NFL Week 7 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Oct 17, 2023

Let’s take a look around the league at the early matchyp trends as we head into Week 7.

Early Week Bets and Trends - Week 7

Jaguars @ Saints - Thursday, October 19 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -3; O/U 39

Jaguars trends:

Previous 5 road games: 5-0 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 11 non-conference games: 2-9 ATS
Previous 15 games following a win: 9-6 ATS

Saints trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS; 10-0 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-7-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 4-11-1 ATS

Best bet - JAC +3

This line has already taken off since the opening to reach the key number of 3. I'll take the field goal with the Jaguars in a spot where they've been great ATS before this number moves off of 3.

Falcons @ Buccaneers - Sunday, October 22 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - TB -2.5; O/U 38.5

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 games against the Buccaneers: 8-2 to the Over
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 7-13 ATS; 15-5 to the Under

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 14 games following a loss: 3-10-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - Under 38.5

Both defenses have played pretty well this year, and both offenses have shown the ability to be inconsistent and turn the ball over. I'll take the under even with this low total in a spot that has skewed heavily to be low-scoring on both sides.

Browns @ Colts - Sunday, October 22 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - CLE -2; O/U 39

Browns trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-2-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 16 games following a win: 4-12 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 11-20 ATS

Colts trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 24 non-divisional games: 14-10 ATS

Best bet - Over 39

The Colts’ defense has shown the propensity to give up points this year, and I think Cleveland's defense will have several opportunities to generate turnovers and short fields for their offense. With or without Watson, I like the over in this spot.

Bills @ Patriots - Sunday, October 22 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -8.5; O/U 41.5

Bills trends:

Previous 10 road games: 9-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13-6-1 ATS
Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 34-26-4 ATS

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 games: 1-9 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 5-15 ATS
Previous 15 divisional games: 6-9 ATS
Mac Jones (Career): 16-23 ATS

Best bet - Under 41.5

Betting on the Patriots is the equivalent of lighting money on fire right now, but I don't feel comfortable laying that many points with the Bills in a divisional game. I'll take the under in this game between two teams that know each other very well, in a game that has heavily trended toward the under for both teams.

Raiders @ Bears - Sunday, October 22 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - LV -3; O/U 37.5

Raiders trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 11-8-1 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 5-14-1 ATS; 13-6-1 to the Under

Bears trends:

Previous 10 home games: 2-7-1 ATS (0-10 SU)
Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 6-13-1 ATS
Previous 27 games after a loss: 9-16-2 ATS

Best bet - Under 37.5

In an outdoor game where we could very well see two backup QBs, I'll stay away from either side and just take the under.

Commanders @ Giants - Sunday, October 22 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - WAS -2; O/U 40

Commanders trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 13 divisional games: 5-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-6-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-6-2 to the Under

Giants trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games against the Commanders: 7-3 ATS; 5-3-2 to the Under
Previous 14 divisional games: 6-8 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-4-2 to the Under
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 11-6 ATS

Best bet - NYG +2

The Giants played the Bills extremely tough on Sunday night, even without Daniel Jones. I like them in this spot as a home divisional underdog no matter who's under center against a Commanders team that's riding high after a big win in Atlanta.

Lions @ Ravens - Sunday, October 22 - 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -3; O/U 42

Lions trends:

Previous 11 non-conference games: 7-4 ATS
Previous 14 games after a win: 11-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 15-5 ATS
Dan Campbell as an underdog (Career): 24-15 ATS

Ravens trends:

Previous 10 home games: 2-7-1 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 16-4 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 17-3 to the Under
Previous 21 games after a win: 7-13-1 ATS

Best bet - BAL -3

Trends scream to fade Baltimore and buy Detroit in this spot, but I actually think this is at the peak of Detroit's value. I'll take the Ravens to cover against the Lions at home while the line sits at a field goal.

Cardinals @ Seahawks - Sunday, October 22 - 4:05PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SEA -8; O/U 44.5

Cardinals trends:

Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS

Previous 15 divisional games: 5-10 ATS

Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under

Previous 14 divisional games: 5-9 ATS

Previous 20 home games: 12-8 to the Under

Best bet - ARI +8

Arizona has been frisky this year as an underdog, I'll take them getting over a touchdown here in a divisional matchup in a spot that tends to go under for Seattle.

Steelers @ Rams - Sunday, October 22 - 4:05PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - Rams -3; O/U 43

Steelers trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS

Previous 11 non-conference games: 4-7 ATS

Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 54-28-3 ATS

Rams trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Under

Previous 13 non-conference games: 4-7-2 ATS

Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 14-6 to the Under

Previous 22 games following a win: 8-14 ATS

Best bet - PIT +3

Backing Mike Tomlin as an underdog has been one of the most profitable propositions in any sport, I'll take the points with the Steelers here.

Packers @ Broncos - Sunday, October 22 - 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - GB -1; O/U 44.5

Packers trends:

Previous 5 road games: 4-1 ATS

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS

Matt LaFleur (Career): 42-29 ATS

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-7-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Over

Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS

Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 ATS;12-8 to the Under

Previous 25 games following a loss: 10-14-1 ATS

Best bet - DEN +1

While it's true that the Sean Payton-Russell Wilson pairing has left a lot to be desired, I still find this home underdog spot extremely favorable for Denver. I'll take the Broncos to defend their home turf and win this non-conference matchup against a Green Bay team that is still searching for an identity.

Chargers @ Chiefs - Sunday, October 22 - 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -5.5; O/U 50

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS

Previous 13 divisional games: 8-5 ATS

Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS

Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 ATS; 10-8-2 to the Under

Chiefs trends:

Previous 10 home games against the Chargers: 3-7 ATS

Previous 13 divisional games: 6-7 ATS

Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - LAC +5.5

This is too many points to be giving this explosive Chargers offense in a divisional spot where they have tended to play the Chiefs very well in recent years.

Dolphins @ Eagles - Sunday, October 22 - 8:20PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -1.5; O/U 52

Dolphins trends:

Previous 10 games: 8-2 ATS

Previous 10 road games: 8-2 to the Over

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Over

Previous 21 games following a win: 14-7 ATS

Eagles trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS

Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 8-2 to the Over

Previous 11 games following a loss: 4-7 ATS

Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Over

Best bet - Over 51

Nobody has been able to slow down Miami's offense this season, and I trust this Philly offense to bounce back after a matchup against a tough Jets defense, especially in a spot where they have tended to put up points.

49ers @ Vikings - Monday, October 23 - 8:15PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -7; O/U 44

49ers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Over

Previous 11 games following a loss: 7-4 ATS

Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over

Previous 30 non-divisional games: 18-12 ATS

Brock Purdy (Career): 11-3 ATS

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS

Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 1-8-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over

Kevin O'Connell as an underdog (Career): 2-5 ATS

Best bet - SF -7

I think this is a great bounce-back spot for the 49ers coming off of a loss against a soft Vikings defense that will also be without the services of Justin Jefferson on offense.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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