NFL Week 9 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2026)

by Travis Pulver |
Nov 07, 2026

Week 8 wasn’t great for the underdogs - 3-11 straight up (SU) and 5-9 against the spread (ATS). That brings the underdogs’ season totals to 47-69-5 SU and 70-50 ATS. With injuries piling up, several games this week could go either way depending on how well backups play. Which NFL underdog bets are worth targeting this week? Here are my top three underdog NFL Week 9 picks.

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NFL Week 9 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets

Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts

As bad as Dallas’ defense is, if the Colts hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor 25 times, Indianapolis can win. Heck, if they give it to him 15 times and Seth McGowan gets 15 carries, they'll probably win. There’s plenty of reason to doubt Dallas; the only question is whether the Colts will lean on the run game as much as they should.

You just can't trust Dallas to play good football against anyone. But the Colts do have a tremendous run game when they actually use it. If they do, Indianapolis at +190 on the Moneyline may be the best value play of the day.

Pick: Colts Moneyline (+190 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots

New England seemed to come alive and play great football a few weeks ago against Buffalo and Vegas. But then they escaped with a win over the Jets, lost to the Bears and didn’t play well in a win over lowly Miami. Green Bay, meanwhile, is improving on defense, and Jordan Love has the passing game humming.

Factor in an improving run game, and there's enough reason to believe the Packers can pull off a road upset this week.

Pick: Packers Moneyline (+140 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

I am not sure why the Saints are favored in this game. They are 2-5 on the year and 0-4 at home. Their offense has been mediocre on its best days, and the defense isn’t good - No. 28 in yards allowed (372.7 per game) and No. 29 in points allowed (27.7 per game).

OK, so Deshaun Watson is probably out, leaving Shedeur Sanders to start. But the offense wasn’t great with Watson at quarterback. Sanders didn't look great last season, but if Todd Monken can make Watson look respectable, I've got high hopes for what he can do with Sanders.

Pick: Browns Moneyline (+140 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have been playing really good football the last few weeks, but they haven't played a defense quite like Tampa Bay's. Caleb Williams will have a much tougher time getting the offense on track against the Buccaneers than in the last few weeks. Factor in how well Tampa Bay has run the ball the last couple of weeks, and a scenario could develop where Williams doesn’t get a chance to work out the kinks.

Chicago’s defense ranks No. 4 against the run, so the Buccaneers’ all-run game plan may not work this week. But at +240, I'm willing to take that bet. Anything lower, probably not, but I'm in at these plus-money odds.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline (+240 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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