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NFL Week 9 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Last week was another solid if not spectacular week for my Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) bets. I enjoy sweating these out every week and hope you do as well. I am back with picks for all 12 of the games on the Week 9 Sunday slate, excluding Sunday Night Football.

As always, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.

Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Best NFL Week 9 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

(ATD – 0.5 units | FTD – 0.1 units)

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

If you are new to the column, you may wonder why I do not have Derrick Henry as my ATD/FTD pick. The reason is simple. Henry's price has become too rich for my blood. I cashed a few Henry ATD and FTD picks earlier in the season, but with Henry having scored in all eight of Baltimore's games, the juice is no longer worth the squeeze for me. If you want to play it, the best ATD price I have found is -225 at Caesars Sportsbook. DraftKings Sportsbook has the best FTD price at +320.

With Baltimore sporting a plethora of weapons but facing a top-five defense in Denver, I am going to pivot to Courtland Sutton. Denver's offense has been much improved in recent weeks as rookie quarterback Bo Nix continues to develop. Sutton leads the Broncos in receptions and targets and has more than twice as many receiving yards as any other Bronco. The Ravens rank 25th in defensive DVOA against the pass, including 30th versus number-one wide receivers. They also rank dead last in first down plus touchdown percentage when playing man coverage. Sutton is the most physically gifted of the Broncos wideouts, and the best bet to take advantage of this matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

With Bengals wideout Tee Higgins listed as doubtful for Cincinnati's Week 9 game versus the Las Vegas Raiders, the temptation was there for me to take one of the team's ancillary pass catchers. However, ultimately I could not get away from Ja'Marr Chase, who leads the NFL in touchdown receptions and receiving yards. He also gets a great matchup against Las Vegas. The Raiders rank dead last in collective coverage grade when playing zone coverage. Chase has five receiving scores and averages 2.71 yards per route run against zone coverage. When the Raiders switch to man coverage, they do not have an elite cornerback who can match up with the dynamic receiver. This is a great spot for Chase to build on his impressive numbers.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard (RB - TEN)

Indulge me in a bit of game theory with this Week 9 ATD and FTD pick. This game features two of the weaker offenses in the NFL facing one another. While Tennessee has an excellent defense, the same cannot be said of New England. The Patriots rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and 29th versus the run. Titans running back Tony Pollard has earned at least 20 opportunities (carries plus targets) in six of seven games this season. He is best suited to take advantage of this matchup. Primary backup Tyjae Spears has already been ruled out, so Pollard could be in line for a monster workload, except for the fact that Pollard has yet to practice this week due to a foot injury. Needless to say, this is less than ideal for a running back.

If you want to bet against Pollard playing on Sunday, there are a couple of ways to go. Third-string running back Julius Chestnut would stand to be Tennessee's top option out of the backfield if Pollard is ruled out. The problem is twofold. First, sportsbooks know this as well. I have seen Chestnut's ATD line as low as +100, which seems silly considering that Chestnut is in his third NFL season and has touched the ball 24 times on offense. The only place I would consider betting on Chestnut is on Bet365. They have his ATD line at +275 and his FTD line at +1200.

The other option I like is wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who has been wildly inconsistent this season. However, he had 10 catches for 143 yards last week after the team traded DeAndre Hopkins. Ridley will likely have to square off with standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez, but should still be heavily targeted regardless of which quarterback Tennessee goes with on Sunday. Ridley's best ATD price is at +190 on DraftKings, while his best FTD price is currently +900 on Fanatics. If you want to bet on any Titan other than Pollard, the time to do so is now. These prices will only drop further if and when Pollard is ruled out.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Chuba Hubbard (RB - CAR)

I am a bit conflicted about this ATD/FTD pick because the scenario I laid out with Pollard played out over the last 24 hours in Carolina. Rookie Jonathon Brooks was scheduled to make his NFL debut this week for the Panthers, however, the team ruled him out on Friday. As a result, sportsbooks quickly changed lines and prices on Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. However, I still think this is a fair price all things considered. The New Orleans Saints rank dead last in defensive DVOA against the run this season. They have been especially bad in that regard of late. The Saints have allowed 711 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns to opposing running backs over their last four games. Hubbard has earned 17 or more opportunities in six straight games and has scored in four of those six. I like his chances of scoring again in Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts (TE - ATL)

Kyle Pitts is finally having the season many envisioned when the Falcons took him fourth overall in the NFL Draft. Pitts scored twice last week and has at least 65 receiving yards in four straight games. I think he can add to those numbers and find the end zone this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has hemorrhaged big plays to opposing tight ends in recent weeks. The Cowboys have given up four receiving touchdowns and 17.7 yards per reception to tight ends in their last three games. Pitts is fourth among tight ends in receiving yards and tied for fourth in touchdown receptions. There are plenty of candidates to score in this game on both sides, but I think Kyle Pitts has the best combination of scoring potential plus solid ATD/FTD pricing.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

James Cook (RB – BUF)

James Cook has been one of the most prolific scorers in the NFL this season. Cook has scored in three straight games and five of his last six. That includes a Week 2 outing against the Miami Dolphins in which Cook scored three touchdowns. A repeat of that performance is not likely. Luckily for us, we only need one touchdown to cash this bet and the Dolphins have had issues defending the run all season. Miami ranks 28th in DVOA versus the run and has allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Even if you exclude Cook's earlier performance, that is still eight touchdowns in six games. Cook appears back to full strength after a recent bout with a toe injury. He should be Buffalo's best weapon in the red zone, and continue to be their top scorer as well.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Ladd McConkey (WR - LAC)

