NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/17)
We have a solid five-game slate of hockey on Friday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my two best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.
And let’s take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:
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Friday’s Best NHL Bets
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Dallas Stars (-110) @ Minnesota Wild (-106) | O/U 6 (+114/-136)
There is a Central Division tilt, with the fourth-place Minnesota Wild hosting the first-place Dallas Stars. Low-scoring games are typically in store when these two clubs meet, with six or fewer total goals scored in three of the last four meetings.
This trend is likely to continue with goaltender Jake Oettinger slated to take the crease for Dallas. A potential Vezina Trophy candidate, Oettinger has put together a tremendous campaign.
Through 41 appearances in the crease, he is 23-7-8 with a .925 save percentage (SV%) and 2.23 goals against average (GAA). Based on his underlying metrics, regression should not be an issue for the Stars’ netminder.
Among starting goaltenders, Oettinger ranks seventh in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. In front of Oettinger is a tremendous two-way team that ranks 11th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
While Dallas boasts an impressive blue line, Minnesota’s defense is even stronger. At 5-on-5, the Wild rank second in the league in xGA/60.
Backing up this elite blue line is goaltender Filip Gustavsson, who has been tremendous in the crease this season. Through 23 appearances between the pipes, Gustavsson is 12-8-2 with a .926 SV% and 2.18 GAA.
Like Oettinger, Gustavsson’s underlying metrics are just as impressive. If he qualified, he would rank 10th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
Both offenses should struggle against these defenses and goaltenders, with each team ranking in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
Best Bet: Under 6 (-136 via BetRivers)
New York Rangers (-105) @ Edmonton Oilers (-115) | O/U 6.5 (-135/+115)
Later in the evening, the Pacific Division’s Edmonton Oilers host the Metropolitan Division’s New York Rangers. New York enters this contest in tremendous form, winning each of its last six games.
However, now is the time to sell on the Rangers, particularly on their offense that is out-kicking its coverage. They have scored four or more goals in all six of those outings but rank just 22nd in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
On the flip side, Edmonton’s offense is due for positive regression. At 5-on-5, the Oilers rank eighth in the league in GF/60 but third in xGF/60.
New York boasts a very slight advantage both defensively and in net, although it is by a much slimmer margin than the offensive difference in this contest. While Igor Shesterkin is one of the world’s best goaltenders and the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner has nearly identical surface-level stats and underlying metrics.
In fact, Skinner ranks higher than Shesterkin in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. Throw in home-ice advantage, and we should expect the Oilers to snap the Rangers’ six-game win streak.
Best Bet: Oilers ML (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.