Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/1)
We have a loaded 11-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Vegas Golden Knights (+100) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (-120) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)
In what is arguably the best game of the slate, the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins host the Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights. Despite the difference in records, these two teams are much closer, which is why oddsmakers have this game closer to a pick ’em, with the Penguins getting the edge due to home-ice advantage.
However, despite how good each team is, Vegas holds a slight edge in almost all of the key categories. Entering this game, they rank higher than Pittsburgh in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5 and in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5.
Additionally, the Golden Knights have the goaltending edge in what will likely be Logan Thopmson versus Tristan Jarry. Through 16 starts this season, Thompson is 12-4 with a .921 SV% and 2.44 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, he ranks sixth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. Meanwhile, Jarry ranks just 23rd.
Both teams are missing their top defenseman as Alex Pietrangelo is out for personal reasons, while Kris Letang suffered a stroke this past week. Thankfully, Letang is expected to recover fully and could even return later this season.
In a game as close as this one, the value resides with the Knights at plus money.
Best Bet: Golden Knights ML (+100)
Carolina Hurricanes (-135) @ St. Louis Blues (+115) | O/U 5.5 (-120/+100)
We are going to back another road team as the Metropolitan Division’s Carolina Hurricanes travel to St. Louis to take on the Blues of the Central Division. Slated to take the crease for Carolina is goaltender Antti Raanta.
Through eight starts this season, Raanta is 4-2-2 with a .901 SV% and 2.47 GAA. While those stats are underwhelming, he is much more trustworthy than his counterpart in this contest, as the erratic Jordan Binnington is slated to get the start for St. Louis.
Over his last three starts, Binnington is 0-3 with a .840 SV% and 4.34 GAA. Through two career appearances against Carolina, he possesses a .875 SV% and 3.30 GAA.
In terms of personnel, the Canes possess a big advantage over the Blues. At 5v5, Carolina ranks eighth in the league in xGF/60 and third in xGA/60.
Meanwhile, St. Louis ranks just 18th and 20th, respectively, in those two categories. Besides some depth offensively, there are a lot of question marks with this Blues team, and we should not expect them to be able to compete with the big talent advantage that Carolina will have on the ice in this contest.
Best Bet: Hurricanes ML (-135)
Florida Panthers (-140) @ Vancouver Canucks (+120) | O/U 6.5 (-135/+115)
In one of the late games on Thursday night, the Pacific Division’s Vancouver Canucks host the Atlantic Division’s Florida Panthers. While the over is juiced heavily in this contest, it is still worth taking these two teams to score at least seven total goals.
Slated to take the crease for Vancouver is Thatcher Demko, who has been one of the worst starting goaltenders in hockey this season. Through 14 starts, Demko is 3-9-2 with a .887 SV% and 3.80 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 24th in GSAx/60 at 5v5. In front of Demko is one of the worst defenses in the league as the Canucks rank just 27th in xGA/60 at 5v5.
However, they possess a ton of firepower offensively between the likes of Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Andrei Kuzmenko. This offense has been particularly buzzing lately, scoring four or more goals in six of their last seven games.
Meanwhile, Florida’s offense needs no introduction. One of the most fast-paced, electric offenses in hockey, the Panthers yet again rank towards the top of the league (second) in xGF/60 at 5v5.
Seven or more total goals have been scored in each of Florida’s last eight games and in five of Vancouver’s last eight. Back the trends to continue in what should be an entertaining game.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-135)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.