NHL Futures: Best Bet to Win the Stanley Cup (2020)
The most overlooked of the four major North American sports, hockey takes on another form when the playoffs begin. With every team being a lucky shot or two from winning or losing any given contest, NHL Stanley Cup future odds come in higher than that of their NBA counterparts. As it currently stands, there are about five teams that have been given a realistic chance to take the Cup home. However, there may be a few more teams in play. Let’s take a look at the odds and the hopefuls.
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Stanley Cup Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Boston Bruins (+600)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (+600)
- Colorado Avalanche (+800)
- Philadelphia Flyers (+850)
- Vegas Golden Knights (+850)
- Washington Capitals (+1000)
- St. Louis Blues (+1100)
- Dallas Stars (+1500)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (+1800)
- Edmonton Oilers (+2500)
- Toronto Maple Leafs (+2700)
- Calgary Flames (+3500)
- Vancouver Canucks (+3500)
- New York Islanders (+4000)
- New York Rangers (+4000)
- Carolina Hurricanes (+4200)
- Nashville Predators (+4200)
- Arizona Coyotes (+4500)
- Minnesota Wild (+4500)
- Winnipeg Jets (+5500)
- Florida Panthers (+6000)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (+6500)
- Chicago Blackhawks (+8000)
- Montreal Canadiens (+8000)
The True Hopefuls
Boston Bruins (+600)
As the odds for the Stanley Cup Winner future at FanDuel indicate, the Boston Bruins the Stanley Cup Champion is expected to come from the Eastern Conference. The Bruins are listed at +600 and have a very good case suggesting that they should have been the lone favorite. The best team in the NHL prior to the suspension of the season, Boston led the NHL with 100 points, which was more than six points ahead of the next closest team. There is an argument to be made that they are the best all-around team in the entire NHL playoffs, thanks in large part to the elite goaltending play of Tuukka Rask.
At just 2.26 goals allowed per game, the Bruins top the NHL in that category. Rask has a stellar 2.16 goals-against average, a mark that when combined with his 26 wins and five shutouts in 41 games, should lead to the second Vezina Award of his career. The Bruins are also one of the best offensive teams in the league and sit tied for eighth place in the league with a strong 3.2 goals per game. David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand lead the way for Boston, but they are a full two lines deep with exciting talent. Also elite on special teams, Boston has the number two powerplay in the league behind Edmonton and also has the number three penalty kill units. Listed as the lone favorite at William Hill Sportsbook, Boston indeed appears to have the highest probability to go all the way.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+600)
The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup for good reason. Third in overall points, with the second-most wins prior to the suspension of the season, Tampa Bay was easily one of the best teams in the league in both talent and form. Steve Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov lead the way on offense, powering the Lightning to a league-leading 3.5 goals per game. Their 2.64 goals allowed per game is a rock-solid average that placed them seventh in the NHL. Their goaltending combined with their second to none offense will make them one of the toughest teams to beat in the 2020 NHL Playoffs. If Vezina voters choose to count wins over goals-against average, save percentage, and shutouts, Andrei Vasilevskly may have a shot at the trophy. The Lightning were also one of the league’s best on the powerplay with their unit ranking fifth in the league with a 23.2 percent conversion rate. If Boston did not exist, Tampa Bay would be the runaway favorite to win the Cup. As the odds here suggest, it would be a surprise if we did not see a Tampa Bay-Boston Eastern Conference Finals.
Colorado Avalanche (+800)
Based on odds, talent, and form, the Colorado Avalanche have the highest probability to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. While they actually sat in second place in the West prior to the suspension of the season, there is no denying that they are a stronger overall team than the St. Louis Blues. Colorado ranked second in the NHL with 3.4 goals per contest, thanks in large part to the heroics of Nathan MacKinnon. He is not going to be able to do it alone in the playoffs, which is one of the reasons the Av’s are listed at +800 vis a vis the top two teams on this list. Pavel Francouz has been excellent when in net for Colorado and could prove to be a difference-maker. The Avalanche as a whole have allowed just 2.54 goals per game, but Francouz is at a much better 2.41. Colorado was excellent on the road this season, something that should play a factor with the entirety of the NHL Playoffs set to take place in hub cities.
Philadelphia Flyers (+850)
Philadelphia was a dominant home team that actually had a losing record on the road. With the entire NHL Playoffs set to take place in hub cities, their struggles away from home make them the team most likely to be upset once the play-in round concludes. The Flyers are balanced enough (3.3 goals per game vs. 2.65 goals allowed per game) to find success in the playoffs, but their road woes are too much of a red flag to take them seriously as contenders.
