NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)
We're a little overloaded on overs with this week's selections, which is never a good feeling. I prefer a healthy balance between overs and unders.
On the other hand, last week's selections were tilted toward the overs, too, and things worked out pretty well.
Before we get to this week's selections, a quick recap of Week 8 …
The wins: Jameis Winston over 229.5 passing yards, Drake Maye under 210.5 passing yards, Joe Mixon over 75.5 rushing yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 45.5 rushing yards, Ray Davis over 21.5 rushing yards, Cedric Tillman over 37.5 receiving yards, Kyle Pitts over 42.5 receiving yards, Rachaad White over 20.5 receiving yards, Tyreek Hill under 84.5 receiving yards
The losses: Jordan Love over 258.5 passing yards, Alvin Kamara under 52.5 rushing yards, Jordan Mason over 80.5 rushing yards, Darius Slayton under 26.5 receiving yards.
- Last week: 9-4
- Season record: 44-40
Fitz’s Favorite Week 9 Player Prop Bets
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Oct. 31.
Jayden Daniels OVER 228.5 passing yards
If you discount the Week 7 game that Daniels had to leave early with a rib injury, he's cleared this number in five consecutive starts, averaging 264 passing yards per game over that stretch. Despite being a rookie, Daniels has been ruthlessly efficient in his first NFL season, completing 71.8% of his throws and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I expect him to clear this low bar against a Giants pass defense that has the third-highest opponent passer rating in the league (104.3).
J.K. Dobbins UNDER 69.5 rushing yards
After starting the season with a pair of 100-yard rushing games against the Raiders and Panthers, Dobbins has topped 57 rushing yards just once in his last five games. He's averaged 3.2 yards per carry over that span. Not even favorable matchups have been helping. Dobbins had 14 carries for 40 yards against the Cardinals two weeks ago, and last week, he had 17 carries for 57 yards against a Saints run defense that ranks last in the league in DVOA. Dobbins and the Chargers go on the road this week to face the Browns, who have allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards to running backs. Fade the slumping Dobbins.
Taysom Hill OVER 20.5 rushing yards
The Saints' do-everything hybrid QB/RB/TE could be asked to make a significant contribution to the running game this week since New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara is playing with a broken hand. Hill is averaging 4.5 carries and 24.3 rushing yards a game this season. His best rushing day of 2024 was a 35-yard day against the Panthers in Week 1, and Hill faces the Panthers again this week. Carolina's run defense has been steamrolled this season. The Panthers have yielded a league-high 1,237 rushing yards. Hill also had a 75-yard rushing day against the Panthers last season, so this matchup seems to suit him.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 63.5 rushing yards
Gibbs has topped this number in five of his last six games, averaging 91.8 rushing yards a game over that span. Gibbs is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this season after averaging 5.2 yards per carry in his rookie year. He doesn't need a lot of rushing attempts to put up impressive yardage totals, yet Gibbs has been getting a steady diet of carries. He's logged at least 11 carries in every game this season. Gibbs should be able to clear this number against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing RBs.
Khalil Shakir UNDER 48.5 receiving yards
Shakir had nine catches for 107 yards against the Seahawks last week on 10 targets, but all of those numbers were season highs. Shakir hasn't had more than seven targets or 72 yards in any other game this season, and now the target competition in Buffalo has become fierce. The Bills traded for Amari Cooper two weeks ago, rookie WR Keon Coleman is starting to emerge as a playmaker, and TE Dalton Kincaid and RB James Cook are also involved as pass catchers. The Bills are running the ball at the eighth-highest rate in the league, and Buffalo faces a run-funnel Miami defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to WRs. The Bills might not throw all that much on Sunday.
Malik Nabers OVER 72.5 receiving yards
This number seems too good to be true. Nabers is averaging 12.2 targets, 7.7 catches and 83.0 receiving yards per game. The Giants face the Commanders on Sunday. In an earlier meeting with Washington in Week 2, Nabers was targeted 18 times and had 10 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown. The Commanders have given up the seventh-most receiving yards to WRs. Smash the over.
Cedric Tillman OVER 48.5 receiving yards
We hit the over on Tillman's receiving yardage last week, and we're going back to the well. Over his last two games, Tillman has 15 catches for 180 yards on 21 targets. QB Jameis Winston made his first start of the season for the Browns last week. He targeted Tillman nine times, completing seven of those throws for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Not only is Tillman drawing a lot of targets, but he's drawing high-value targets downfield. Tillman's average depth of target this season is 11.2 yards. The Browns have a difficult matchup against the Chargers, but Winston is an aggressive downfield thrower, and Tillman seems to be establishing himself as Cleveland's No.1 receiver. I like Tillman’s chances to clear this relatively low bar.
A.J. Brown OVER 83.5 receiving yards
This number is simply too low for a receiver of Brown's caliber. He's had 84 or more receiving yards in all four of the games he's played this season and is averaging 102 yards per contest. Brown also gets a terrific matchup against a leaky Jacksonville pass defense that ranks dead last in the league in DVOA and is allowing 177.1 receiving yards per game to WRs. Pounce on the over.