NFL Week 9 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
In Week 8, the 49ers notched their eighth consecutive regular-season win over the Rams to drop the defending Super Bowl champions below .500, while the Patriots beat the Jets for the 13th straight time to get back to .500 on the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Eagles covered massive spreads, while the Packers and Aaron Rodgers managed to cover as double-digit underdogs against the Bills.
For the second consecutive week, there will be three games with double-digit spreads, while every other game with the exception of the Panthers vs. Bengals has a spread of less than one touchdown.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
The Eagles are still undefeated, and they looked incredible in their victory over the Steelers. Many may disregard the Steelers and Kenny Pickett, but they had covered the spread in back-to-back weeks prior to their trip to Philadelphia.
Now, the Eagles will travel to Houston for a Thursday Night Football game against the Texans, who just lost to Malik Willis and the Titans. In that game, the Texans were unable to stop Derrick Henry who rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns.
This spread is already large, but with how these teams looked on Sunday, there is no reason to think that this spread isn’t going to keep moving in the Eagles’ favor and potentially past the key number.
Current Line: Eagles -13.5
Predicted Final Line: Eagles -14.5
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
This was supposed to be the year the Jets beat the Patriots. Instead, they lost and dropped to 5-3 on the season. Despite this disappointment, it’s surprising to see them getting so many points against the Bills.
The Bills have been favored by double-digits three times this season, and prior to Sunday night’s ATS loss to the Packers, they had been covering such spreads easily. As 10-point favorites over the Titans, they won by 34, and as 14-point favorites over the Steelers, they won by 35.
The Jets have been underdogs in seven of their eight games this season, and they have covered in four of those contests. The only other time they were underdogs by more than a touchdown, they not only covered, they won by 17. They may not have looked good on Sunday, but with the Jets at home, look for this line to move in their favor.
Current Line: Bills -12.5
Predicted Final Line: Bill -11.5
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders
Over the last three weeks, the Commanders have seen late line movement in their favor, and rightfully so. They have won all three games, despite being favored in only one, and they have covered the spread in every contest.
The Vikings have also covered in back-to-back games after starting the season just 1-4 against the spread. Yet, anyone who watched their game this week against the Cardinals knows that the Vikings could have very easily lost if the Cardinals didn’t make so many mistakes.
Taylor Heinicke played well with Carson Wentz out, and the Commanders turned the ball over just once against the Colts. With this game being played in Washington, and with the Vikings’ season struggles to cover the spread, look for this to drop beneath the key number by kickoff.
Current Line: Vikings -3.5
Predicted Final Line: Vikings -2.5
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Two of the most disappointing teams in the league meet on Sunday in Tampa Bay. The 49ers completed the season sweep over the Rams, while the Buccaneers dropped their third in a row, despite being a popular spread play on Thursday.
The Buccaneers are giving a field goal in this one, but with the public disappointment in Tom Brady and their offense, it’s hard to imagine that the public won’t pour bets in on the Rams. The Rams haven’t been great this season, but even as the defending Super Bowl champions, they are less public than the Bucs.
Current Line: Buccaneers -3
Predicted Final Line: Buccaneers -2
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
We likely won’t know whether Malik Willis or Ryan Tannehill is getting the start on Sunday night until close to kickoff. Willis did what he had to do in his NFL debut, which wasn’t much. He threw for just 55 yards but was able to get a win thanks to Derrick Henry.
Many think the best way to beat the Chiefs is to run the ball and keep it out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. However, the Chiefs’ run defense is actually the third-best in the NFL this season. They are allowing just 92.0 yards per game, though they have given up 127.0 yards per game in their last three.
If Ryan Tannehill plays, then this line will move in favor of Tennessee, and it may even drop below 10. But if he doesn’t, which seems likely, then this line is going to move heavily in favor of the Chiefs, and maybe grow to as much as two touchdowns.
Current Line: Chiefs -11
Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -13
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Two of the most frustrating against the spread teams in the NFL close out Week 9. Both teams are just 3-5 against the spread this season, though both have had numerous opportunities to really inflate that record.
Both teams covered in Week 8 as small underdogs, and the Ravens moved to 3-1 ATS in road games this year. Though the Ravens have been good away from home, their fourth-quarter struggles make them a hard team to trust giving points this year.
Even in their losses, the Saints have looked like a much more complete team since Andy Dalton took over the starting role. With that in mind, look for the line to move in favor of New Orleans, dipping below the key number it currently sits at.
Current Line: Ravens -3
Predicted Final Line: Ravens -2
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.