NFL Week 9 Preview & Predictions: Broncos vs. Ravens (2024)

by Travis Pulver |
Nov 03, 2024

Who would have thought that this Week 9 matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens could have playoff implications? But with the loss to the Cleveland Browns last week, the Ravens are no longer in control of the AFC North, leaving them in a dogfight for one of three wild card spots.

Of course, there isn’t much competition for a wild card spot outside of the Broncos and Chargers, and the Ravens could regain control of the division again. However, there is still plenty of time for someone like the Bengals, Dolphins, Colts, or Jets to recover and steal a wild card spot should the Ravens make another mistake.

So, all is not won or lost in this game for the Ravens, but a loss sure would eliminate any room for error.

NFL Week 9 Early Start Game of the Week: Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Details

Opening Line: Ravens -10.5, O/U 43
Closing Line: Ravens -9, O/U 46.5
Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: December 4, 2022-Baltimore Ravens won, 10-9

Overview

Are the Broncos being drastically underestimated in this game?

The Ravens do have one of the most explosive offenses in the league this year, with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson behind center and a resurgent Derrick Henry in the backfield with him. They have the second-highest-scoring offense in the league, averaging over 30 points per game.

Denver averages just over 300 yards of offense per game and 21.6 points. Bo Nix is rapidly improving during his rookie campaign, but comparing him and Lamar Jackson would be unfair. So, how on Earth can the Broncos be expected to keep up? Or can they?

That would explain Baltimore having an 83.33% chance of winning. However, while it is easy to look at the offenses for each team in this game, the importance each defense will play can’t be overstated.

Baltimore has had a good passing game this season, but the team’s success still relies on the run game (200 ypg). The Broncos’ defense is giving up 106.4 ypg on the ground and just 98 ypg over their last three while not giving a ton of ground to opposing passing attacks (176.3 ypg allowed).

Does this mean the Broncos could give the Ravens a good fight? Maybe, but when you consider who their defense has earned its reputation against (i.e., Jets, Raiders, Saints, Panthers, etc.), their numbers become less impressive.

Trends

Ravens lead the all-time series with the Broncos 10-6 and have won the last three.
The Broncos have a better point differential this season (+53) than the Broncos (+33).
Denver’s pass defense has been tougher on the road (162 ypg allowed) than at home (190.5 ypg allowed).
Baltimore averages 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game at home; Denver allows .5 rushing touchdowns per game on the road.

Bottom Line

An argument can be made for the Broncos making this one interesting....on paper. The Denver defense has performed well for much of the season, but the best offense it has faced belongs to the Buccaneers. The rest of them are largely forgettable.

Baltimore’s offense will present a challenge to the Broncos D that it has not seen this year. However, the Broncos do have a lifeline-Raven’s league-worst pass defense. But can we trust a talented work-in-progress in Bo Nix to exploit it enough to keep Denver in the game?

I want to say-maybe. Baltimore has shown its imperfections against lesser teams this season, i.e., Raiders, Browns, Cowboys. So, it is not inconceivable that Denver could pull off an upset. However, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Pick: UNDER 46.5 points

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