Last week, second-round rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey set personal bests across the board. McConkey scored twice while catching six passes for 111 yards. I think McConkey is in line for another solid game in Week 9 which could very well include another trip to the end zone. The Cleveland Browns play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, but they rank in the bottom 10 in yards per target in that defense. McConkey has elite metrics versus man coverage. He is averaging 4.31 yards per route run while earning a 31.1 percent target share against man coverage. Cleveland may also be without top cornerback Denzel Ward as he deals with a concussion. The Chargers are getting wide receiver Quentin Johnston back this week. However, I still believe that McConkey is the better bet to exploit this matchup and score a touchdown.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Jayden Daniels (QB - WAS)

When the Washington Commanders and New York Giants met in Week 2, New York scored all three touchdowns in the game. Yet, Washington emerged victorious on the strength of seven field goals. That game was not exactly representative of how each team has performed offensively this season. The Commanders have scored 23 offensive touchdowns in their other seven games, while the Giants have scored just seven. Both teams have had their ups and downs defensively, but the Commanders are favored and should have the better chance of scoring touchdowns.

New York has been abysmal lately against the run. Over the past four weeks, they have given up 659 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 6.16 yards per carry. Interestingly enough, three of those touchdowns have come to opposing quarterbacks. That trend, as well as Washington's willingness to use quarterback Jayden Daniels as a rusher near the goal line, has me leaning toward the rookie signal-caller slightly over running back Brian Robinson, Jr. Having said that, I have no issue if anyone prefers Robinson to Daniels. The best prices I have seen for Robinson are on FanDuel. His ATD price is +110, while his FTD price currently sits at +650.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown (WR - PHI)

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what should be one of the most lopsided matchups on the Week 9 slate. There are several directions we can go for our ATD and FTD bets in this game. My preference here is A.J. Brown.

Brown has scored in three of four games this year and seems to have a decided edge in this matchup. Jacksonville plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league but has struggled while doing so. The Jaguars are a bottom-10 defense in most relevant metrics when they play man defense. Brown is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL versus man coverage. He averages 5.2 yards per route run versus man, the highest number for any wide receiver with more than one target against man coverage this year. Brown also averaged 3.37 YPRR versus man last season. That was the seventh-highest mark among 201 pass catchers with at least 30 targets last year. Look for A.J. Brown to catch at least one touchdown pass in this game.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

DJ Moore (WR - CHI)

The Chicago Bears look to bounce back from their last-second loss at the hands of a Hail Mary from Jayden Daniels when they face the Arizona Cardinals. I like the Bears to jump out in front in this matchup, and expect wide receiver DJ Moore to be a big reason why. Moore has been quiet in each of Chicago's last two games, but he had a touchdown negated by a penalty in one of those games. Otherwise, we would be talking about a player with four touchdowns in his last four games. Perhaps we can take advantage of that with a favorable price on Moore's ATD and FTD lines. Arizona is last in the NFL in success rate as well as first down plus touchdown rate when playing zone coverage. Moore has historically been Chicago's best wide receiver versus zone coverage, and I like him to find paydirt this week.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Cooper Kupp (WR - LAR)

It may be difficult to fade Rams running back Kyren Williams when it comes to touchdown bets. Williams has scored in all seven of Los Angeles' games, finding the end zone 10 times. Because of that, however, sportsbooks are now pricing him accordingly. The best prices I found for Williams are -180 at Caesars for ATD and +400 on FanDuel for FTD. I don't hate the FTD price, but I am going to turn to wide receiver Cooper Kupp instead.

Kupp returned to action last week following a six-week layoff due to injury. He found the end zone and has now scored twice in three games. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed eight passing touchdowns over their last four games. Five of those have been caught by wideouts, while the other three were caught by tight ends. Even while Kupp and fellow wide receiver Puka Nacua were sidelined, tight end Colby Parkinson was unable to score a touchdown. With the Rams’ two star receivers back last week, Parkinson had just two targets. I do not expect him to be a factor. Nacua was more involved than Kupp was a week ago, but Nacua popped up on the injury report again this week due to his knee issue. The team is saying he will be fine, but that is enough for me to pivot to Kupp for my touchdown bets.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB - DET)

There should be no shortage of ATD and FTD candidates when the Detroit Lions face the Green Bay Packers. Detroit has averaged 43 points per game over their last four contests and Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in all five games that quarterback Jordan Love has played. The fly in the ointment is that Love is questionable due to a groin injury. I believe when all is said and done Love will play. However, his ailment combined with a matchup against a top-five Detroit defense has me leaning towards the Lions in this game. Green Bay ranks 26th in DVOA versus tight ends, and Sam LaPorta has scored in two of his last three games, but the lack of volume LaPorta has seen this season is a concern.

I am giving Jahmyr Gibbs the slightest of edges over David Montgomery in this matchup. Green Bay ranks eighth in the league in success versus power runs but is below average in yards per carry allowed as well as second-level and open field runs. Those numbers should tilt the scales a bit toward Gibbs, who is also more likely to be a factor in the receiving game. Although the Packers are above-average defensively in that regard. FanDuel has the best ATD and FTD pricing for both Gibbs and Montgomery. Both have the same FTD price, while Gibbs gets a five-cent discount on his ATD price compared to his counterpart. I am fine taking either player, but I am sticking with Gibbs here.

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