NHL Futures: Best Bet to Win the Western Conference (2020)
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With the hub cities announced and the calendar turned to July, it is time to look at the NHL futures odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Eastern Conference seems more cut and dry, with two teams standing head and shoulders above the rest. While the weaker of the two conferences, the Western Conference has more parity. Colorado, Vegas, St. Louis, and Dallas will receive byes for the Stanley Cup Qualifiers.
Let’s take a look at the teams and their respective odds to identify the best value on the board.
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Western Conference Odds
- Colorado Avalanche (+325)
- Vegas Golden Knights (+350)
- St. Louis Blues (+450)
- Dallas Stars (+650)
- Edmonton Oilers (+1000)
- Calgary Flames (+1600)
- Vancouver Canucks (+1700)
- Minnesota Wild (+1800)
- Nashville Predators (+1900)
- Arizona Coyotes (+2000)
- Winnipeg Jets (+2500)
- Chicago Blackhawks (+3500)
The Hopefuls
Colorado Avalanche (+325)
Unlike in the Eastern Conference, where the top two teams were posted with identical odds, the Colorado Avalanche are the lone favorite in the West. One of the most offensively potent teams in the league, the Avs have scored 3.4 goals per game (second in the NHL) versus just 2.5 goals allowed per contest.
Second in the West based on overall points, the Avalanche sit atop the odds board due to their style and skill lending itself well to playoff hockey. Colorado will need Nathan MacKinnon and Pavel Francouz to be at the top of their games to come out of a much more competitive Western Conference. Based on team profile (they are excellent on the road) and the odds of the top three teams, the Avs just may be the best value on the board.
Vegas Golden Knights (+350)
Sitting in third place in the Western Conference before the season’s suspension, the Vegas Golden Knights appear to have a good playoff push in them. They have the talent to come out of the West, but it will be a tough road.
Although tied for eighth in the league with a strong 3.2 goals per game, their goaltending — which has allowed 2.9 goals per game — may get the best of them in the grind that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Marc Andre-Fleury has gotten hot in the playoffs before, so the Golden Knights will hope he does so again this postseason.
They probably do not warrant the second-highest odds to come out of the West, something that may work against them as we attempt to identify the best values. They have the balance to make a run, but between goaltending, odds, and the lack of a winning road record, the Golden Knights should not be your lone play.
St. Louis Blues (+450)
Third in odds despite leading the Western Conference, the St. Louis Blues get no respect. Their goaltending with Jake Allen and Jordan Binnington in the net is among the league’s best. They have allowed just 2.45 goals per game (third-best in the NHL). Their 3.1 goals per game are decidedly middle of the pack (tied for 14th), so the Blues will rely on their stellar goaltending to carry them through the playoffs.
The Avalanche may be a tough beat, but they should be able to get past most other teams, aside from maybe Edmonton. At +450, there could be some value in the Blues as a solo play or in a multi-team strategy.
Dallas Stars (+650)
The Dallas Stars have just 82 points on the season, but that makes them a relatively competitive fifth-place team in the West. They are among the league’s worst in goals scored per game at 2.6 (tied for third-lowest) but have been able to ride goaltenders Anton Khudobin and Ben Bishop to a moderate level of success. Their 2.3 goals allowed per game places them second in the entire NHL.
Still, it is fair to question whether Dallas will be able to score enough against the other top teams in the West for its top-level goaltending to become a factor. The odds just do not seem to match up with the team’s profile.
Edmonton Oilers (+1000)
The Edmonton Oilers are arguably the most exciting team in the West. Add to that home ice as a hub city, and we may have the makings of an intriguing dark horse.
Their 2.86 goals allowed per game is not great. Actually, it is bad. But it’s still better than teams like Vegas, and their 3.1 goals per game puts them on par with St. Louis. Why they sit at +1000 is fair to wonder, but instead of worrying about that, it is better to lock in a potential value before the odds change.
Blessed with the two top point scorers in the entire NHL, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will look to power the Oilers to playoff success with the extra minutes they will no doubt play in the postseason. Edmonton is an intriguing option.
Calgary Flames (+1600)
The Calgary Flames are a long shot at best. Their offense is average, and while Cam Tabolt has been good in his 26 starts, they may have a tough time even making it past the Winnipeg Jets to qualify for the quarterfinals if they can’t score enough goals.
The Flames had just 79 points on the season, good for seventh in the West. For context, this point total would tie them for 10th in the Eastern Conference. Because the NHL decided to seed teams based on winning percentage, the seventh-place Flames become the eighth seed, while the sixth-place Winnipeg Jets are the ninth seed. Calgary has the toughest road of all of the hopefuls to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Vancouver Canucks (+1700)
The Vancouver Canucks at least have goal scoring on their side. Although tied for eighth in the league with 3.2 goals per contest, the Canucks have a laughable 78 points on the season. They have been horrible on the road and probably belong in “The Rest†category.
However, J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson can help carry the offense if goaltender Jacob Markstrom gets hot. In the bottom half of the league in goals-against average, the Canucks are going to live and die with Markstrom’s play in net.
The Rest
- Minnesota Wild (+1800)
- Nashville Predators (+1900)
- Arizona Coyotes (+2000)
- Winnipeg Jets (+2500)
- Chicago Blackhawks (+3500)
These five teams have virtually no chance to advance all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. With Vancouver and Nashville tied for eighth place, only one of these teams was expected to make the playoffs if the season were not suspended. That team, the Winnipeg Jets, has the second-worst odds among them, which tells us all we need to know regarding their actual talent level and chances to advance in the postseason. While they could make it past the Calgary Flames, they’d then run into St. Louis or Colorado in the quarterfinals.
Nashville’s qualifier/opening round will be against the Arizona Coyotes. The Predators have some talent, especially at defenseman with Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, but they do not have the top-level offensive weapons or goaltending necessary to make a serious run in 2020.
Final Thoughts
While most consider the Western Conference playoffs a four-team race, it actually appears to be a two-team battle between the Colorado Avalanche and the Vegas Golden Knights. Edmonton lurks as a dark horse but will need its goaltending duo to step up.
The odds on the Avalanche are generous enough to make them the top play. At +325, there is minimal difference between Colorado and Vegas (+350). The implied odds suggest that Colorado has a 23.5 percent probability to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. At +350, Vegas’ implied probability is 22.2 percent. Colorado is the better team when healthy and is better built for playoff hockey.
The gap between these two teams should be at least five percent, which suggests that the Avalanche would be a value until they drop to +264. With better offense, better goaltending, and arguably a better defense, there is little reason to shy away from Colorado. The odds are high enough to employ a multi-team strategy. But if you are searching for the best value on the board, wager on the Avalanche.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche (+325)
NHL Futures: Best Bet to Win the Eastern Conference
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.