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Top 3 NHL Best Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/12)

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We have a loaded 12-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.

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All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Today’s Best NHL Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions

 

Colorado Avalanche (-315) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+260) | O/U 6 (-115/-105)

There is a Central Division clash with the last-place Chicago Blackhawks hosting the sixth-place Colorado Avalanche. Despite the juice, the Avs are the team to back in this contest as the Hawks continue to blatantly tank for Connor Bedard.

Chicago enters this contest in terrible form, losing 20 of its last 24 games. Of those 20 losses, 18 have come by at least a two-goal margin.

Colorado boasts the advantage in every category one could think of in this contest. At 5-on-5, they rank higher in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and they boast the better goaltender as Alexandar Georgiev is set to guard the cage for the Avs.

While it is relatively easy to patrol the crease behind Colorado’s elite defense, Georgiev has performed his role incredibly. Through 30 starts, he is 16-11-3 with a .914 save percentage (SV%) and 2.71 goals against average (GAA).

Among starting goaltenders, Georgiev ranks 12th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Across the ice, goaltender Petr Mrazek is projected to start for Chicago.

Through 14 starts, Mrazek is 2-10-1 with a .878 SV% and 4.19 GAA. If he qualified, Mrazek would rank second-to-last among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

Chicago has already given up on the season, evidenced by the lack of effort the players are showing on the ice over the past couple of weeks. Facing the defending champions will probably not be a spot where that remedies itself, even considering the Hawks’ modest two-game win streak.

Best Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (-125)

 

Toronto Maple Leafs (-140) @ Detroit Red Wings (+120) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)

On ESPN, there is an Atlantic Division tilt with the sixth-place Detroit Red Wings hosting the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs. There are a couple of reasons why this line is so short for the Leafs.

First, superstar Auston Matthews missed last night’s game with an undisclosed injury. However, he took part in Wednesday’s morning skate. His absence in that game could be more precautionary than anything else, especially considering it was the first half of a back-to-back before facing a division opponent.

Secondly, oddsmakers may be factoring in fatigue for Toronto. That said, they are still the side to play at this price.

At 5-on-5, the Leafs rank in the top 10 of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60. Meanwhile, the Wings rank in the bottom 10 of the league in both key metrics.

While goaltender Ville Husso will likely keep Detroit in this game, Ilya Samsonov should out-duel him Husso if the game comes down to a goalie battle. Samsonov boasts a better SV%, GAA this season and ranks higher in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

With the better offense, defense, and goaltender, the juice is worth the squeeze on Toronto.

Best Bet: Maple Leafs ML (-140)

 

Seattle Kraken (+200) @ Boston Bruins (-240) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)

The Pacific Division’s Seattle Kraken takes on the Atlantic Division’s Boston Bruins in this cross-country battle. Both teams enter this contest in excellent form, although goals may be challenging to come by.

Goaltender Linus Ullmark, the front-runner in the Vezina Trophy race at the halfway mark of the season, is slated to take the crease for Boston. Through 26 appearances, Ullmark is a ridiculous 22-1-1 with a .938 SV% and 1.87 GAA.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks second in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. In front of Ullmark is one of the strongest blue lines in the league, as the Bruins rank third in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

The total is set so high because of Seattle’s offensive production and the poor stats of goaltender Martin Jones, who is projected to start between the pipes for the Kraken. However, Seattle is due for regression offensively as they, at 5-on-5, rank first in the league in GF/60 but just 18th in xGF/60.

Meanwhile, Jones is starting to turn his season around. Over his last five starts, Jones is 5-0 with a stellar .934 SV% and 1.60 GAA.

Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-120)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.