NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
With six teams on bye, you’d think there would be fewer appealing player props than usual. Strangely, that’s not the case. I like the Week 9 menu. It suits the eye, much like a dogleg left that pleases a right-to-left player.
We’ll dig into this week’s selections in a moment. But first, here’s a quick recap of last week’s selections …
The wins: P.J. Walker over 184.5 passing yards, Derrick Henry over 98.5 rushing yards, Jakobi Meyers over 48.5 receiving yards, Dawson Knox under 33.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Derek Carr over 255.5 passing yards, Kyle Pitts under 34.5 receiving yards.
Let’s get to the selections for Week 9 …
Last week: 4-2
Season record: 32-21
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.
NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 262.5 passing yards
Rodgers hasn’t hit this yardage total all season. He’s 0-for-8. Rodgers’ yardage prop is elevated because of his Week 9 opponent, the Lions, who are giving up 276.7 passing yards per game and rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. But the Green Bay passing attack simply hasn’t been good this year. With Davante Adams now playing for the Raiders, the Packers don’t have any playmakers at wide receiver. Rodgers is averaging just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, more than a full yard below his career average. As bad as Detroit’s pass defense is, its run defense is equally terrible, and there’s a chance Green Bay takes a run-heavy approach. The Packers are 3.5-point favorites in Detroit, and Green Bay has averaged 30 RB carries in its three wins this season. (Note: The under is -110 as opposed to the usual -115, making this play even more attractive.)
Justin Herbert OVER 282.5 passing yards
The only catch here with one of the better quarterbacks in the league facing a flammable, injury-riddled Falcons pass defense is that the Chargers are likely to be without WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That’s a lot of missing firepower. But the Atlanta secondary is missing a lot of firepower, too. They’re going to be without their second-best cornerback, Casey Hayward (shoulder), and they’ll likely be without their best cornerback, A.J. Terrell (hamstring), who missed Week 8 and hadn’t practiced this week as of Thursday. The Falcons have given up a league-high 2,455 passing yards for an average of 306.9 per game. I think Herbert can make do with RB Austin Ekeler, TE Gerald Everett, and WRs Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter, and surpass this total against a decimated defensive backfield. Herbert has beaten this number in 4-of-7 games this year and is averaging 287.0 passing yards per start.
Sam Ehlinger UNDER 202.5 passing yards
Let’s see … we have a young quarterback making his second NFL start, facing a Bill Belichick defense in Foxborough. I’m smashing the under here. Ehlinger was 17-of-23 for 201 yards last week against Washington. Here’s guessing we see another limited number of pass attempts for Ehlinger this week as the Colts try to avoid throwing their second-year QB to the wolves. (Note: The under is -125. I’d prefer to get a slightly lower yardage total here at the standard -115, but I can’t pass up this bet.)
Raheem Mostert OVER 65.5 rushing yards
Mostert has beaten this number in three of his last five games. He’s had no fewer than 14 carries in any game during that stretch. The Bears have given up 117.3 rushing yards to RBs per game, the second-highest total in the league. And the Bears were that bad against the run before they traded away stud linebacker Roquan Smith earlier this week. Chicago has faced 193 rushing attempts by opposing RBs; only Houston has faced more.
Joe Mixon UNDER 67.5 rushing yards
The Bengals’ running game has been terrible. PFF grades the Bengals 22nd in run blocking. Mixon has failed to reach this number in 6-of-8 games this year. He’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and he’s rushed for fewer than 60 yards in each of his last three games. The fear for the under bettor here is that the Bengals go up big on the Panthers and let Mixon hammer away on the ground in the second half. But in the three games that the Bengals have won by 10 or more points, Mixon has averaged 47.7 rushing yards and failed to hit this number in all three games.
Travis Etienne UNDER 77.5 rushing yards
It’s no fun betting against this guy. Etienne has topped this number in three consecutive games, and he’s run for more than 100 yards in each of his last two. Since Week 5, Etienne has averaged 7.4 yards per carry. Amazing. But I also think it’s unsustainable. Etienne had 24 carries against the Broncos in London last week. That’s a lot of work, and he had to fly across the Atlantic Ocean afterward. He’s facing a Raiders run defense that has given up the seventh-fewest rushing yards to RBs and is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry.
Leonard Fournette UNDER 79.5 rushing + receiving yards
Fournette has fallen short of this number in each of his first two games and in 5-of-8 games on the year. He’s averaging 3.4 yards per carry and hasn’t run for more than 65 yards in a game since erupting for 127 yards in Week 1 (which seems like a lifetime ago). Fournette has had some big receiving games this year, but he’s drawn only three targets in each of his last two games as rookie Rachaad White has started to take on a bigger role. In fact, I see two ways to win this bet: (1) pure underperformance by Fournette; and (2) an abrupt shift in workload toward White, who’s shown more juice.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 68.5 receiving yards
Waddle has been playing through a shoulder injury — and playing well. He’s topped this number in three straight games and in 6-of-8 on the year. Waddle is likely to run a majority of his routes against Bears CB Kyler Gordon, who’s giving up an 81% catch rate and allowing 2.08 yards per route into his coverage (per PFF). Waddle has been uber-efficient this season, averaging 17.3 yards per catch and 11.5 yards per target.
T.J. Hockenson UNDER 35.5 receiving yards
The Vikings acquired Hockenson at the trade deadline earlier this week. Not only does Hockenson figure to play limited snaps in his first game with his new team, but he’ll be facing a Washington defense that’s been smothering TEs all year. The Commanders have allowed 23 catches, 226 yards and one touchdown to tight ends.
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