NHL Futures: Best Bet to Win the Stanley Cup (2020)
The NHL is set to return with a rather interesting format. The top four teams in each conference will play a round-robin schedule to determine playoff seeding while the remaining 16 teams compete in a best-of-five series, the eight series winners qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The drastic difference between these two scheduling formats has created a clear divide in the futures market. Just one team playing in the qualifying round has odds shorter than (+2300) to win the Stanley Cup, the Pittsburgh Penguins at (+1500), while the eight round-robin teams are currently listed as the eight heaviest favorites to win it all.
What’s the implied advantage of avoiding the qualifying round? Rest and a less grueling schedule.
The round-robin format guarantees a short, three-game schedule, avoids games on consecutive days, and uses five-minute, regular-season overtime rules. The qualifying round is much more daunting. It carries the possibility of playing up to five games in a series, includes the potential of a back-to-back at some point between games two and five, and follows continuous playoff overtime rules.
Recent history also shows that avoiding long shots and wagering on the heavier favorites has been the most fruitful approach. The last 10 Stanley Cup Champions have entered the playoffs with average odds of (+994) to win the title, and just one had odds of (+1500) or greater, the 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings (+2200).
With a lighter schedule and history on my side, I’m taking the Vegas Golden Knights at (+850) to hoist the 2020 Stanley Cup, odds you can get at FanDuel Sportsbook. Here’s why:
View our Consensus Odds to Win the Stanley Cup >>
Scoring Depth
Vegas is the most complete, well-rounded team in the NHL, especially offensively, and offensive firepower should dictate success at a greater rate than defensive stability in this return-to-play tournament. The Golden Knights ranked first in the NHL in CF% (54.76), xGF% (56.07) and SCF% (56.09), second in SF% (54.42) and HDCF% (55.72), and had a top-10 powerplay unit, converting on 22.0% of their man-advantages. They’re also one of just five teams to boast six different 45-point scorers, led by Max Pacioretty (66 points) and Mark Stone (63), and they’ll welcome back right winger Alex Tuch from injury, a 20-goal scorer last year.
Some tough puck luck led to them finishing just 10th in the league in goals, but based on such dominant offensive metrics, expect plenty more bounces to go the Knights’ way once they get back on the ice.
Goaltending Tandem
Vegas goaltenders finished just 20th in team save percentage (.900) and 19th in goals-against average (2.94), while starting net-minder Marc-Andre Fleury posted the third-lowest save percentage of his career, his lowest since 2005-06.
The team addressed those issues at the trade deadline, however, and turned a glaring weakness into a true strength. They struck a deal for Robin Lehner, a Vezina Trophy finalist in 2018-19, and in his first three games with the team, Lehner posted a .940 save percentage, a 1.67 goals-against average, and perhaps most importantly, a 3-0-0 record.
It still remains to be seen who head coach Peter DeBoer will name as the starter in net, but he now has the added luxury of choosing between a three-time Stanley Cup Champion in Fleury, and a Vezina-finalist who owns the league’s 4th-best save percentage over the last two seasons (.925) in Lehner. With the unfortunate potential of COVID-19, it’ll be just as important to have two reliable goaltenders this year as it will be to have one red-hot net-minder.
Both Fleury and Lehner have experience succeeding in a tandem-role as well, which could help keep both goalies fresh and well-rested. Lehner has started over half of his team’s games just three times in his 10-year career, and actually split time with Thomas Greiss during last year’s aforementioned Vezina-finalist campaign, while Fleury won the 2016-17 Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh sharing time with Matt Murray.
Experience
Am I about to argue a franchise that hasn’t even completed its third year in the NHL has the most valuable level of experience of the 24 remaining teams? You bet.
Nearly half of the current Golden Knights roster (48.4%) was a member of the 2017-18 team that marched all the way to the Stanley Cup Final as an expansion franchise. The leaders of this team are not only used to adversity and unusual circumstances, they thrive in them. And so does their head coach.
Peter DeBoer has not only taken two different franchises to the Stanley Cup Final (2011-12 New Jersey Devils and 2015-16 San Jose Sharks), but both appearances came in his first season at the helm. Coincidentally, this is his first season behind the bench in Vegas, and this Golden Knights team is quite possibly the most talented roster he’s ever had. It appears as if DeBoer finally has all the pieces in place to get over the hump and capture the Stanley Cup.
Pick to win the 2020 Stanley Cup: Vegas Golden Knights at (+850) via FanDuel Sportsbook
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget — to learn more.