NFL Wild Card Weekend Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
The six NFL Wild Card Round matchups are set. The San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills are both favored by double-digits, while the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys are road favorites over uninspiring division winners. Questions surround who will be starting at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens. Once answers are given, expect some serious line movement.
Here is a look at the early Wild Card Weekend lines and where you should expect them to move.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks got in by the skin of their teeth, defeating the Los Angeles Rams in overtime and getting the necessary help from the Detroit Lions on Sunday night. Their reward is traveling to face a division opponent that has outscored them 48-20 this season.
Beating a team three times in one season is no easy task, yet oddsmakers do not expect the 49ers to have any trouble at home against the Seahawks in the opening round of the playoffs. Bettors seem to agree. This line opened with the 49ers favored by 10, and the line has already moved to 10.5. Expect it to keep moving in that direction, especially since the 49ers are co-favorites with the Philadelphia Eagles to get out of the NFC.
Current Line: 49ers -10.5
Predicted Final Line: 49ers -11.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chargers played their starters for most of the season-finale against the Denver Broncos, and the results were disheartening. When they benched Justin Herbert midway through the second half, the Broncos held a 24-20 lead.
Now, the Chargers must go to Jacksonville and take on the red-hot Jaguars. The Jags’ offense did not look good against the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night, but that has not prevented bettors from backing them. The Chargers opened as 2.5-point favorites, and this line has already dropped to 1.5.
While this initial line movement is good for the Jaguars, do not expect them to be favored at kickoff. Instead, expect more money to come in on the Chargers throughout the week, as they rightly remain favorites.
Current Line: Chargers -1.5
Predicted Final Line: Chargers -2.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Will Tua Tagovailoa play? If he does, the Dolphins can not only cover this game but also win. If he doesn’t play, this will get ugly early.
This line is currently set at 10.5, and it looks like Tua’s status is questionable, bordering on doubtful. If he plays, this line will probably drop to 7.5. If he doesn’t, this could go to two touchdowns.
Current Line: Bills -10.5
Predicted Final Line: Bills -13.5
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
When these two teams met in Week 16, the Vikings pulled out the win on a Greg Joseph 61-yard field goal as time expired. It was the Vikings’ 11th one-score win of the season.
Many expect the Vikings to go down on Wild Card Weekend, but the Giants also had a season full of close games. Eight of their nine wins were by eight points or fewer.
The Giants did finish the season an NFL-best 13-4 against the spread, but they’re only getting a field goal in this one. It’s hard to tell which direction bettors will go, as many believe neither of these teams is as good as their record. It wouldn’t be surprising not to see this number move at all.
Current Line: Vikings -3
Predicted Final Line: Vikings -3
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
These two teams met in Week 18, and the Ravens played pretty well despite being without numerous key players and starting Anthony Brown at quarterback. With how hot the Bengals have been playing, it’s interesting to see this line open below the key number of seven. It seems that oddsmakers are trying to bait bettors into taking the Bengals, who seem like an obvious right play.
Lamar Jackson’s status is still unknown for this game, and if he doesn’t play, the Bengals may end up being favored by 8.5. Yet, even if he does play, it’s hard to imagine him being as effective as he normally is, considering he hasn’t played in so long. Therefore, expect this to move past the key number before the game kicks off on Sunday night.
Current Line: Bengals -6.5
Predicted Final Line: Bengals -7.5
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 12-5 Cowboys are road favorites against the 8-9 Buccaneers. This is not unexpected, but it’s getting harder and harder to trust the Cowboys with each passing week. They have not looked like themselves since their 40-3 win at Minnesota.
Sure, they had an explosive fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts. Yet, they were just blown out by the Washington Commanders. They looked bad against Josh Dobbs and the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars beat them, and they almost lost to the Houston Texans. Plus, they barely beat the Eagles with Gardner Minshew under center.
The Buccaneers have had a bad season, but they still managed to win the NFC South and have Tom Brady under center. Five weeks ago, the Cowboys would be a no-brainer pick. But with how they have been playing, this line should actually move in favor of Tampa Bay as Monday night approaches.
Current Line: Cowboys -3
Predicted Final Line: Cowboys -2.5
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