NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Thursday (5/1)
Four potential elimination games are on tap for Thursday night’s NHL Stanley Cup Playoff slate. Toronto, Vegas, and Dallas are all up 3-2 and playing their opponent on the road tonight. The Los Angeles Kings are the lone road team down 3-2 against the Edmonton Oilers, blowing a 2-0 lead by losing three straight games entering Game 6.
My NHL Best Bets from last Thursday, April 24th, wound up 2-2. Florida shut out Tampa Bay on the road for a 2-0 win, cashing their +105 moneyline odds. Then, St. Louis routed Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets 7-2 to cash as a home underdog with their moneyline set to -106 odds. The two losing wagers were Ottawa’s overtime loss and Vegas’ 5-2 defeat, which allowed us to come away with a small profit.
I’m back with an NHL best bet to tail in every playoff game on Thursday’s jam-packed betting board. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and weekly analysis throughout the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Thursday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
All of a sudden, Toronto is feeling the familiar pressure to close out a playoff series. The Maple Leafs were shut out on home ice during a 4-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators in Game 5. Now, Toronto will head into a hostile environment at the Canadian Tire Centre to try closing out the “Battle of Ontario” on the road.
The Senators have won back-to-back games after digging themselves into a 3-0 deficit. Brady Tkachuk leads Ottawa with six points, including three goals, while goaltender Linus Ullmark is coming off of his best performance against Toronto in Game 5.
Oddsmakers now value Ottawa as a slight home favorite with their moneyline set at -118 odds. I tend to agree with oddsmakers on this line. The Senators lost two of the first three games in overtime during this series, before winning Game 4 in overtime. They struck first in Game 5 and held onto the lead, blanking Toronto despite being outshot 29-19.
Ottawa is the more physical team and will benefit from home ice advantage in Game 6. The Senators have no pressure or expectations, unlike the Maple Leafs, so let’s bet a unit on Ottawa’s -118 moneyline odds, forcing a Game 7 back in Toronto.
Pick: Senators Moneyline (-118)
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
This Western Conference series has been much more evenly matched with Wild star F Kirill Kaprizov back in the lineup. Kaprizov leads both teams with nine points, including five goals. Wild F Matt Boldy also has netted five goals to match Kaprizov.
Vegas’ defense has been exposed by the Kaprizov-Boldy duo on Minnesota’s top attack line and powerplay unit. The Wild return home down 3-2 in this series following a 3-2 overtime loss to the Golden Knights on the road in Game 5.
This game comes down to goaltending. Golden Knights goaltender, Adin Hill, has been outplayed by the Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson has a .919 save percentage, compared to an .865 save percentage by Hill.
Vegas has more depth and experience. Yet they aren’t built to win in a high-scoring, back-and-forth outing. Minnesota’s first attack line is much more talented in comparison and will benefit from playing Game 6 on home ice.
The Wild are the more desperate team, while also rostering better scoring talent and goaltending. Let’s bet a unit on the Wild to win outright as home underdogs tonight at +136 odds.
Pick: Wild Moneyline (+136)
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
Dallas bounced back with a strong 6-2 win on home ice to take a 3-2 series lead in Game 5. Now, the Stars head back to Ball Arena in Denver to try closing out this First Round series against the Colorado Avalanche.
Colorado C Nathan MacKinnon remains the best player on the ice. He’ll need support from the rest of his team to force a Game 7 back in Dallas. Aside from MacKinnon, who leads the Avalanche with seven points, including five goals, only Logan O’Connor has more than three points (5) through five games played.
Dallas remains without F Jason Robertson and D Miro Heiskanen but they’ve found ways to overcome these key losses due to injury. The Stars finally got Wyatt Johnston going in Game 5 and now, he leads Dallas with five points. D Thomas Harley and F Mikko Rantanen are close behind with four points each.
Jake Oettinger outplayed Mackenzie Blackwood in the crease during Dallas’ 6-2 win. Colorado fell into a 1-0 deficit nine seconds into the game, forcing the Avalanche to play from behind. The Stars built a 3-0 lead before allowing the Avalanche to trim the deficit to 3-2. Then, Johnston and Mason Marchment buried a pair of goals a couple minutes later to seal the win.
Blackwood and Oettinger have been fairly even in this series. Oettinger has a .914 save percentage, compared to Blackwood’s .909 save percentage. Blackwood is the only one to record a shutout thus far.
Colorado has played well on home ice during this series. They lost Game 3, 2-1 in overtime, before posting a 4-0 shutout win in Game 4. I see tonight’s game being a tightly contested, physical battle where goals will be at a premium.
Under 6.5 total goals has hit in three of five games played between the Stars and Avalanche in this series, including both games at Ball Arena. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 win by one of these teams tonight. Instead of picking a side, let’s bet a unit on under 6.5 total goals at -134 odds.
Pick: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-134)
Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Los Angeles Kings have lost all momentum from their 2-0 series lead and now face elimination on the road at Rogers Place tonight. Game 6 is a must-win for the Kings, who nearly came away with a Game 4 win, before giving up a late equalizer to wind up losing in overtime.
Edmonton has been led by their top two stars, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, each netting 10 points ahead of Game 6. The Oilers’ decision to replace goaltender Stuart Skinner with Calvin Pickard has paid off. Pickard has a .904 save percentage and is 3-0 in this series as a starter.
Kings goaltender, Darcy Kuemper, who played phenomenal in between the pipes during the regular season, has looked pedestrian in this series. Kuemper has an .899 save percentage. Los Angeles’ stout defense has not been able to contain Edmonton’s explosive offense.
The Oilers have a ton of confidence heading back home for Game 6. Adrian Kempe, Andrei Kuzmenko and Kevin Fiala have been the primary goal scorers for the Kings and they’ll need these three players to step up in a big way tonight.
Game 5 was the first time we saw the goal total go under 5.5 in this series. Oddsmakers have set it to 5.5 with -138 odds on the over for Game 6, while the Oilers are -170 moneyline favorites at home.
The Kings’ loss in Game 4 seemingly flipped the series on its head. They looked less threatening at home in Game 5, failing to play their brand of hockey on home ice, where Los Angeles has been dominant all season. I doubt they find a way to outscore the Oilers in a close-out game on the road.
Let’s bet a unit on the Oilers to win in regulation and close out this series in six games at -105 odds.
Pick: Oilers 60 Min Moneyline (3 Way) (-105)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.