NFL Week 9 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
We’re heading into Week 9 of the 2025 National Football League (NFL) regular season. And, we’re hurtling toward the unofficial halfway point of the season, too. And, we’re only a few weeks away from Thanksgiving, and when it seems that the football season really seems to get heated up as the weather cools significantly.
For our second straight week, we have a traditional 1:00 p.m. ET start time on Sunday, with no international game this week. That changes in Week 10 and 11, however, as we get games in Germany and Spain the next two weekends. Let’s build our bankroll with our best NFL Week 9 totals picks.
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Best NFL Week 9 Totals Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Line Movements & Public Leans
Listed are some of the largest line movements for Week 9 from opening to time of publishing:
- Bears at Bengals: 48.5 to 51.5
- 49ers at Giants: 44.5 to 48.5
- Colts at Steelers: 44.5 to 40.5
- Broncos at Texans: 45.5 to 39.5
- Chiefs at Bills: 48.5 to 52.5
- Cardinals at Cowboys (MNF): 47.5 to 54.5
This week, there isn’t as much movement on certain totals, and we have four more teams on a bye, too. Just for your information, I only try and include the games with the largest line movement, generally two points or more, from open.
Stats & More
In Week 8, 12 of the 13 games were decided by 10+ points, so there wasn’t a lot of drama on the field, in terms of the straight-up win-loss result. However, we did have some drama with the totals.
Last week’s Thursday night game between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers was a bummer if you had under 44.5. It was 24-10 in favor of the Bolts heading to the fourth quarter. The Chargers made it 34-10 with 7:01 left in regulation, and the under was looking OK. However, a 45-yard field goal from Cameron Dicker with 1:56 to go, a rather meaningless score for the result of the game, caused the game to flip from under to over.
If you had the over 41.5, or bet earlier in Week 8, when the San Francisco 49ers-Houston Texans game opened at 45.5, my condolences. We had 23 points on the board at halftime, so you knew it would be a squeeze. However, with 38 points after three quarters, with Houston up 23-15, over bettors were feeling good. The Texans got a 30-yard field goal from Ka’imi Fairbairn to make it 26-15 with 9:41 to go in regulation. Good shape, right? Well, that’s how the game ended, as we had no more scoring the rest of the way. Ouch.
Each week, we’ll try and look at some interesting stats. This week, we’ll take a look at team red-zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only). The Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFL in the category at 85%, with an even better 90.91% rate at home. Last season, in a Super Bowl-winning campaign, the Eagles were just 58.33% in the category, so do with that what you will. The Washington Commanders are second at 75%, while the Pittsburgh Steelers lead the AFC with a 73.68% mark, up from 48.21% in 2024.
On the flip side, the Las Vegas Raiders are dead-last at 38.89%, with the Houston Texans at 42.11% and the New Orleans Saints at 42.86%. The Baltimore Ravens managed a 73.97% mark in 2024, but they’re down to just 45.83%. However, that’s likely because Lamar Jackson (hamstring) has missed the past month. That number is expected to rise in the coming weeks.
The Broncos (6-2) and the Texans (3-4) meet at NRG Stadium in Houston at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on FOX.
Denver has racked up 77 total points in the past five quarters, including a 44-24 win against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, nearly taking care of the over (52) on its own. The Broncos had scored 28 or fewer points in the first six games, and 21 or fewer points in four of the six outings. The under cashed in four straight games from Weeks 3-6 for the Broncos, while the under was 5-1 in the first six outings, so be careful.
For Houston, we touched on the over last week, or the push, which should easily have been an over. The Texans have scored 26+ points in three of the past four games, but they’ve allowed just 52 points in that four-game span, with 27 of those points allowed in Week 7 in Seattle. The over is 2-0-1 in the past three games.
The total for this game has dipped below the 40-point line, and with the likes of a confident Bo Nix, J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton on one side, with a healthy Nico Collins back for C.J. Stroud, we should at least get a 23-20 kind of a game, right?
Pick: Over 39.5 Points (-110)
The 49ers (5-3) and the Giants (2-6) lock horns at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., and the game can be viewed or streamed on CBS.
San Francisco had the much-mentioned push (41) last week in Houston. The Niners have scored 20 or fewer points in each of the past three games, averaging just 18 points per game (PPG). The offense is getting healthier, as George Kittle returned two games ago from a lengthy injury, while Ricky Pearsall appears to be close to a return. Brock Purdy has been sidelined a majority of the season, but Mac Jones has been just as good, if not better, as a caretaker of the Niners’ offense.
The Giants have lost their two most exciting offensive weapons. Malik Nabers went down a few weeks ago due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament, recently undergoing surgery, while rookie back Cam Skattebo suffered a dislocated right ankle in Philadelphia last week. He is also sidelined for the season. It’s Jaxson Dart under center, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. is the top back, with Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as the top options in the passing game.
The latter are good players, but not great, and it should be a test for the G-Men to generate a healthy amount of points. In addition, the 49ers are still a bit banged up; they’ve also had trouble scoring points, and a cross-country trip is an added obstacle.
Will this be a defensive slog? Maybe not. But a total approaching 50 seems quite a bit high.
Pick: Under 48.5 Points (-105)
The Jaguars (4-3) head to Las Vegas to battle the Raiders (2-5) at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX.
The good news for the Raiders is that Brock Bowers (knee) was able to practice in full on Wednesday, as did Jakobi Meyers (knee). The return of those two would be a huge boost for the offense of the Raiders. Geno Smith might look like the impressive quarterback we saw earlier in the season, rather than the shell we’ve seen trying to make it work with Michael Mayer and Tre Tucker.
The Raiders have averaged 22 PPG in their past two home games, while allowing 25+ points in four of the past five games. Yes, Las Vegas was blanked 31-0 at Kansas City in Week 7, but it is coming off a bye, and it is well rested, with those two key offensive players likely to be available.
As far as the Jaguars are concerned, they tumbled to a 35-7 loss in London against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 7. But, they’ve also had two full weeks to rest. It should be all systems go for the offense, with only Brian Thomas Jr. as a slight injury concern. The over is 2-0 in two road games in North America this season, with the Jaguars averaging 26.5 PPG in those two games, while allowing 26 PPG.
With two rested teams full of energy, let’s go high on this game.
Pick: Over 44.5 Points (-115)
Week 9 Parlay
- Broncos at Texans: Over 39.5 Points (-110)
- 49ers at Giants: Under 48.5 Points (-105)
- Jaguars at Raiders: Over 44.5 Points (-115)
Parlay Odds: +596
Week 9 Teaser Parlay (8 Points)
- Broncos at Texans: Over 31.5 Points
- 49ers at Giants: Under 56.5 Points
- Jaguars at Raiders: Over 36.5 Points
Teaser Parlay Odds: +100
We hit our three-team teaser again in Week 8, cashing for the second consecutive week. And, for the second straight week, we needed those extra points. The Dolphins-Falcons (44.5) missed the over by a half-point without the teaser, while the Buccaneers-Saints (46.5) went under both ways. The Titans-Colts (46.5) needed every bit of the 8-point teaser, too, as Indy won 38-14. Again, that’s why I enjoy a good teaser.
For Week 9, I like a parlay with those three totals, along with the three-team teaser. Again, as my good friend, Chris David, would say back in the day at VegasInsider.com, “Press, Pass or Fade, but in the end - Good Luck.”