NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/21)
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are in full swing, and we have four more first-round matchups on the docket on Tuesday. I've got you covered if you're looking to get in on the action. Below, I'll break down all four matchups, diving into the key metrics and trends to get you primed to make some money on the ice. Here are my top four NHL picks for Tuesday, April 21st.
Tuesday's Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Montreal Canadiens (+160) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-192) | O/U 5.5 (-130/+110)
This No. 2 versus No. 3 matchup in the Atlantic Division between the Canadiens (1-0) and the Lightning (0-1) is going to be an electric series. Game 1 lived up to the hype, with the Habs notching a 4-3 road win in overtime against the Bolts. The two sides are back at it this evening, and puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.
I'm locking in the over in this game, and I think it's playable up to six goals. There's simply too much offensive talent on the ice to pass up on an over in this range. The over has cashed in nine of the last 12 meetings between the clubs, while going 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head contests in Tampa. Across the last 10 matchups, the Lightning have out-scored the Canadiens by an average of 3.60 to 3.30.
Ultimately, I believe it'll be the Bolts' high-powered offense that drives the scoring in this one. They're taking on Jakub Dobes, who was solid at times this season for the Habs. However, his xGAA rises to 3.19 compared to his regular GAA of 2.78. Andrei Vasilevskiy's numbers in those categories are 2.31 and 2.74, also signaling negative regression.
Both netminders ranked outside the top 10 in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. I think the potent offenses outweigh the goaltending in this matchup. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 5.5 Goals (-130)
Boston Bruins (+150) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-180) | O/U 6.5 (+105/-125)
The first postseason game in Buffalo in 15 years didn't disappoint, as the Sabres (1-0) mounted a legendary comeback on Sunday, beating the Bruins (0-1) 4-3 after trailing 2-0 with under eight minutes left in the game.
It was a brutal beat for under bettors, with the contest seeing five goals in the final eight minutes. Puck drop for Game 2 is tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.
I'm taking an underdog flier on the Bruins in Game 2. They were so close to pulling off the upset in Game 1, and I think they patch things up and take care of business tonight. The B's have owned this series in recent history, going 13-7 straight up (SU) in their last 20 games against the Sabres.
Buffalo closed the season on an incredible run, but the underlying numbers down the stretch weren't remarkable. They were just 19th in xGoals% (50.23%), 26th in high-danger shots on goal (29) and 12th in save percentage (.889). This game should be priced around -140 in favor of the Sabres. There's value with the Bruins in this one. I'm taking the +150 payout that comes with Boston.
Bet: Bruins Moneyline (+150)
Utah Mammoth (+130) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-155) | O/U 6.5 (+114/-135)
The Golden Knights (1-0) stayed hot under Coach John Tortorella, improving to 8-0-1 under the new skipper with their series-opening 4-2 victory over the Mammoth (0-1) on Sunday night. Game 2 is slated for 9:30 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
I've seen plenty of people saying that the Mammoth could be darkhorse candidates to come out of the Pacific Division side of the bracket, but that would imply that they knock off the Golden Knights. I don't see that happening, and I think we have to ride with Vegas while they're scorching hot. The Golden Knights have excelled against Utah at home, going 11-3 SU in the last 14 meetings at T-Mobile.
On that note, let's not forget that T-Mobile Arena, aptly named The Fortress, has been a huge asset for the Golden Knights. Even with their weird season, where they had 17 overtime losses in total, Vegas still went a solid 20-12-9 at home.
I ran a search dating back throughout their full playoff history, and the Golden Knights are 35-21 SU (62.5%) in home games. Ultimately, this price seems short on Vegas. I'd probably lay as high as a -180 vig (64.3% implied win probability), so I'll gladly take them at -155.
Bet: Golden Knights Moneyline (-155)
Los Angeles Kings (+240) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-298) | O/U 5.5 (-125/+105)
Well, the Avalanche (1-0) didn't make it easy on themselves, taking several late penalties in Game 1, but they eventually prevailed 2-1 over the eighth-seeded Kings (0-1). The two Western Conference foes are back in action tonight, and Game 2 is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, CO.
Scott Wedgewood sneakily put together a Vezina-caliber season in net for the Avalanche. Unfortunately for him, he won't receive a lot of the credit, and he still closed the season as a massive longshot to actually win the award. Nevertheless, Wedgewood ranked first in GAA (2.02) and SV% (.921) during the regular season, finishing with the third-most shutouts (four).
This is a comfortable spot for Wedgewood, who doesn't have a ton of postseason experience on his resume. He'll take on a Kings side that finished the season ranked 29th in goals per 60 minutes (2.63), 30th in shooting rate (9.57%) and 27th in high-danger shots on goal (259). Wedgewood and the veteran Avalanche defense should have another successful night. I'll ride with them to keep the Kings under their team total of 2.5 goals at -160.
Bet: Kings Team Total Under 2.5 Goals (-160)