NFL Week 7 First & Anytime TD Picks: Rams vs. Jaguars (International Series)
We've got a good one this week in the NFL international series with the Rams and Jaguars facing off in London, which is badly needed on the heels of whatever sport was being played between the Jets and the Broncos last Sunday. I've got a selection of first and anytime touchdown picks with a variety of odds for this game. Getting any one of these to the window will get you off to a good start for your NFL Sunday slate.
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Rams vs. Jaguars Week 7 NFL TD Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Davante Adams: First Touchdown Scorer (+500) | Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125) | To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+500)
The Rams are in a fortunate spot, even without Puka Nacua on Sunday, because that just means Davante Adams slides into the No. 1 WR role he's assumed for essentially his whole career. Adams has been a target machine in the red zone this season, leading the NFL with 13 red-zone targets (39% of all targets to Rams pass-catchers) and also targets inside the 10-yard line (44% of all targets to Rams pass-catchers), which should both only increase without Nacua.
Adams has an A+ matchup this week against a Jaguars defense that is conceding the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts and has been absolutely victimized by opposing No. 1 WRs. Here are the game logs from some top receivers against the Jaguars this season:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 8/162/1 (Seahawks First Touchdown Scorer)
- Nico Collins: 8/104/1 (Texans First Touchdown Scorer)
- Ja'Marr Chase: 14/165/1 TD (Bengals First Touchdown Scorer)
While none of these receivers scored the game's first touchdown, this could absolutely just come down to whoever gets the ball first, because each scored their team's first touchdown. If you'd rather forfeit some of the odds and just take Adams to score the Rams’ first team touchdown to protect against the Jaguars scoring first, I don't hate that either.
Adams anytime touchdown scorer (-125) is a play for me, with a sprinkle on him to score two or more touchdowns (+500) as well. I like Adams early and often in this game, as he should absolutely explode as the top receiving option against a Jaguars defense that has had no success defending alpha wide receivers this season.
First Touchdown Scorer: Parker Washington (+3000)
With Davante Adams as my short odds play for first touchdown scorer on the Rams side of the ball, I'll place a longshot bet on wide receiver Parker Washington to score the game's first touchdown for the Jaguars. While Washington certainly isn't a high-volume target, as he’s usually the third or fourth receiving option for Trevor Lawrence on any given week, he's receiving 12% of the team's targets and leads Jaguars receivers in both average yards after the catch and average yards after contact. W
Washington’s two drops are tied for the fewest on the team, and he has a 40+ yard reception under his belt this season. Keeping with the theme of scoring the team's first touchdown, Washington's lone touchdown reception against the Chiefs in Week 5 was Jacksonville's first touchdown of the game. While Brian Thomas Jr. did finally notch a receiving score last week, he hasn't been the same game-breaker that burst onto the scene in his rookie campaign. Travis Hunter is still gathering his footing in this offense and adjusting to life as an NFL receiver. Give me a sprinkle on Washington as a very overlooked option in this Jaguars offense to score the game's first touchdown this week.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Tyler Higbee (+290)
If the above breakdown of why I love Davante Adams in this spot wasn't convincing enough, consider Rams tight end Tyler Higbee to find paydirt this week. While it's true that Higbee has had a very underwhelming start to the season, he did finally find the end zone against Baltimore last week.
Higbee still ranks third in Rams non-running backs in terms of red-zone targets, and he slides up the pecking order without Nacua. I also think that Higbee profiles much more similarly to the middle of the field, physical playing style, where Nacua operates, than Adams does, and he should certainly see an uptick in volume with Nacua on the sidelines. With a total in the mid-40s against a Jaguars team that surrenders the fourth-most passing yards per game, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility to have Higbee cash this play while also getting Adams in for one (or more) score.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Trevor Lawrence (+380)
We saw Trevor Lawrence be a massive weapon as a ball-carrier two weeks ago, where he carried the ball 10 times for 54 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner, against the Chiefs. He was millimeters away from making it a three-score performance, as the ball was smacked out of his hands just shy of the goal line when he attempted to jump over the line on a quarterback sneak attempt from the 1-yard line.
We've seen Lawrence do that multiple times in his career, almost always converting with his tall stature and long arms. Lawrence's five red-zone carries make up 20% of all Jaguars carries. His four rushes inside the 10-yard line make up 40% of all Jaguars carries. His three rushes inside the 5-yard line make up 75% of all Jaguars carries. Simply put, the closer the ball gets to the goal line, the more willing Liam Coen is to let Lawrence carry the rock himself. His odds aren't much shorter than they were when he scored multiple times against the Chiefs, and I think this is a great price for him to find paydirt again this Sunday in London.