NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/25)
The 2024-25 NHL season is in full swing, here’s a breakdown of this Friday’s four-pack of games.
Friday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ottawa Senators (+108) at Vegas Golden Knights (-130), O/U: 6.5
Neither of these teams is in great form at the moment, but what’s most notable is that the Golden Knights are scoring on 13% of their shots at 5-on-5 play. That high shooting percentage helps explain why Vegas has posted a 56.76% goals for percentage at 5-on-5, but has an expected goals percentage below 44%. However, Ottawa’s goaltending has been mediocre to start the year, posting an 89% save percentage at 5-on-5.
And conversely, Ottawa is struggling to bury opportunities, posting a shooting percentage of just over 5%.
Maybe something has to give in what feels like a matchup made for regression. I don’t mind taking a stab at Ottawa, especially if Linus Ullmark is between the pipes.
The pick: Senators +108
New York Islanders (+114) at New Jersey Devils (-137), O/U: 6.5
Fascinating matchup here. The Islanders have been shutout in three of their last five games, but have scored 10 goals in the two other games. Meanwhile, every Devils game recently has been a track meet, with 32 goals being scored in New Jersey’s last three games, all of which are losses.
The Devils will turn to backup Jake Allen in the net, and he’s been better than newly-acquired netminder Jacob Markstrom thus far. The assumption is Ilya Sorokin will be between the pipes for New York, but the Isles should have the goaltending advantage either way.
New York has also been better in regards to expected goals at 5-on-5. While the Devils are a scoring chance-generating machine, the Islanders have done a great job at suppressing scoring opportunities. Not a game I love, but I’d lean toward the Isles.
The pick: Lean Islanders +114
Nashville Predators (-176) at Chicago Blackhawks (+146), O/U: 5.5
It hasn’t been an ideal start for the new-look Predators, who won their first game of the season against Boston Tuesday night. That being said, Nashville hasn’t exactly deserved better results, as they’ve posted an expected goals for a percentage just below 50%.
Chicago has dropped two straight at home to superior opponents, but they’ve been at least somewhat respectable to start the year.
Opponents have been able to generate plenty of scoring chances against Chicago, and I expect Nashville to light the lamp early and often. That being said, I don’t love laying this number with them on the road.
The pick: Pass, Lean Over
Pittsburgh Penguins (+172) at Edmonton Oilers (-210), O/U: 6.5
Two confounding teams who the analytics speak highly of, but the results don’t measure up. This is a pass all the way.
The pick: Pass