NFL Week 8 Composite Power Ratings (2024)
Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.
Week 8 NFL Composite Power Ratings
- Typically, the biggest moves in ratings week-to-week come from quarterback injuries. However, on Monday night, we saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for what seems like a couple of weeks. Wide receiver injuries on their own may not mean a lot in a vacuum, but when you lose two of them in one night and they had been one of the best-performing duos in the league, a downgrade is warranted. I suspect that a portion of Tampa Bay’s move down was also due to the beating they took from Baltimore defensively as they struggled to make any sort of stop.
- I’m not sure I understand the move-up for the Broncos. They beat up on a very depleted Saints team that was missing its two starting receivers and was starting a rookie quarterback on a short week in his second-career game. Denver’s defense has been elite all year and they had a great game on the ground, but that was to be expected against a Saints team that was already struggling to defend the run. Furthermore, Bo Nix continues to struggle and, at this point, is a quarterback that the Broncos are winning in spite of, not because of. If it weren’t for them facing the Panthers this week, I’d be fading the Broncos.
Week 8 Matchups
- Jayden Daniels’ status for Sunday’s game against Chicago is still up in the air. Sources are mixed on whether they have included him as the starter for their ratings, so I would disregard the massive discrepancy between the composite ratings and spread shown above.
- Another game with a larger discrepancy is the Sunday Night Football game between the 49ers and Cowboys. This game opened with the 49ers as 5.5-point favorites (6 points in some places), but has since been bet down to San Francisco being favored by 4 points, so it hasn’t crossed any key numbers. These teams are both dealing with key injuries though. For Dallas, pass rusher Micah Parsons is already considered a game-time decision. San Francisco obviously lost Brandon Aiyuk for the season, but George Kittle (sprained foot), Jauan Jennings (hip), and Deebo Samuel (pneumonia-like illness) are all also considered questionable at this time. I’d be waiting on injury updates for San Francisco before laying the points with them.