
- Predicted Final Line: Jaguars -1.5
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
The Falcons are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season, in part because they have been underdogs in every single game they’ve played in. That won’t change this weekend when they go to Cincinnati as less-than-touchdown underdogs.
With this line opening under the key number, it seems Oddsmakers want bettors to take the Bengals. But with the public knowledge of how great the Falcons are against the spread, it’s likely this number will actually drop in their favor as kickoff gets closer. There are no key numbers in play in that direction, so whether this ends at 4.5 or 5, doesn’t make much of a difference.
- Current Line: Bengals -6
- Predicted Final Line: Bengals -5
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are favored by a touchdown or more for the first time this season, as they host the 1-3-1 Texans. The Raiders are 2-3 against the spread, covering in their last two games, once as a favorite and once as an underdog.
The Texans have been seven-point or greater underdogs three other times this season. They have covered all three contests. With four of the Raiders’ five games decided by one score or less, and with the Texans so good as big underdogs, it’s hard to imagine the public showing any serious support to Las Vegas. Look for this line to fall throughout the week, then maybe come back up to 6 on Sunday.
- Current Line: Raiders -7
- Predicted Final Line: Raiders -5.5
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Mahomes was just a home underdog for the first time in his career, and he lost. Now, he looks to get things right with a road trip to San Francisco. The 49ers were destroyed by the Falcons in Week 6, thanks in large part to their defense being riddled with injuries.
The 49ers should get some key pieces back this week, but will it be enough for them to slow down Mahomes and company? This number is small, and it’s hard to imagine it getting smaller. Look for this to move safely above the key number as the week progresses.
- Current Line: Chiefs -3
- Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -4
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
After starting 3-0, the Dolphins’ quarterback injuries have caused them to nosedive to a 3-3 record. Tua Tagovailoa should be good to go this weekend, which is exactly what everyone in Miami wants to hear.
Now, it’s the quarterback situation in Pittsburgh that is up in the air. Rookie Kenny Pickett was injured in Week 6, which allowed Mitch Trubisky to come into the game and secure the victory for the Steelers. The upset was the biggest of Week 6, and it may cause some bettors to back the Steelers in this game.
However, if Tua is back, the Dolphins are a different team. This is a prime letdown spot for the Steelers and a must-win for the Dolphins.
- Current Line: Dolphins -7
- Predicted Final Line: Dolphins -8
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Bailey Zappe has been electric since taking over as the starter for the Patriots. In two starts, he is 41-55 for 497 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. In both of those contests, the Patriots won by at least 23 points, and they are averaging 33.5 points per game.
The Bears are coming off a heartbreaking Thursday night loss to Washington. They amassed nearly 200 more yards than the Commanders, but they failed to score any points on three drivers that saw plays run inside the Commanders’ five-yard line.
The Patriots are a hot team right now, and it was a popular play to pick against them the last two weeks. It may seem like Oddsmakers are overreacting here by putting this line above the key number, but in reality, they’re setting a trap, hoping bettors will take the Bears. Look for bettors to back the red-hot Patriots and move this line away from the key number.
- Current Line: Patriots -7.5
- Predicted Final Line: Patriots -8.5
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.