Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/22)
The NHL's "Frozen Frenzy" is tonight, as all 32 teams in the league are set to hit the ice. I've sifted through the matchups and narrowed in on three bets for tonight's slate. Here are my favorite wagers from this loaded 16-game slate.
Tuesday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Washington Capitals (-102) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-118) | O/U 6.0 (+102/-122)
The Flyers aren't off to a great start this year, posting a record of 1-3-1 through five games. They've lost their last four contests. Philly will try to bounce back tonight when it hosts Washington, who's 3-1-0. The two sides are set to play a home-and-home set. Their game tomorrow is the only one on the schedule. Tonight's game is slated for 6:00 p.m. ET from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA.
I'll play the under in this Metropolitan Division showdown. For the Flyers, their offense has been an issue this season. They're averaging only 2.4 goals per game, which is 29th in the NHL. They'll be looking to score on Philadelphia's Samuel Ersson, who's a modest 1-1-1 with a 2.99 GAA (27th) and .894 SV% (30th).
Two additional metrics stand out here. First, these are two of the worst offenses when it comes to 5-on-5 expected goals this season. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the category (7.82), while Washington's 29th (9.14). The other angle is that both penalty-killing units rank in the top 10 - both tied for eighth in the NHL at 85.71%. Ultimately, neither team has a ton of offensive talent, so I'm expecting goals to be tough to come by. I'll lock in the under in the City of Brotherly Love.
Bet: Under 6 Goals (-122)
Vancouver Canucks (-180) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (+150) | O/U 6.0 (-105/-115)
After a winless 0-1-2 start to the year, the Canucks have bounced back and rattled off two straight victories. They'll go for a third straight against the Blackhawks tonight, who are 2-3-1 out of the gate. This Western Conference clash gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET from the United Center in Chicago, IL.
At least six goals have been scored in four out of Chicago’s six games this season. Their power play has been lighting it up, cashing in on 29.41% of their man-advantage opportunities (sixth). My outlook on Chicago is that they're going to keep progressing offensively this year. They've added some decent veteran pieces around the emerging Connor Bedard and are primed to take a step forward. I'm not saying they light the league on fire, but they are a respectable 16th in 5-on-5 expected goals (11.29) this year.
On the other hand, the Canucks profile as a team that could play in a lot of high-scoring games this year. Their offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders, as they're scoring 2.8 goals per game (23rd). However, they have the talent in their top-six to rack up the goals. Reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes (17 goals, 85 assists in 2023-24) is running the blue line. With Thatcher Demko (lower-body) still sidelined, we should see Vancouver play in more high-scoring games early on. I like the over at a flat 6.0 goals, giving us "push potential" as well.
Bet: Over 6 Goals (-105)
Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. Calgary Flames (-110) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
Let's wrap it up in the Great White North, where the Flames host the Penguins in a cross-conference tilt. The Pens (3-4-0) are in the midst of a four-game West Coast road trip, where they dropped the opening game 6-3 to the Jets on Sunday. The Flames have been a surprise team this year, going 4-0-1 and picking up points in every game. This contest gets underway at 9:30 p.m. ET from the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.
I'm playing the Penguins on the Moneyline in this spot. Despite being just 3-4-0, they have the best 5-on-5 expected goals mark in the league at 19.14. In terms of actual scoring, Pittsburgh is just 15th (3.4 goals per game), so they're not getting the early-season "puck luck." They're running into a scrappy Calgary squad tonight, but Pittsburgh has the savvy veterans that should manage to collect two points.
I'm not buying the Flames this year. They've had a relatively light schedule, beating the Flyers (6-3), Blackhawks (3-1) and an Oilers team (4-1) in shambles at the moment. Their scoring output continues to decline, where they've scored the following goals over their five games: 6, 6, 4, 3, 1. I think this is a true marker of this team. Calgary has minimal top-end offensive talent, which has shown up in their 5-on-5 expected goals metric of 10.89 (13th). I'll back the Penguins to escape with the two points in Alberta tonight.
Bet: Penguins Moneyline (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: