NFL Wild Card Power Rankings – Against the Spread (2021)
The NFL’s regular season is over, and now, the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy truly begins. With a loaded Wild Card Weekend, featuring six games for the first time, there is sure to be a lot of betting going on. Because of this, we thought it would be nice to make the power rankings look a little different this week. Rather than ranking the Chiefs at one and Washington at 14, we decided we’d rank each of the 14 playoff teams based on how they fared against the spread in the regular season. We will also be listing each team’s best performance ATS and the game that was so close to being an ATS win but ended as a heartbreaking loss.
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14) Cleveland Browns (ATS Record: 6-10)
The Cleveland Browns are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002, and while they won 11 games this season, covering the spread was not something they did often. In fact, Cleveland did not cover the spread in a single game against an AFC North foe this season. And who do they get in the Wild Card round? The Pittsburgh Steelers, an AFC North opponent. No one would argue that Kevin Stefanski hasn’t done a great job with this team, but the Browns may be the surest thing to avoid this postseason from a betting perspective. The only team with a worse ATS record than the Browns this season: the Dallas Cowboys.
Best ATS win: 20-6 win over the Giants (-6)
Worst Beat: 47-42 loss to Ravens (+3)
13) Tennessee Titans (ATS Record: 7-9)
If you’ve been betting overs when the Titans take the field, then you are thrilled. The total went over in 12 of the Titans’ 16 games this season, the most of any team in the postseason. However, their ATS record leaves a lot more to be desired. The Titans ended the season two games below .500 ATS, and when they failed to cover, they normally weren’t very close. They were favored in 11 games this season but only covered the spread in four of those contests. If there is one bit of positivity, it’s that they were 3-2 when underdogs. This weekend, they are home underdogs against the Ravens.
Best ATS Win: 42-16 win over the Bills (+3)
Worst Beat: 33-30 win over Jaguars (-7)
12) Kansas City Chiefs (ATS Record: 7-9)
There aren’t many people who would argue that the Chiefs aren’t the best team in the entire NFL. However, they were also one of the worst teams ATS this season. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they were favored in 14 of their 16 games, meaning that simply winning was never enough for them. They went off as double-digit favorites six times this season, but they only covered the spread in two of those contests. They even lost to the Raiders when they were favored by 11. Many bettors will remember their ATS loss to the Bucs, considering they were in total control from start to finish and held a 17-0 lead at one point. The Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but their offense has not pulled away from teams like it was doing a season ago. If the public is all over Kansas City, remember that they’ve been wrong quite a bit this year.
Best ATS Win: 35-9 win over the Jets (-20)
Worst Beat: 27-24 win over the Buccaneers (-3.5)
11) Chicago Bears (ATS Record: 8-8)
The Bears are tied with Washington for the fewest games favored of any of the 14 playoff teams. Chicago found themselves favored in just three contests all season long, and they only covered one of those spreads. That means that of the 13 games in which they were underdogs, they covered seven times. Many would say that’s pretty good, but this is a team that made the playoffs, and now that they’re playing against the best of the best, they’re not going to be small underdogs against teams they can compete with. Instead, they’re going to be massive underdogs against teams that should wallop them. Of the 13 games in which they were underdogs, they were only once underdogs by more than one score. In that game, they lost to the Packers 41-25. They are nearing double-digit underdog territory against the Saints this weekend.
Best ATS Win: 36-7 win over the Texans (+1)
Worst Beat: 34-30 loss to the Lions (-3)
10) Seattle Seahawks (ATS Record: 8-8)
The Seahawks began the season 4-0 ATS, but they really cooled off down the stretch and covered in just four of their final 12 games of the season. Seattle’s season is littered with bad beats, whether it be blowing a lead over the Cardinals when favored by 3.5 or defeating Washington by just five when they were dominating the entire game and favored by six. The truth is, Seattle has just been incredibly unreliable ever since Russell Wilson has cooled off, and it is tough to trust them ATS when facing the best teams in the NFL. The Seahawks will be taking on the Rams this weekend, and they went 1-1 SU and ATS against them this season.
Best ATS Win: 40-3 win over the Jets (-16.5)
Worst Beat: 37-34 loss to the Cardinals (-3.5)
9) Washington Football Team (ATS Record: 8-7-1)
As mentioned previously, Washington was favored in just three games all season. They finished just 1-2 ATS in those games, but they won’t need to worry about being favored in a single game this postseason, barring a very significant injury. Washington did play well down the stretch, and it led to them winning and covering in five of their final seven games. That’s very important from a betting standpoint, and it means that Vegas hasn’t quite figured out Washington with Alex Smith under center. While they’re already more than touchdown underdogs to the Bucs in the Wild Card round, it may be worth taking a look at the total in that game. Washington hit 11 unders this season, the second-most of any team in the postseason.
Best ATS Win: 23-17 win over Pittsburgh (+5.5)
Worst Beat: 20-14 win over the Eagles (-6.5)
8) Indianapolis Colts (ATS Record: 8-8)
Surprisingly, the Colts were favored in every single game this season, except one. Because of that, in each of their five losses, they also failed to cover the spread. The Colts were a bit of an enigma to both Vegas and bettors, and their 8-8 ATS record only further exemplifies that. Despite being 11-5 and favored in 15 games, they were only favored by a touchdown or more four times all season. They did not cover a single one of those spreads. They had seven matchups against playoff teams this season and finished with ATS and SU records of 3-4. The Colts will find themselves big underdogs against the Bills on Wild Card Weekend, a spot they have not been in a single time this season.