Vegas Golden Knights (+850)
Second in odds to come out of the Western Conference despite sitting in third place, the Vegas Golden Knights have the talent to make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. They were strong on offense prior to the suspension, scoring 3.2 goals per game, good enough to tie them for eighth in the league. Their 2.90 goals allowed per game is what makes them a dicey play to win the Stanley Cup, but they do have a strong chance to win the West. They will need Marc Andre-Fleury to get hot in order to do so, but as a decorated playoff veteran, he should be able to turn the switch on. Their struggles on the road suggest they may have some problems playing entire series’ in hub cities, making them tough to entertain outside of a multi-team strategy.
Washington Capitals (+1000)
Due to the presence of one of the great goal scorers of all time in Alexander Ovechkin, the Washington Capitals are always an intriguing playoff team. They have been elite as expected on offense, with their 3.4 goals per game, tying them for second in the NHL. The Capitals have a strong top defensive pairing led by defenceman John Carlson and should be able to ride their top line to some playoff success. However, the Capitals are going to live and die by their goaltending. They allowed 2.93 goals per game, a mark that ranks as the 12th worst in the league. Washington is one of the few teams that have been better on the road than at home this season, something that may work in their favor with the entire playoffs to be played in hub cities. The Capitals need to at least be considered.
St. Louis Blues (+1100)
While the St. Louis Blues are not one of the strongest offensive teams in the playoffs, their goaltending has been elite this season. They boast the number three powerplay units, a facet of their game that could lend itself to playoff success. Their netminding duo of Jake Allen and Jordan Binnington has allowed just 2.45 goals per game on the season, good for third-best in the NHL. Lacking any true powerhouses on the offensive end, the Blues will need to rely on their strength in net in order to realize their playoff aspirations. With that being said, even if they manage to make it out of the West, they will have an extremely tough time if the Boston Bruins or the Tampa Bay Lightning make it out of the Eastern Conference. While it is true that any team can get hot and win it all in the NHL, the Blues simply may not have the offensive pieces to do so.
The Hosts
Toronto Maple Leafs (+2700)
Despite one of the most talented offensive teams in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs barely merit mention here. As evidenced by being tied for second in the league with 3.4 goals per contest, they are elite at putting the puck in the net, but their defensive play and netminding have still proven to be their Achilles heel. 3.04 goals allowed per game (fifth-worst in the NHL) simply is not going to cut it when there are only strong teams left in the playoffs. With that being said, if they can get hot on home ice and continue to excel with the man advantage, they may be able to exploit the unique opportunity Toronto being one of the leaked hub cities will provide.
Edmonton Oilers (+2500)
Home to arguably the best line in hockey, the Edmonton Oilers were always intriguing, but now look even more appealing with Edmonton being leaked as one of the hub cities. They will need Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to be at the top of their games in order to outscore opponents because their goaltending has not been great this season. While their goals allowed per game is nowhere near as bad as Toronto’s mark, that type of goals-against average does not usually denote a potential Stanley Cup Champion. They have been elite on special teams this season, and boast the number one powerplay unit and the number two penalty kill units. If there is any Western Conference team worth a flier, the Oilers just may be it.
The Rest
- Dallas Stars (+1500)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (+1800)
- Calgary Flames (+3500)
- Vancouver Canucks (+3500)
- New York Islanders (+4000)
- New York Rangers (+4000)
- Carolina Hurricanes (+4200)
- Nashville Predators (+4200)
- Arizona Coyotes (+4500)
- Minnesota Wild (+4500)
- Winnipeg Jets (+5500)
- Florida Panthers (+6000)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (+6500)
- Chicago Blackhawks (+8000)
- Montreal Canadiens (+8000)
While there are a few teams above that are expected to have a chance to make it to the Conference semifinals, none of them are to be taken seriously as contenders for betting purposes. Of course, we all know that in the NHL, perhaps more so than in any other sport, we can see a team get hot and go on to win it all. That could be the case with one of the above teams, but they remain long shot fliers at best. They can be included in multi-team strategies, but not deserve a full unit of action unless you are specifically hunting for underdog plays. Nashville, Winnipeg, Chicago, and Montreal join Pittsburgh as the most likely to pull a semi-final round upset, but the fact remains that there is a minimal chance at best that any of these teams make it to the Conference Finals, nevermind the Stanley Cup Finals itself.
Final Thoughts
With the odds for the top teams all sitting at +600 or higher, the obvious play here is to employ a multi-team strategy. Boston, Tampa Bay, and Colorado are the obvious candidates, but there is still room to add another team or two if one feels so inclined. For those looking for a single unit play, Boston and Tampa Bay make the most sense. Colorado has its appeal due to being the team with the highest probability of making the Stanley Cup Finals, but winning a series against Boston or Tampa Bay will be a difficult task at best. Boston and Tampa Bay are the most complete teams in the playoffs, and if either team makes the Finals, they will assuredly be the favorite. Boston has the advantage in net with Tuukka Rask, but the Lightning enjoy a slight advantage in offensive potency. Goaltending is usually a, if not the deciding factor in the playoffs, and as such the slight lean here is towards the Boston Bruins.
Pick: Boston Bruins (+600) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.