Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/27)
We have a loaded 10-game slate of hockey on Thursday with some great matchups as the season continues to get underway. Below, I give out my three best bets for Thursday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Florida Panthers (-200) @ Philadelphia Flyers (+170) | O/U 6.5 (-125/+105)
In one of the first games on Thursday’s slate, we have an Eastern Conference tilt as the Metropolitan Division’s Philadelphia Flyers host the Atlantic Division’s Florida Panthers. The big storyline to start the year for Florida was the injury to star defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who was placed on LTIR with a lower-body injury.
In his absence, defenseman Brandon Montour has stepped into a first-pairing role while also skating with the first power-play unit. Montour has done a terrific job in this expanded role, posting three assists and going +2 through three games.
This strong play should continue against Philadelphia. Over his last six games against the Flyers, Montour has found the back of the net four times.
At 5v5, Philadelphia ranks just 24th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). We are getting some strong value in this line because Carter Hart is projected to take the crease for the Flyers and has been lights out to start the year.
However, Hart starts strong every year before regression sets in, and going against a high-powered Florida offense is the sort of outing that could kick in that trend again.
Best Bet: Brandon Montour o0.5 Points (Play up to -110)
Detroit Red Wings (+190) @ Boston Bruins (-225) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)
We have an Atlantic Division tilt as the Boston Bruins host the Detroit Red Wings. Looking at another play prop in this game, there may not be a hotter forward in hockey this week than Dominik Kubalik of the Red Wings.
Since forward Tyler Bertuzzi left the lineup with an upper-body injury, Kubalik has stepped in seamlessly. Over his last five games, Kubalik has logged four goals and six assists as he has looked dynamite for the first time in a couple of years.
It helps that Kubalik is skating alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond on the first line, both of whom are excellent playmakers. That being said, Kubalik is driving a lot of play on his own and is looking like another home run acquisition for general manager Steve Yzerman.
Will he keep It going against Boston? While their blue line has looked excellent, the goaltending has been spotty.
Projected to take the crease for the Bruins is Jeremy Swayman, who has had a forgettable start to the season. Through two starts, Swayman is 1-1 with a .816 SV% and 5.40 GAA.
If he qualified, Swayman would rank dead last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. In his last start against Detroit, Swayman allowed four goals on 28 shots for a .857 SV%.
Best Bet: Dominik Kubalik o0.5 Points (+105)
Washington Capitals (+105) @ Dallas Stars (-125) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)
In our last play, we look at this interconference tilt as the Central Division’s Dallas Stars host the Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals. Starting the year in good form, the Stars currently sit atop the Central, which is largely thanks to strong defense and excellent goaltending.
At 5v5, Dallas ranks eighth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this strong defense is a likely Vezina candidate this season, goaltender Jake Oettinger.
Through five starts this season, Oettinger is 4-1 with a .953 SV% and 1.41 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks third in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
Across the analytical board, Washington is the inferior team to Dallas. At 5v5, they rank 27th in the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60.
The Stars have won four of the last six meetings between these two teams and are in a great spot to add another victory on home ice.
Best Bet: Dallas Stars ML (-125)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.