Best ATS Win: 41-21 win over the Lions (-3.5)
Worst Beat: 28-24 loss to the Steelers (-1)
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ATS Record: 9-7)
The Bucs have covered in five of their last seven games, but when they don’t cover, they really miss the mark. Of the games they’ve lost ATS, they’ve missed the number by a touchdown or more four times. That includes a 38-3 loss to the Saints when they were actually favored by three points. Tom Brady and the offense look like they have found a rhythm, but with Mike Evans day-to-day, Brady may have to rely on Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucs also did a lot of their ATS winning against teams at or below .500. Of their nine wins, seven of them came against teams with .500 or worse records. Luckily for them, their first-round opponent is just 7-9.
Best ATS Win: 38-10 win over the Packers (+3)
Worst Beat: 38-31 win over the Chargers (-7.5)
6) Los Angeles Rams (ATS Record: 9-7)
The Rams were one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this season, and their ATS record only further proves that point. However, they’re ranked above the Buccaneers due to their success ATS in games against teams of a high-caliber. Though LA did lose outright to the Jets as 17.5-point favorites, they won’t be able to play down to competition in the playoffs because all the competition is good. They played six games against playoff teams this season, and they covered the spread in four of those contests. They also covered twice against the Cardinals, the team that was the first left out of the NFC playoffs. Of course, a lot of their success this postseason will depend on their team’s health, but the Rams have been up to the challenge when taking on the best of the best. If you’re looking to play totals, the Rams had 12 of their 16 games go under this season, the most of any team in the postseason.
Best ATS Win: 30-10 win over Washington (-7)
Worst Beat: 35-32 loss to the Bills (+1.5)
5) New Orleans Saints (ATS Record: 9-7)
The Saints only covered in two of their first seven games, but they caught fire in the second half of the season to battle back to 9-7 ATS. They covered in seven of their last nine games, and it seems that Vegas overestimated the Saints with Drew Brees under center, then when he got injured, they underestimated the Saint with Taysom Hill at QB. The fact is, New Orleans tends to cover based on how their defense plays more than their offense. During a five-game ATS win streak around the midpoint of the season, the defense gave up 48 points over the course of those five weeks. That’s less than 10 points per game, an amazing feat for any team in today’s NFL. They’re currently big favorites over the Bears, but they have covered the other two times this season where they were favored by eight or more. New Orleans is one of the few teams this season that really doesn’t have any bad beats.
Best ATS Win: 38-3 win over Buccaneers (+3)
Worst Beat: 26-23 win over the Bears (-5.5)
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (ATS Record: 10-6)
The Steelers finished the season 13-3 and 10-6 ATS, but they don’t feel as reliable as their records indicate. While they got off to a scorching start, they cooled considerably in the second half of the season and covered in just two of their final six games. That means they started 8-2 ATS, so how much you trust them really comes down to the old mantra of “what have you done for me lately?†While their last six games ATS have been a bit sketchy, they did cover in their final two games of the season, including against the Browns in Week 17 without Ben Roethlisberger and various other key players. It was the second time they covered against the Browns this season, and they will look to complete a season sweep of Cleveland this week in the Wild Card round.
Best ATS Win: 36-10 win over the Bengals (-6.5)
Worst Beat: 26-21 win over the Broncos (-6)
3) Green Bay Packers (ATS Record: 10-6)
The Packers started the season 5-1 ATS, then cooled off to just .500 for the rest of the season. A lot of this has to do with the fact that they were favored in 13 of their 16 games. They covered two of the three games where they were underdogs, and the only loss was a 34-31 loss to the Colts, a game that many believe the Packers should have won. It’s also worth noting that while the Packers are just 3-3 ATS when favored by seven or more, they actually could have very easily been 5-1 in such games. Therefore, don’t necessarily be scared of big spreads featuring Green Bay because while trends point to them failing to cover, two of their losses were bad beats against the Panthers and the Lions. They played six games featuring playoff teams, and they covered in four of the six games, including against the Saints.
Best ATS Win: 40-14 win over the Titans (-3)
Worst Beat: 34-31 loss to the Colts (+1.5)
2) Baltimore Ravens (ATS Record: 10-5-1)
Other than the Bills, the Ravens are the hottest team ATS heading into the playoffs. They’ve covered in each of their past six games, breaking them out of a below .500 ATS funk. The expectations for Baltimore heading into the season were simply too high. They were the number one seed in the AFC last season, and they had the MVP of the league returning under center. Because of that, they found themselves favored by astronomical numbers early in the season. Of their first seven games, the Ravens were only favored by less than one touchdown twice, against the Chiefs and the Steelers, the number one and three seeds in the AFC. However, when the lines started to level out, the Ravens started to get hot, and that is likely why they find themselves favored over the Titans heading into Wild Card Weekend. If you’re looking for a low-seed to trust ATS, the Ravens are your team.
Best ATS Win: 38-3 win over the Bengals (-13.5)
Worst Beat: 31-17 win over Washington (-14.5)
1) Buffalo Bills (ATS Record:11-5)
That leaves the Buffalo Bills as the best team ATS in this season’s NFL playoffs. After starting the season just 3-5 ATS, the Bills have rattled off eight straight ATS victories to go along with winning nine of their last 10 games. To find the last time that the Bills didn’t cover, you have to go all the way back to November 1 when they defeated the Patriots 24-21 as four-point favorites. The Bills were exposed when they were blown out by the Titans and struggled mightily against the Chiefs in the early part of the season, but they rebounded fantastically and now look like the Chiefs’ real competition in the AFC. If you like to bet totals, the Bills are a great team to get behind as well. 11 of their 16 games this season went over, the second-most of any team in the playoffs.
Best ATS Win: 56-26 win over the Dolphins at +3.5
Worst Beat: 18-10 win over the Jets at -9.5
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.