NFL Week 8 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)
Last week was a very good one for my Anytime Touchdown (ATD) bets as I went 6-5 overall. Things were not as good on the First Touchdown (FTD) front. But it was still a positive week overall. We have a full slate for Week 8, as all 32 teams are in action. Below are my favorite ATD and FTD for the 13 games on Sunday's main slate.
As always, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets.
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Best NFL Week 8 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
All wagers are 0.5 units
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at ESPNBet
- First TD Odds: +1000 at ESPNBet
The matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals should be a competitive and high-scoring affair. The Bengals have been susceptible to running quarterbacks in recent weeks. They have allowed three straight signal-callers to rush for at least 44 yards against them. The odds of a Hurts scramble near the goal line are higher than normal in this matchup. And of course, the Eagles are not shy about running Hurts at the goal line. So far this season, Hurts has eight carries inside the five-yard line compared to seven for running back Saquon Barkley. Hurts ran for two scores last week and now has four rushing touchdowns on the season. I like the chances of Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts rushing for a score in this game, especially given the price disparity between him and Barkley.
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins
No Miami Dolphins receiver has found the end zone since Week 1, and Jaylen Waddle has yet to score this season. But Miami should be getting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back this week. Tagovailoa has been out since Week 2 following his most recent concussion but has been practicing this week. As long as there are no setbacks between now and Sunday, this should boost the productivity of the Dolphins wide receivers. The matchup is quite favorable against an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA versus the pass. They also rank dead last in the NFL in success rate and first down-plus-touchdown rate when playing zone coverage. I think that Waddle and Tyreek Hill are both good ATD/FTD bets this week and am going with Waddle as my pick in this game.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
This may not be the sexiest pick based on the pricing involved. But there is a lot to like about the matchup for Breece Hall this week. The New England Patriots have allowed multiple touchdowns to lead backs in their last two games. They rank 28th in the NFL in DVOA against the run and have given up a 78 percent touchdown conversion rate on carries inside their five-yard line. One of those runs came on a Hall touchdown run in Week 3. Since that matchup, the New York Jets have lost four straight games. Hall has had 12 or fewer carries in three of those four games, and New York has come under fire for abandoning the run. I expect them to feed Hall early and often in this game, which should boost his chances of scoring.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers last squared off in Week 5, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield combined for seven touchdown passes. However, I think the value from an ATD/FTD perspective is greater on the running backs in the rematch. Specifically, I am targeting Bucky Irving of the Buccaneers. Irving has scored in three of his last four games. And with the Buccaneers losing both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week, they figure to lean more on their running game down in the red zone. Though they failed to run for a score in their previous matchup with Atlanta, Tampa Bay had success on the ground in that game. Irving and Rachaad White combined for 116 yards on just 19 carries.
Irving has been Tampa Bay's best rusher this season and is also their preferred option in the red zone. Irving has 16 red zone carries compared to just five for White. To be fair, White has been targeted as a pass catcher five times in the red zone, while Irving has earned just one target. Still, I believe Bucky Irving is the better bet to score in this matchup. Irving has been dealing with a toe injury, but head coach Todd Bowles has stated that he expects Irving to play on Sunday. Provided there are no setbacks, I like Irving to find the end zone in this game.
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
With the Detroit Lions installed as double-digit favorites against the Tennessee Titans, it seems wise to pick a Lion to score this week. If you gravitate towards David Montgomery or Amon-Ra St. Brown, you will not get a huge argument from me. Both of those players are viable ATD/FTD options in this game. However, I am going with Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is tied with Montgomery for the team lead with six touchdowns this season. He also receives a bit more work (24 opportunities compared to 18 for Montgomery) in the red zone. With Jameson Williams being out this week due to suspension and tight end Sam LaPorta not being as involved in the passing game this year, I think Tennessee can zero in on St. Brown a bit in the red zone. Therefore, I lean towards Gibbs here.
