NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (1/30)

10 games are available to bet on Thursday’s NHL slate. There’s plenty of value on the board tonight and I’ll be taking us to two arenas for a total bet and a moneyline bet.

Last week’s NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions went 0-2, ending our hot streak. The New York Rangers won 6-1 at home against Philadelphia, losing under 5.5 total goals at even odds. Montreal also struggled to contain Detroit’s offense, losing 4-2 on the road, which resulted in another loss on the Canadiens as road underdogs at +110 odds.

Let’s get back in the win column and build our bankroll with a pair of one-unit plays during Thursday’s early NHL slate. We’re going to the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia for a rematch between the Islanders and Flyers, in addition to Washington going to the Canadian Tire Centre to improve to 2-0 against the Ottawa Senators. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and weekly analysis.

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Thursday’s NHL Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators

Washington and Ottawa’s first matchup at the Canadian Tire Centre was scoreless in regulation, before Capitals star veteran Alex Ovechkin buried the game-winning goal in overtime. Expect a similar low-scoring affair between two of the league’s best goal total under opponents.

The goal total has gone under in five straight games for Washington, including five consecutive road contests, while hitting in six of Ottawa’s last seven home games. The Senators have confirmed goaltender Anton Forsberg in the crease tonight, who has allowed only one goal against three of his past four opponents. Forsberg didn’t start against Washington two weeks ago but he’s rested since recording a 2-1 win against Toronto at home on January 26th.

The Capitals are expected to deploy secondary goaltender Charlie Lindgren in lieu of the red-hot Logan Thompson. Lindgren has played well lately, holding Seattle and Vancouver to two total goals, including a 3-0 shutout win on the road against the Kraken. He’s endured some rough stretches this season but Ottawa ranks 25th in goals per game (2.7) and 14th in converting their power play at 22.2 percent.

Washington stacks wins but relies on its defense and goaltending to gain an edge in most matchups. The Capitals are first in goals allowed (2.3) per game, 12th in shots allowed (27.4) but rank third in goals scored per game (3.5) despite only averaging 27.2 shots on goal (25th) this season.

Let’s stake a unit and lay a bit of juice on this Eastern Conference tilt going under 5.5 total goals at -134 odds between Washington and Ottawa tonight.

Pick: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-134)

New York Islanders vs. Philadelphia Flyers

The Islanders and Flyers are trending in opposite directions right now. New York has won five consecutive games, while Philadelphia is coming off of a 5-0 shutout loss at home against New Jersey on Wednesday night. The Flyers once again host but are playing on a back-to-back, confirming goaltender Ivan Fedotov in the crease.

Fedotov hasn’t recorded a win as a starter for Philadelphia since November 29th against the New York Rangers. He’s allowed three goals in three of his last four starts, which included a 3-1 road loss to the Islanders on January 24th.

The Islanders are expected to start Ilya Sorokin in between the pipes at Wells Fargo Center tonight. Sorokin has been playing well, allowing four total goals in his last three starts, resulting in a 3-0 record. He’s a big reason why New York is riding a five-game winning streak. However, his last loss came against the Flyers in their first matchup on January 16th, ceding four goals in a 5-3 loss at home.

New York has only gone 1-6 ATS against the Flyers on the road in its last seven games. Philadelphia owns a 4-1 SU record at home in their last five games played, excluding Wednesday’s shutout loss to the Devils.

We’re not getting much value on the Islanders since they are peaking right now, with oddsmakers valuing them as road favorites at -125 moneyline odds. The Flyers have lost as home underdogs on the second leg of a back-to-back 17 consecutive times, while the Islanders have a rest advantage after coming off of back-to-back wins against quality opponents like the Hurricanes and Avalanche.

It could wind up being a trap but I’m willing to bet a unit on the team currently playing in better form. That’s the Islanders, who have scored at least three goals in six straight games. They have a better goaltender and the Flyers have been held to two or fewer goals in four of their last five games played. Sorokin will bounce back after a disappointing showing against Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago.

Let’s stake one more unit on the Islanders’ moneyline at -125 odds as marginal road favorites against a struggling Flyers offense.

Pick: Islanders Moneyline (-125)