NFL Week 7 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2026)
Week 7 of the NFL season is here, and I've dissected the slate to determine the three best longshot bets. Below, I explain why points will be hard to come by when the Browns face the Titans, and why Matthew Golden and Saquon Barkley are in for huge games in great matchups. Here are the best longshot NFL Week 7 picks.
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NFL Week 7 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Browns-Titans Under 24.5 Points (+555)
Even after their 26-20 win last week, the Titans remain the NFL’s lowest-scoring team, averaging just 14 points per game. The Browns aren't much better, averaging just 17.7 per contest. And though the Titans are 1-5, their defense hasn't been terrible, allowing just 21.5 points per game. The Browns rank seventh, allowing just 20.3 points per game.
Last week, the Browns defeated the Ravens 13-10, and the week before, they fell 17-12 to the Jets after allowing a touchdown with just 3:01 remaining. Since allowing 34 points to the Jaguars in Week 1, the Browns have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points.
I fully expect the Browns to hold the Titans to fewer than 20 on Sunday, as the Titans have scored 20 or fewer points in five of their six games this season. The Titans have scored in single digits twice, and they've been held to 10 or fewer points three times. This really comes down to how much the Browns score, but the Titans have faced better offenses and haven't allowed more than 26 points this season.
Matthew Golden 130+ Receiving Yards (+514)
While Christian Watson leads the Packers' receiving corps, Matthew Golden isn't far behind, with 30 catches for 501 yards this season. He has three 100-yard games, with a season-high of 123 against the Bears two weeks ago.
The Lions got good news this week, as Brian Branch will return to the field after suffering an Achilles injury late last season. Branch will certainly improve the Lions' defense, but he can’t fix all the problems facing the Lions' 32nd-ranked total defense. Additionally, I expect most of Branch's focus to be on the Packers' true No. 1 receiver, which will provide more opportunities for Golden.
Golden is averaging 16.7 yards per reception, and he's caught a pass of at least 42 yards in three games. The Lions allow 7.8 yards per attempt, the seventh-worst mark in the league. In what should be a very high-scoring game, I expect Golden to explode against the league's worst pass defense.
Saquon Barkley 150+ Rushing Yards (+1260)
Jalen Hurts is out, the offensive line is a mess and Saquon Barkley is returning from an injury. Yet my final longshot bet backs Barkley for a massive night against the Cowboys on Monday. Barkley has yet to rush for more than 83 yards in a game, and he hasn't carried the ball more than 15 times. He's averaged 5.5 yards per carry twice in four games.
The Cowboys have been the best matchup for running backs this season, allowing 149.8 rushing yards per game. That's 10 more yards per game than any other team. Two weeks ago, Bucky Irving ran for 165 yards against them.
Playing solely for NFC East teams, Barkley has had plenty of cracks at the Cowboys, with his best performance coming in a 167-yard game against them in 2024.
With Tanner McKee proving last week that he can't lead this offense, I expect a heavy dose of Barkley on Monday. And with the Cowboys allowing more yards per carry than any other team Barkley has faced this season, he could realistically hit this number with as few as 20 attempts.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.