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars
The matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars pits the league leader in passing touchdowns per game (Jordan Love) against the team that has given up the most touchdown passes this year. This feels like an obvious spot to pick a Packers pass catcher to score. The question is which one to select. Based on the matchup, I am going with Romeo Doubs. Jacksonville plays man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. And, as you might suspect, they are not very good at it. Doubs leads all Packers pass catchers in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns versus man coverage. He also has been heavily involved in recent weeks. Doubs scored twice two weeks ago, then had eight catches on 10 targets last week. Doubs will have another solid game on Sunday, including a touchdown.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
The Indianapolis Colts are a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of both DVOA and EPA this season. They are also a bottom-10 zone defense despite playing zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league. All of that should help enable Stefon Diggs to find paydirt in this matchup. Diggs has three touchdown catches this season, all of which have come against zone coverage. Two of those scores came in Houston's season-opening win in Indianapolis. Diggs has at least six targets in all seven games played this season and has been extremely efficient near the goal zone. He has scored on three of his four targets inside the 10-yard line and also ran for a score on his only such rushing attempt. Look for Diggs to keep that efficiency going this week.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
This is the part of the show where I discuss Derrick Henry's ATD and FTD odds. The best price I have seen on a Derrick Henry Week 8 touchdown is -250. I cannot tell you what to do with your own money, but that is too rich for my blood. There is a high probability that Henry scores every time he touches the field, but I am looking elsewhere. The Cleveland Browns have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in their last four games. They also lead the NFL in the rate of man coverage. Zay Flowers leads Baltimore in receptions against man coverage. But Rashod Bateman is second. He also is the only Ravens wide receiver to score a touchdown versus man coverage this season. With Flowers nursing an ankle injury that has limited his practice time this week, I am going with Bateman.
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
The Buffalo Bills like to spread the wealth when it comes to touchdowns. Eight Bills receivers have accounted for Josh Allen's 12 passing touchdowns, with no pass catcher scoring more than two. And four different ball carriers have scored for Buffalo this year. Running back James Cook is my ATD and FTD pick in this game. He has been Buffalo's most prolific scorer this year. Cook has scored six touchdowns in six games. He also should have a favorable matchup against Seattle's struggling run defense. The Seahawks have served up 772 scrimmage yards to enemy running backs over their last four games. They have also allowed running backs to score five rushing touchdowns while averaging 5.78 yards per carry in that span. Based on that, I am happy to take Cook at plus-money to score this week.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers
Multiple sportsbooks have not yet posted ATD and FTD lines for Sunday's Week 8 matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers. You may be able to find better pricing elsewhere once these lines are released to the public.
The New Orleans Saints have fallen apart in recent weeks. They have allowed a total of 10 touchdowns in their last two games. Five of those (as well as 472 scrimmage yards) have come at the hands of the running back position. Enter J.K. Dobbins, who has been dominating touches for the Los Angeles Chargers. Since the team placed Gus Edwards on Injured Reserve two weeks ago, Dobbins has 44 touches. Rookie sixth-round pick Kimani Vidal is next among Chargers running backs with 10. Considering the matchup and workload, I think we are getting excellent pricing on a Dobbins touchdown this week.
If you want a longer shot, consider the Chargers defense/special teams unit. The Saints have incredibly allowed a total of four defensive and special teams touchdowns over their last four games. Pricing on D/ST touchdowns can be all over the place at times. The best price for this bet that I have found is +650 for an ATD and +3100 for a FTD at FanDuel.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos
Speaking of wonky ATD and FTD pricing, Caesars Sportsbook somehow managed to have the best price on a Javonte Williams ATD bet while also having the worst FTD price. This is yet another example of why you want to shop for the best price whenever possible. As for this bet itself, it is never a bad idea to bet against the Carolina Panthers run defense. Carolina has allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing running backs over their last four games. Only three other NFL teams have allowed more than four in that same span. Javonte Williams has earned 17 or more opportunities in three of Denver's last four games. That figures to be the case again this week with Denver a heavy favorite. Williams has a great chance of scoring at least one touchdown in this matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kareem Hunt ranks in the top 20 in the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line as well as touchdowns. He is also tied for fifth in the league in yards on carries inside the five. This feels like a good time to mention that Hunt has only played three games this year. Hunt was unemployed six weeks ago and has now earned 52 touches across Kansas City's last two games. The Chiefs seem very comfortable riding Hunt until the wheels fall off, especially near the goal line. Kansas City faces the Las Vegas Raiders in a matchup that should allow that strategy to continue. The Raiders rank 27th in DVOA defensively against the run this year. They have allowed eight touchdowns and 4.95 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Look for Hunt to add to those totals in Week 8.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
My final ATD/FTD bet for Week 8 is on Brian Robinson Jr. of the Washington Commanders. Quarterback Jayden Daniels will be a game-time decision for this potential showdown with Caleb Williams. Robinson should be heavily featured regardless of whether Daniels plays. The Chicago Bears are a run-funnel defense. They rank first overall in the NFL in EPA versus the pass, but 27th against the run. Robinson Jr. enters this game tied for fourth in the NFL in carries (14) and rushing yards (29) inside the opponent's 10-yard line. He is also tied for second with six touchdowns on those carries. All of this comes despite Robinson Jr. missing a game due to injury, plus Daniels rushing eight times and scoring four touchdowns from inside the 10. If Daniels either misses this game or sees a reduced role in the run game, Robinson Jr. should benefit.