NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/12)
It's just a slim four-game slate in the NHL tonight, but the good news is that we have bets for all four games. Below you can find the odds, as well as my analysis and favorite wagers for each contest. We're coming off of a solid 2-1 night with last night's plays. Let's stay hot.
Wednesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Buffalo Sabres (+114) vs. Detroit Red Wings (-137) | O/U 6.5 (-102/-120)
The action opens up in Motown, where the Red Wings (30-28-6) are looking to snap an ugly 0-6-0 run. They'll take on an Atlantic Division foe in the Sabres (25-32-6). Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.
Detroit hasn't been sharp on either end of the ice recently, but the defense has probably been the worst of the two units. During their six-game slide, the Wings are conceding 3.8 goals per game. This has dropped Detroit down to 24th in overall GAA (2.98). The Red Wings have the league's worst penalty-killing unit, sitting at just 69.54%. To put that in perspective, the worst penalty kill in NHL history is the 1979-80 Kings at just 68.2%.
Being that this game features a pair of underwhelming defenses, I'm going to play the over 6.5 goals. Buffalo's defense continues to be one of the worst in the NHL as well, where they're 28th in GAA (3.14) and 31st in SV% (.881). They're 22nd on the penalty kill (76.84%) and 29th in high-danger shots against (255). Offensively, both teams are 20th or better in shooting percentage, so they should be able to capitalize on each other's atrocious defenses. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-102)
Vancouver Canucks (+102) vs. Calgary Flames (-122) | O/U 5.5 (-118/-104)
The Canucks (29-24-11) enter tonight's Pacific Division tilt with the Flames (30-23-10) on the second night of a back-to-back, on the heels of a 4-2 loss to the Canadiens last night. This fourth-place (Flames) vs. fifth-place (Canucks) matchup in the Pacific Division is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET from the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.
The Flames haven't been able to produce much offense this season, which has forced them to be reliant on their defense. Luckily, the defense has held up well, as Calgary comes into this game ranked 15th in GAA (2.71) and eighth in GAA (.902). They're a modest 12th in high-danger shots against (109). Calgary has seen eight of its last nine games stay under 5.5 goals.
As I mentioned, the big issue with the Flames is their offense, where they're dead last in scoring (2.6 goals per game) and 31st in shooting percentage (8.84%). They're running into a Canucks club that has allowed the fourth-fewest high-danger shots (201). On the offensive side, Vancouver is 31st in expected goals per 60 minutes (2.63), so the underlying metrics suggest they're a pretty bad offense this season. I'll ride with the under in this divisional game.
Bet: Under 5.5 Goals (-104)
Anaheim Ducks (+184) vs. Utah Hockey Club (-225) | O/U 5.5 (-132/+108)
The Ducks (28-29-7) are coming off a 7-4 barnburning loss to the Capitals last night. They make the quick trip over to Salt Lake City to take on the Hockey Club (28-25-11). This Western Conference showdown is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.
Typically, Anaheim isn't known for its offense. They're 31st in scoring this season, averaging 2.6 goals per game. However, I'm going to ride with the Ducks to score at least three goals tonight. Anaheim lit the lamp four times last night and they've scored three or more goals in six of their last seven outings. They have some young talent that's continuing to develop, so I think it's worth backing them in this spot.
On the other hand, Utah has allowed at least three goals on three occasions during their current 1-1-2 stretch of play. The Hockey Club is 16th in GAA (2.73), 15th in SV% (.896) and 13th on the penalty kill (80.63%), so they're the epitome of an average defense. This isn't necessarily overwhelming data either way, but I simply like the way that the Ducks are playing as of late. I'll ride with them to score at least three goals tonight.
Bet: Ducks Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+110)
Montreal Canadiens (+122) vs. Seattle Kraken (-146) | O/U 5.5 (-138/+112)
The night wraps up in the Pacific Northwest with the Kraken (27-34-4) gearing up to host the Canadiens (31-27-6). The NHL nightcap gets going at 10:30 p.m. ET from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA.
The Kraken have been a bit of a bust this season, as they enter tonight's game as the fourth-worst team in the Western Conference. This team is just 4-6-0 across their last 10 games. They're an underwhelming 14-15-4 at home this year. During their current 2-5-0 stretch of play, Seattle is conceding 4.1 goals per game.
All of these anti-Kraken metrics are music to my ears because I believe the Canadiens boast one of the best under-the-radar offenses in the NHL. I'm going to ride with the Habs at plus-money tonight. Including last night's win, Montreal is now 6-1-1 in its last eight games. Both losses have been by just one goal. They've scored four or more goals in all six wins. Let's ride with the red-hot Habs as underdogs tonight in Seattle.
Bet: Canadiens Moneyline (+122)