NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
We’ve made it to the playoffs. If you like to bet player props, the bad news is that playoff weeks offer a smaller menu of games. The good news is that the online sportsbooks are usually pretty good about offering a hearty list of player props for each playoff game.
We’ll get to this week’s plays in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of Week 18.
The wins: Josh Dobbs under 204.5 passing yards, Kenny Pickett under 196.5 passing yards, Travis Etienne under 61.5 rushing yards, Derrick Henry over 89.5 rushing yards, Isiah Pacheco over 61.5 rushing yards, Hunter Hurst under 30.5 receiving yards
The losses: Jerick McKinnon over 32.5 receiving yards, Evan Engram over 45.5 receiving yards.
Here are my favorite selections for Wild Card Weekend …
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NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
Last week: 6-2
Season record: 77-52
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
Dak Prescott OVER 1.5 touchdown passes
This number was juiced slightly to the under as of Thursday afternoon, so you could get the over at -110. I’ll take it. Prescott has thrown multiple TD passes in eight of his last 10 games, and in four of those games he had three TD passes. He faces a Buccaneers pass defense that yielded 29 touchdowns passes in the regular season, tied for second-most in the league. When Buccaneers DT Vita Vea is healthy, Tampa Bay is hard to run against, and Vea is healthy. That might incentivize the Cowboys to throw rather than run when they get into the red zone.
Josh Allen OVER 257.7 passing yards
It’s surprising to see the total on Allen’s passing yardage set so low. In two previous starts against the Dolphins, he had 400 and 304 passing yards. For the season, Allen has averaged 267.7 passing yards per game. The Dolphins rank 25th in DVOA against the pass and gave up the fifth-most passing yards during the regular season. Weather is always a concern when the Bills play at home in the weather months, but the forecast is predicting relatively mild weather in Buffalo this Sunday — 31 degrees with sun and a 4-mph wind. The one concern here is that the Bills might be able to take their foot off the gas pedal late in the game since the Dolphins are forced to start third-string rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback. It’s possible, but I still think the over is a good percentage play.
Kenneth Walker UNDER 60.5 rushing yards
Bets on the San Francisco run defense usually pay off. The 49ers have been nearly impregnable vs. the run this season, giving up a league-low 59.6 rushing yards per game to running backs. The only individual player to run for more than 60 yards against the Niners this season was Josh Jacobs, who ran for 69 yards against them in Week 17. Walker has averaged 26 carries over Seattle’s last three games, but it seems unlikely he’ll get anywhere near that many rushing attempts this week if the Seahawks aren’t having any success on the ground. When the 49ers beat the Seahawks 21-13 in Week 15, Walker had 12 carries for 47 yards.
Travis Etienne OVER 75.5 rushing yards
This is the highest rushing total on the board for Wild Card weekend, and I still like the over. Etienne had seven carries for only 17 yards against Tennessee last week, but the Titans have a fierce run defense. The Chargers, whom Etienne faces this weekend, do not. The Chargers gave up a league-high 5.6 yards per carry to running backs this season while also allowing opposing RBs to run for 127.3 yards per game, second-most behind only the Texans. Before the Jaguars abandoned the run against the Titans last week, Etienne had cleared this number in three straight games, averaging 98 rushing yards per game over that stretch. I think he smashes this number in a home game against a terrible run defense.
George Kittle OVER 44.5 receiving yards
Kittle gets another crack at a Seahawks defense he blowtorched for 93 yards and two touchdowns less than a month ago. Seattle has been helpless against tight ends all season, giving up 1115 receiving yards to opposing TEs, second-most in the league. Kittle has seen at least five targets in each of his last five games, and he’s averaging an impressive 9.2 yards per target over that stretch. Even with Deebo Samuel back to claim some of the targets from QB Brock Purdy, I still like Kittle’s chances to surpass this number.
Austin Ekeler OVER 35.5 receiving yards
Ekeler has been heavily involved in the passing game all year, with 107 catches for 722 yards. The Chargers might have to lean on Ekeler more than usual this weekend if WR Mike Williams, who sustained a back injury in Week 18, is unable to play or is limited. (Williams wasn’t practicing as of Thursday.) Ekeler faces a Jaguars defense that’s easier to run on than to throw on, and Jacksonville has been especially susceptible to pass-catching running backs. The Jags have given up 815 receiving yards to RBs, second-most behind only the Raiders. When Ekeler faced the Jaguars in Week 3, he had eight catches for 48 yards.
Hayden Hurst UNDER 31.5 receiving yards
One of my recommended props last week was Hurst under 30.5 receiving yards against the Ravens. He finished with four catches for 14 yards. I’m going back to the well. Hurst has played eight games this season in which Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both been active, and he had fewer than 30 receiving yards in six of those eight games. The Ravens gave up the seventh-fewest receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season.
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