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NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/9)

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We have a stacked 11-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my two best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.

Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:

Thursday’s Best NHL Bets

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook

Dallas Stars (-143) @ Buffalo Sabres (+118) | O/U 6.5 (-113/-108)

To kick off Thursday’s slate, the Atlantic Division’s Buffalo Sabres host the Central Division’s Dallas Stars. Simply put, Dallas is better than Buffalo in almost every aspect of this game.

At 5-on-5, the Stars rank higher than the Sabres in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Although, perhaps the biggest mismatch in this contest is in net as goaltender Jake Oettinger is slated to get the start for Dallas.

Through 48 appearances in the crease this season, Oettinger is 26-9-10 with a .921 save percentage (SV%) and 2.36 goals against average (GAA). His underlying metrics are just as phenomenal, ranking 10th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

Across the ice, goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is slated to start between the pipes for Buffalo. While the young netminder puts together some promising performances, his game is still raw and he has to deal with the terrible blue line in front of him.

Through 27 starts this season, Luukkonen possesses a .893 SV5 and 3.61 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 28th in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. With the more efficient offense, defense, and goaltender, back Dallas to take care of business on the road in this matchup.

Best Bet: Stars ML (-143)

Edmonton Oilers (+150) @ Boston Bruins (-182) | O/U 6.5 (-114/-107)

Later in the evening, the Atlantic Division’s Boston Bruins host the Pacific Division’s Edmonton Oilers. While the mighty Bruins are rightfully favored in this matchup considering they are the best team in hockey, the price is a bit steeper than it should be.

The Oilers have been playing some great hockey lately, which is a product of the efforts of perhaps the most dominant athlete in North American sports, Connor McDavid. The guy has gone absolutely nuclear over his last eight games, potting 12 goals while adding 10 assists over that stretch.

At 5-on-5, Edmonton now ranks third in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5, which is nine spots higher than Boston. While the Bruins are obviously stronger defensively, they rank just nine spots higher than the Oilers in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

Boston also boasts the edge in net in this contest, with Vezina Trophy favorite Linus Ullmark slated to go against rookie netminder Stuart Skinner. However, the disparity in play this season is not as drastic as one would think.

Among starting goaltenders, Ullmark ranks first in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5 while Skinner ranks just two spots behind. Edmonton should be able to hang around with the Bruins in this contest, at least much more so than this price would indicate.

Best Bet: Oilers +1.5 (-152)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.