NFL Week 9 First TD Scorers Picks & Predictions (2024)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 9!
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NFL Week 9 First TD Scorers Picks & Predictions (2024)
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson has scored four touchdowns in his last three games and has a great matchup this week. The Cowboys allow 154.6 rushing yards per game, with an average of 4.8 yards per attempt. They have also allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season. Robinson averages 71% of snaps, while Tyler Allgeier plays 30%. Robinson also averages 4.4 targets per game. He should find the end zone again this week, hopefully early.
Pick: Bijan Robinson (+500 via FanDuel)
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
The Commanders did not score as much last week but should find the end zone more this week. The Giants allow 141.8 rushing yards per game and have been gashed in the past two weeks. They are allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games. He has had double-digit carries in every game but one and has six rushing TDs. All have come inside the red zone, where he leads the team with 25 attempts. He is a great value given his usage.
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. (+700 via FanDuel)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
I have taken J.K. Dobbins several times this season, but it is hard to stay away from him with the Chargers' style of football. They allow the fewest points (13) per game and have the third-highest time of possession per game. They also allow 1.3 points per first quarter, which makes it hard to take the opposing team. Points could be at a premium in this matchup, so Dobbins is a solid play after playing 82% of snaps last game.
Pick: J.K. Dobbins (+500 via DraftKings)
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman is starting to ascend in this offense. He has nine receptions for 195 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. He averages 68% of snaps but has played more than 75% in the previous two games. Josh Allen has been airing it out over the last two weeks. The matchup against the Dolphins is solid, and Coleman's usage is trending in the right direction. He has eight targets in the red zone, which leads the team. Coleman is the best option in the second tier of this market.
Pick: Keon Coleman (+1200 via FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Taysom Hill returned to the lineup last week after missing three games after dealing with fractured ribs. He played 40% of snaps and received eight opportunities: four carries and four targets. The Panthers have the worst defense in the league, especially their run defense. Last week was the first time they did not allow a rushing TD to a running back all season, but Jaleel McLaughlin scored on a pass from Bo Nix. Derek Carr is questionable and could return this week. I would not be surprised if they scheme a play for Hill near the goal line.
Pick: Taysom Hill (+1100 via DraftKings)
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Drake Maye suffered a concussion last week and could miss this week if he is not able to clear the concussion protocol. Hunter Henry averages 81% of snaps this season and leads the team in receiving yards and receptions. He also leads the team with six red zone targets. He has been Drake Maye's favourite target but was also utilized a lot by Jacoby Brissett. Henry's odds are too low this week against the Titans, who allowed two TDs to the Lion's tight ends.
Pick: Hunter Henry (+1400 via DraftKings)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins is dealing with a hamstring injury and may miss a second straight game. It would be good news for Chase, who saw his targets jump to 11 last week, up from his average of 7.4. The Raiders allow 26.3 points per game and 4.1 points per first quarter. The Bengals only allow 2.1 points per first quarter, third-lowest per game. The Bengals will try to get Chase the ball early because they may end up blowing them out.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase (+600 via FanDuel)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has not scored a rushing touchdown since week four, but has been active on the ground. He has 81 carries for 501 yards this season, which is 6.2 yards per attempt. The Broncos have not played a mobile quarterback this season, so there are few stats for comparison. Both of Jackson's touchdowns have come inside the red zone, where he has 10 rushing attempts. I would not be surprised to see more designed runs for him this week with Patrick Surtain II lurking.
Pick: Lamar Jackson (+800 via Caesars)
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
The Bears are the second-worst scoring offense in the first quarter. They average 1.4 points per first quarter, while the Cardinals average 5.3. James Conner averages 67% of snaps but has played 80% or more in his last two games. He ran 20 times for 53 yards and a TD last week against the Dolphins. The Bears allow 4.7 rushing yards per attempt but have not allowed a touchdown to a running back in two weeks. The usage for Conner is the key to this play, alongside the Bears' slow starts on offense.
Pick: James Conner (+500 via DraftKings)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have not scored in the first quarter this season, which is unbelievable heading into week nine. The Jaguars are also bottom-five with 2.5 points per first quarter. The Eagles end the first-quarter drought this week. A.J. Brown has seven receptions of 20 yards or longer and has been explosive this season. He has played in four games this season and has scored in three. He averages 19.4 yards per reception and has a juicy matchup this week. The Jaguars allow the second-most passing yards per game and 17 passing TDs. Brown is a smash play against this secondary.
Pick: A.J. Brown (+600 via DraftKings)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is dealing with a groin injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. The Packers have a bye next week, which could factor into the decision to play him. This is a massive divisional matchup for both teams, and the Packers will want to take advantage of playing at home. Josh Jacobs injured his ankle last week, but the team is optimistic he will play. He is averaging 5.5 yards per attempt in the last two weeks and has scored three times. The Packers should lean on Jacobs heavily.
Pick: Josh Jacobs (+650 via DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks did not look good last week against the Bills. DK Metcalf missed the game, which likely hindered the operation, but they only managed 10 points against the Bills. Kupp played 58% of snaps in his first game back from injury last week and received eight targets. He caught five passes for 51 yards and a TD. Kupp has only played in three games this season but has six red zone opportunities, which leads Rams receivers. He has caught three for 20 yards and two touchdowns. Kupp, Stafford's go-to guy, will look for him near the goal line.
Pick: Cooper Kupp (+850 via DraftKings)