NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (11/13)
We have a big 10-game slate tonight and some prop bet trends to consider. Let’s take a look.
Thursday’s NHL Best Bets & Picks
Year to date: +23.83 units
Anaheim Ducks (+134) at Detroit Red Wings (-134)
Yes, I’m going to write about the Ducks again. No, I will not apologize for it. When a team is hot, you go with it. After the expected loss at Colorado, they head to Detroit to face a Red Wings team that is 9-7 and perfectly bland in many ways. There is nothing the Red Wings do particularly well, and nothing at which they seem objectively terrible. They sit in the middle of basically everything. The Ducks are outperforming their metrics, but they have some players who have thus far been betting boons. Former Anaheim goalie John Gibson will be in net for Detroit. Gibson has a save percentage of .882 and an adjusted GAA of 3.26. Lukáš Dostál will be guarding the opposite net. Dostál is having a great season, with a .908 save percentage and 2.84 adjusted GAA. His numbers are worse on the road, though. These two teams played at the end of October in Anaheim, with a final score of 5-2. The Ducks can pour in goals in bunches, so I’m taking the over 6.5.
I am most interested in props for this one. Leo Carlsson has been a points machine, collecting 26 points in 16 games with a plus/minus of +9. Fifteen of his points have come via assist, and as long as that remains plus money, we might as well play it. Dylan Larkin is continuing his own points barrage, collecting 19 of them in 16 games. The two together give us a nice payout. In that same vein, Alex DeBrincat and Troy Terry have also been big points contributors. Additionally, Cutter Gauthier is shooting the puck at a high rate, taking 4+ shots in four of his last five.
Pick: Over 6.5
Pick: Leo Carlsson Over 0.5 Assists (+105)
Pick: Leo Carlsson + Dylan Larkin Point Parlay (+122)
Pick: Alex DeBrincat + Troy Terry Point Parlay (+128)
Pick: Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 SOG (+106)
San Jose Sharks (+142) at Calgary Flames (-147)
This year’s Sharks look different from the last couple of years. Maybe calling teams “frisky” is overused… But San Jose fits the bill. They are 8-6, scoring 3.24 goals per game while allowing 3.29. On the other side of the coin, the 4-12 Flames seem un-frisky. They are scoring a league-low 2.06 goals per game and allowing a middling 3.17 goals to opponents. The thing they do have in common, however, is allowing shots to come pouring in against their goalies. San Jose allows 31.9; Calgary allows 29.7.
San Jose is a much better road team than it is at home, averaging 3.86 goals scored when they sleep in a hotel the night before. Their PP% jumps from 9.1 to 34.8, too. Flames have allowed the third-most power play opportunities this season, while the Sharks are seventh, yet both teams are in the bottom third in penalty kill percentage.
I lean toward the under 6.5 at -125 because both teams have played in a lot of low-scoring games this season. However, my top play is the Sharks as underdogs, given their increased scoring on the road and the Flames’ struggles to put up big numbers.
For props, I’m looking at Macklin Celebrini to continue his torrent points blitz. He sits fourth in the league at 26 and has failed to record a point in only two games this season. Let’s bet him to pick up a point on a power play tonight. And since both teams love to shoot the puck, let’s combine a small SOG parlay with Will Smith and Morgan Frost, both of whom have crossed this mark in two-thirds of their games.
Pick: San Jose ML (+142)
Lean: Under 6.5 (-125)
Pick: Macklin Celebrini Power Play Point (+197)
Pick: Will Smith + Morgan Frost Over 1.5 SOG Each (+150)
Favorite Goalie Plays
Our five-star bets on goalie saves are up 11.22 units this season. Here are today’s best bets:
| Goalie | Matchup | Line | O/U | Odds |
| Jakub Dobes | DAL @ MTL | 23.5 | Over | -120 |
| Dustin Wolf | SJ @ CGY | 22.5 | Over | -130 |
| John Gibson | ANA @ DET | 23.5 | Over | -110 |
| Dennis Hildeby | LA @ TOR | 25.5 | Over | -110 |
Favorite SOG Plays
So far this season, betting the under on Shots on Goal rated five stars in our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet is up 21.69 units. In 2024, this particular bet was up 54.98 units. Here are today’s five-star under bets.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Odds |
| Eeli Tolvanen | WPG @ SEA | 1.5 | -110 |
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