Navigate

NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (2/10)

by |

Despite the small four-game slate of hockey on Friday, there are still some great matchups to take advantage of across the board. Below, I give out my two best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.

And here are our other top picks for Friday:

Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>

Today’s Best NHL Bets

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-230) @ Columbus Blue Jackets (+195) | O/U 6.5 (-120/+102)

There is an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s Columbus Blue Jackets hosting the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs. In perhaps the squarest play on Friday’s slate, we are going to back the road team to not only win but to also cover the puck line.

Simply put, Toronto is better than Columbus in every single category across the board. At 5-on-5, the Leafs rank sixth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and eighth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

Meanwhile, at 5-on-5, the Jackets rank just 28th in the league in xGF/60 and 26th in xGA/60. Additionally, Toronto boasts the goaltending advantage in this matchup as Ilya Samsonov is slated to take the crease.

Through 25 appearances between the pipes this season, Samsonov is 17-6-2 with a .913 save percentage (SV%) and 2.42 goals against average (GAA). Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue as Samsonov ranks sixth among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Joonas Korpisalo is slated to get the nod for Columbus. While Korpisalo has actually played relatively well in net considering the terrible defense in front of him, he still ranks below Samsonov in every surface-level stat and underlying metric across the board.

In this contest, Toronto boasts the better offense, defense, and goaltender, even without superstar forward Auston Matthews in the lineup. Six of the Leafs’ last nine wins have come by at least a two-goal margin while six of the Jackets’ last nine losses have come by at least a two-goal margin.

Best Bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+105 via BetRivers)

Arizona Coyotes (-110) @ Chicago Blackhawks (-110) | O/U 6 (-108/-109)

We are going to back another road team on Friday in this Central Division tilt with the eighth-place Chicago Blackhawks hosting the seventh-place Arizona Coyotes. For those who watch these games after tailing these picks, I deeply apologize in advance because this will be one of the worst games you will watch all season.

Both of these squads are utterly terrible as both organizations are tanking for the chance to land generational prospect Connor Bedard. While both teams are terrible, Arizona is slightly better at basically everything.

At 5-on-5, the Yotes rank 30th in the league in xGF/60 and 28th in xGA/60. Surely the Hawks couldn’t be worse than that, right?

At 5-on-5, Chicago ranks 32nd in the league in xGF/60 and 30th in xGA/60. To make matters worse for the Hawks, the biggest disadvantage they face in this contest is in net as the projected goaltending matchup is Petr Mrazek versus Karel Vejmelka.

This season, Vejmelka boasts a better win percentage, GAA, SV%, and GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. While Arizona’s product of hockey is not good, they still are better than Chicago in every category against the board.

Best Bet: Coyotes ML (-110 via BetRivers)

Best of luck!

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes â€” or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor â€” to learn more.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.