NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Week 7 Favorites (2022)
I’ll be honest: I don’t love this week’s player props menu. In fact, I don’t even like it.
It also makes me nervous when I like this many overs. Generally, I like to keep overs and unders somewhat balanced. To be dramatically overweight on overs is unnerving.
But, hey, there are still some winners out there. We just need to find ’em.
Last week’s bets went 4-3, bringing us to 25-16 on the year.
The wins: Marcus Mariota under 194.5 passing yards, Breece Hall over 57.5 rushing yards, Diontae Johnson under 58.5 receiving yards, Robbie Anderson under 35.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Kyler Murray over 261.5 passing yards, Jeff Wilson over 66.5 rushing yards, Dalvin Cook under 73.5 rushing yards.
Let’s get to the selections for Week 7 …
Last week: 4-3
Season record: 25-16
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of early Thursday afternoon.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 234.5 passing yards
The yardage totals for Rodgers keep getting lower and lower, and at a number this low, it’s time to jump in. As bumpy as the season has been for Rodgers and the Green Bay offense, he’s topped this number in 3-of-6 games, and one of the misses was by only half a yard. Washington’s defense ranks 19th in DVOA against the pass and has an opponent passer rating of 99.1, sixth-worst in the league. The Commanders are allowing 244.2 passing yards per game and a robust 7.7 yards per attempt, which just happens to be Rodgers’ career YPA.
Joe Burrow OVER 285.5 passing yards
Burrow has topped this number in his last six regular-season home games, averaging 374 passing yards in those contests. The Falcons are giving up 291.2 passing yards per game, and they just put CB Casey Hayward on IR. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and that’s with Hayward. Burrow is a reasonably safe bet for heavy passing volume. He’s averaging 38 pass attempts per game so far in 2022, and he’s thrown at least 35 passes in 5-of-6 starts.
Saquon Barkley OVER 76.5 rushing yards
Barkley is averaging 19.8 carries and 102.7 rushing yards per game. He has beaten this number in 4-of-6 games this season and has run for at least 70 yards every week. Barkley’s matchup this week is no cakewalk: The Jaguars have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this season. But Jacksonville’s run defense, which was so good in the first few weeks of the season, has been trending downward. As my colleague Derek Brown points out in this week’s installment of The Primer, the Jaguars’ run defense is 17th in DVOA over the last three weeks, 19th in rushing yards allowed per game, 25th in expected points added, and 19th in explosive run rate allowed.
Romeo Doubs OVER 46.5 receiving yards
It doesn’t feel comfortable after what we’ve seen from the Packers the last few weeks, but I’m doubling up on Green Bay this week with the overs on Aaron Rodgers’ passing yardage and Romeo Doubs’ receiving yardage. Doubs is a good bet to have a big snap share this week against Washington — most likely 90% or higher — with Green Bay WRs Christian Watson (hamstring) and Randall Cobb (ankle) both out. Doubs has only topped this number twice this season (and in one instance he only beat it by half a yard), but he’s averaged 7.3 targets and 4.0 receptions over his last three games, and his matchup this week is appealing. Washington’s defense ranks 26th in expected points added per passing play. Doubs will run most of his routes against the Commanders’ outside cornerbacks, Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste. PFF has Fuller graded 83rd out of 108 NFL cornerbacks this season, St-Juste 75th.
Christian Kirk over 49.5 receiving yards
The Jaguars’ wealthy slot receiver has been slumping, but now is the time to get in. After averaging 81.8 receiving yards over his first four games with Jacksonville, Kirk has averaged 17.5 receiving yards over his last two. But this week against the Giants, Kirk will mostly avoid perimeter CB Adoree Jackson, the Giants’ best cover man, and will likely run the majority of his routes against Julian Love, who’s allowed a 71% catch rate on throws into his coverage. It’s a get-right matchup for Kirk.
Chris Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards
In Week 6, Godwin had a 34.2% target share and 48.4% of the Buccaneers’ air yards. (Once again, a hat tip to Derek Brown for those numbers.) This week vs. Carolina, Godwin will run most of his routes against Panthers slot corner Myles Hartfield, who has yielded a 75% catch rate and an outrageous 133.2 passer rating on throws into his coverage. This is a smash spot for Godwin, who appears fully recovered from the torn ACL he sustained late last season.
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