NFL Week 9 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Each week, I’ll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
Week 9 Best Parlay
- Washington Commanders +3
- Indianapolis Colts +5.5
- Arizona Cardinals -120
- Odds: +582
These are my three favorite bets in Week 9. The Commanders are a hold-your-nose type of play, but they’ve been more competent since replacing Carson Wentz with Taylor Heinicke. The Commanders also play a significant amount of man coverage and could make life uncomfortable for Kirk Cousins with an adjusted sack rate that ranks seventh in the league. Cousins has been far worse throwing against man coverage versus zone, and it feels like a sell-high spot on an overrated Vikings team.
I fully admit the Colts are a disgusting dog this week. But Sam Ehlinger wasn’t bad in his first career start, and I trust a Colts defense that ranks sixth in rush defense DVOA to keep New England’s rushing game at bay and force QB Mac Jones to beat them on third downs.
As for the Cardinals, I’m admittedly scared to lay points with Kliff Kingsbury. But the Cardinals’ offense has looked like an entirely different unit with DeAndre Hopkins back in the picture. I’m also selling the Seahawks after this improbable but impressive run.
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) at Chicago Bears, Total 45.5
- Under 45.5
- Raheem Mostert over 61.5 rushing yards
- Justin Fields over 37.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +514
While the strongest winds of the weekend will be out of the area by kickoff Sunday, sustained winds between 13-25 MPH are expected in Chicago Sunday afternoon. The wind and a sloppy Soldier Field turf could take away some of Miami’s game-breaking speed and explosiveness. Mostert has topped this prop in four of his last five games, and I expect that to continue against a Bears offense that ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA. I also feel books haven’t properly accounted for Chicago’s offense changing to fit Fields’ strength. Against a blitz-heavy Dolphins defense, I’d expect Fields to often extend plays with his legs.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Washington Commanders | Total 43.5
- Commanders +3
- T.J. Hockenson under 35.5 receiving yards
- Kirk Cousins under 252.5 passing yards
- Odds: +540
As I mentioned, Kirk Cousins struggles mightily against teams that primarily play man coverage. I like the Commanders to pull the straight-up upset as well. I’m betting on Hockenson not seeing a full workload as he gets accustomed to Minnesota’s playbook.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5) | Total 40.5
- Colts +5
- Sam Ehlinger under 203 passing yards
- Odds: +250
This game is ugly, especially with Jonathan Taylor not playing. That’ll make life harder on Ehlinger against a Bill Belichick defense. However, this is the exact spot to back the Colts, as Frank Reich is 14-8-2 as a road underdog during his Colts’ tenure.
Buffalo Bills (-11.5) at New York Jets | Total 46
- Under 46
- Zach Wilson anytime interception
- Josh Allen under 278.5 passing yards
- Odds: +423
The Bills and Jets both possess top-10 defenses, according to DVOA. And I’m banking on New York’s cornerback combo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed to contain Buffalo’s high-powered passing attack. The Jets can also generate pressure without blitzing, a key to containing Josh Allen. I wouldn’t expect the Jets to score more than 17 points in this game, and Wilson throwing an interception is probably my favorite bet of the weekend.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons | Total 49.5
- Chargers -3
- Joshua Palmer over 64.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +257
This is a fishy line, as the free-falling Chargers are laying three on the road off a bye against the first-place Falcons. Can you say buy-low, sell-high? The Los Angeles receiving core will be without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, meaning Palmer could thrive as Justin Herbert’s top option in the passing game.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars | Total 47.5
- Over 47.5
- Evan Engram over 40.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +269
I don’t want any part of this game between two teams that I simply can’t figure out. For that reason, I’ll just bet on points coming against two lackluster defensive units. Engram has cleared this prop in three of his last four contests.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) | Total 42.5
- Under 42.5
- Cincinnati -7
- Odds: +257
Another game I don’t want to get involved with. The Bengals’ offense is tough to back, considering it looked completely lost without Ja’Marr Chase and continues to have struggles along the offensive line. However, Carolina ranks 3oth in adjusted sack rate and does not dominate in the trenches against the ground. The Bengals’ defense ranks 8th in DVOA and should be able to stymie the P.J. Walker-led Panthers.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions | Total 49.5
- Packers -3.5
- Aaron Jones over 65.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +253
The Lions’ defense is an embarrassment. And I expect this to be a get-right opportunity for a Packers team that desperately needs a win. To do so, they’ll have to feed their best offensive player. I expect Jones to run wild and clear this prop easily.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2) | Total 49
- Cardinals -125
- DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions
- Odds: +199
As I mentioned earlier, the Cardinals are playing better offensively, thanks to Hopkins. I expect Kyler Murray to hit him early and often, and another double-digit reception output is definitely on the table. The Cardinals closed as 2.5-point favorites on October 16 at Seattle. Now they’re only laying 2 at home? Fishy.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Total 42.5
- Buccaneers -2.5
- Chris Godwin over 66.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +252
I’m riding with the Buccaneers in the Disappointment Bowl because they have a more well-rounded roster. The Rams’ offense is in shambles and ranks 23rd in DVOA. Tampa’s offense has struggled to put up points, but Tom Brady has been able to move the ball down the field despite an inability to run the ball. Brady should hit Godwin often against a Rams pass defense that ranks 19th in DVOA and has nothing aside from Jalen Ramsey. This is also a revenge spot for Tampa after falling to Los Angeles at home in the playoffs last year.
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