NFL Win Totals: BettingPros Staff Early Picks (2022)
The NFL is a year-round business. While we don’t get to watch actual NFL games until the 2022 season kicks off in September, the off-field action never stops. Baseball hasn’t even completed its spring training yet, but we already have early lines for NFL Win Totals thanks to our friends at Caesars Sportsbook.
Our very own Matthew Freedman, Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown, and Joe Pisapia took an early look at the lines and made their picks based on what we currently know about each team.
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AFC East
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over (4-1) |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.5 | Over | Under | Over | Under | Under | Under (3-2) |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over (Unanimous) |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over (4-1) |
Buffalo Bills – Over 11.5 Wins
The Bills are the most complete team in the AFC and should approach 13 wins this season. – JP
Miami Dolphins – Under 8.5 Wins
Rookie head coaches since 2008 have combined for an average of 7 wins. Even with the extra game in 2021, rookie HCs averaged fewer than 5.5 wins – AE
New England Patriots – Over 8.5 Wins
What, you think a Bill Belichick team is going to finish below .500? – PF
New York Jets – Over 5.5 Wins
With the underrated additions of left guard Laken Tomlinson and corner D.J. Reed plus four picks in the top 40 selections of the NFL Draft, it’s not hard to see Robert Saleh guiding this team to a two-win improvement (at least). – DBro
AFC North
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over (Unanimous) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over (Unanimous) |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over (3-2) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under (4-1) |
Baltimore Ravens – Over 9.5 Wins
This feels like an easy over for a team that averaged 11.6 wins in their previous three seasons and was ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball last year. – DBro
Cincinnati Bengals – Over 9.5 Wins
Their arrival was ahead of schedule last season, and now they’ve taken steps to rebuild a problematic offensive line. – PF
Cleveland Browns – Over 9.5 Wins
The Browns are the trickiest of all early numbers. If Deshaun Watson is suspended for a lengthy period, an under is very possible. – JP
Pittsburgh Steelers – Under 7.5 Wins
AFC North has the second-highest projected win total and Pittsburgh ranked 23rd in average scoring margin in 2021. – AE
AFC South
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under (4-1) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over (Unanimous) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 | Over | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under (3-2) |
| Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under (4-1) |
Houston Texans – Under 4.5 Wins
Texans have won four games in each of the past two seasons and don’t have a proven coach. – MF
Indianapolis Colts – Over 9.5 Wins
They won nine games last season with Carson Wentz imploding towards the end of year. Matt Ryan at QB is worth another W. – AE
Jacksonville Jaguars – Under 6.5 Wins
You can be excited that the Jags are going in a better direction, but that doesn’t make them a good football team. – JP
Tennessee Titans – Under 9.5 Wins
Jaguars, Colts, and Texans could all be better at quarterback this year than they were last year. – MF
AFC West
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under (4-1) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over (3-2) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over (4-1) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over (4-1) |
Denver Broncos – Under 10 Wins
Despite the addition of Russell Wilson to a solid roster, this feels rich considering the upgrades that their division foes have also made this offseason. -DBro
Kansas City Chiefs – Over 10.5 Wins
They’ve won 12 or more games in each of the last four seasons and are still the class of an improved division. – PF
Las Vegas Raiders – Over 8.5 Wins
Raiders have upgraded significantly at coach, wide receiver, and pass rusher. – MF
Los Angeles Chargers – Over 10 Wins
Chargers are one offensive lineman, one decent linebacker, and one third-year quarterback leap from a Super Bowl. – MF
NFC East
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under (4-1) |
| New York Giants | 7 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under (Unanimous) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | Over | Under | Over | Over | Under | Over (3-2) |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | Over | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under (3-2) |
Dallas Cowboys – Under 10.5 Wins
Eagles have three first-rounders, Giants have two first-rounders and a better coach, Commanders have a better quarterback—and Cowboys still have Mike McCarthy. – MF
New York Giants – Under 7 Wins
The Giants have too many flaws and Saquon Barkley’s health concerns make an over a tough sell. – JP
Philadelphia Eagles – Over 9 Wins
With three first-round picks in hand and Jalen Hurts entering his second year as the Eagles’ starter, it’s a good bet that they can improve on last year’s win total (nine) in a weak division. – DBro
Washington Commanders – Under 7.5 Wins
Here’s betting that Carson Wentz isn’t the solution to Washington’s ongoing QB problem. – PF
NFC North
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under (4-1) |
| Detroit Lions | 6 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over (3-2) |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under (4-1) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over | Under (3-2) |
Chicago Bears – Under 6.5 Wins
New regime can only be an improvement, but this roster is full of holes. – PF
Detroit Lions – Over 6 Wins
The fighting Dan Campbells went 3-3 over their first six games, so doubling their anemic win total of 2021 is possible. – DBro
Green Bay Packers – Under 11 Wins
The Packers will likely win double-digit games, but removing Dvanate Adams from this offense is a significant loss for Aaron Rodgers. – JP
Minnesota Vikings – Under 9 Wins
Kirk Cousins’s seemingly eternal contract is the weight that pulls the Vikings down. – MF
NFC South
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under (Unanimous) |
| Carolina Panthers | 6 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under (4-1) |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under (3-2) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over (4-1) |
Atlanta Falcons – Under 5.5 Wins
Don’t ever bet the over on a team that is full-on tanking. – AE
Carolina Panthers – Under 6 Wins
The Panthers can add a quarterback in the draft and still hit the under here with a team led by a walking dead head coach in Matt Rhule. – DBro
New Orleans Saints – Under 7.5 Wins
The leadership void left by Sean Payton will rear its head in 2022 for the Saints. – JP
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over 11.5 Wins
Tom Brady didn’t un-retire for fewer than 11 wins, a number he has hit in 14 of his 21 NFL seasons (67%). – AE
NFC West
| TEAM / DIVISION | OVER / UNDER | Matt | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over (3-2) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over (4-1) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over (4-1) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under (4-1) |
Arizona Cardinals – Over 9 Wins
They stumbled down the stretch last season after starting 10-2, but the nucleus is a good one. – PF
Los Angeles Rams – Over 10.5 Wins
Only team in the NFC West with zero question marks about their quarterback and offensive structure.- AE
San Francisco 49ers – Over 10 Wins
A healthier version of Jimmy Garoppolo or an upgrade via Trey Lance could vault this team (ten wins in 2021) into the 11-13 win echelon. – DBro
Seattle Seahawks – Under 6 Wins
Whoever the Seahawks ultimately settle on at quarterback, he won’t be Russell Wilson, but he will be playing in the hardest division in football. – MF
Early Best Bets for Super Bowl 57 >>
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