NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/18)
After a busy second week across the NHL, this Friday’s slate only features a three-pack of action. Here’s a look at the full slate.
Friday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Carolina Hurricanes (-162) at Pittsburgh Penguins (+134) | O/U 6.5 (-105/-115)
This is a trickier matchup to peg, as Carolina has played only two games to this point. However, the Hurricanes have held true to their identity in the small sample size, dominating possession and scoring chances.
I don’t have a strong take on the side or total in this game, as Carolina’s sample size makes this game tougher to assess. Plus, both the Canes and Penguins have played to an above-average expected goals for percentage early on in the season.
That said, I do like a prop in this game. I’m taking Andrei Svechnikov to score a goal tonight. The winger has posted 1.2 expected goals in Carolina’s first two games but hasn’t lit the lamp yet. I suspect that’ll change in what could be a high-scoring affair.
Bet: Andrei Svechnikov Anytime Goal Scorer (+220)
San Jose Sharks (+310) at Winnipeg Jets (-400) | O/U 5.5 (-120/-102)
The 0-2-2 Sharks will play on back-to-back nights after losing in Chicago Thursday night. And they’ll be massive underdogs against a 3-0-0 Jets squad that hasn’t played since Sunday.
While the line would indicate otherwise, I don’t think there’s been that much separation between these teams to begin the year. I’m also not overly impressed by the Jets, who have won consecutive overtime games against the Blackhawks and Wild. In the Chicago game, the Jets needed a goal with just over a minute left in the third period to tie things up before winning in overtime.
Don’t be mistaken, Winnipeg is the better team. But the metrics don’t suggest a big difference between these squads either, per Natural Stat Trick:
- Corsi For %: Winnipeg – 50.16%, San Jose – 44.13%
- Expected Goals For %: Winnipeg – 48.96%, San Jose – 46.08%
Winnipeg has also compiled only 20 high-danger chances to 22 allowed, while San Jose has 33 high-danger chances to 42 against.
We’ll be backing a pretty bad Sharks team to crack Connor Hellebuyck, who has been elite to start the year. But the Sharks will have Mackenzie Blackwood in net, who I trust more than last night’s starter Vitek Vanecek. Plus, the back-to-back situation doesn’t concern me as much earlier in the season with very little tread on the tires. Also, I think Winnipeg’s long layoff could be a little disadvantageous here.
It’s crazy, but it’s Friday night. Let’s take San Jose to get its first win of the year. If you’re more squeamish, I like a play on the spread as well.
Bet: Sharks Moneyline (+310) or Sharks +1.5 (+120)
Anaheim Ducks (+220) at Colorado Avalanche (-275) | O/U 6.5 (-122/+100)
The Colorado Avalanche may have a goaltending problem, as their encouraging metrics are undermined by horrific play in net. Colorado’s goalies have posted an SV% just above .810 to start the year, which is the clear culprit for Colorado’s four-game losing skid to start the season.
I don’t have a strong feel for this game. The analytics suggest Colorado should snap its losing streak night. However, the Ducks are a plucky underdog and I just can’t lay the money on Colorado’s goaltending situation. This is a pass with a slight lean toward the Avs and the over.
Bet: Pass
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: