NHL Odds & Picks: Thursday (Oilers vs. Stars)
The Edmonton Oilers can eliminate the Dallas Stars on the road during Game 5 of the 2025 NHL Western Conference Finals tonight. After blowing a 3-1 lead during Game 1 and surrendering five third-period goals to the Stars, the Oilers have won three straight games in this series.
Edmonton won the Western Conference in 2024 and came close to erasing a 3-0 Stanley Cup Finals deficit before losing Game 7 against the Florida Panthers. Florida punched their ticket to the 2025 Stanley Cup Finals with a 5-3 win over the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 5 on Wednesday night. Now, it’s the Oilers’ turn to close out the Stars in Game 5 on Thursday night.
Last Thursday, my two NHL picks settled 2-0 for a profitable night on the ice. The Panthers were underdogs in Game 2 on the road against the Hurricanes and routed them 5-0. Therefore, we cashed in on Florida’s moneyline at +106 odds, while also winning a +132 player point prop thanks to Panthers D Aaron Ekblad recording a pair of assists.
Tonight’s pivotal Game 5 tilt at American Airlines Center between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars is shaping up to be a highly entertaining matchup. Let’s aim for another sweep with two NHL player props, each worth one unit of your betting bankroll.
Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and game-by-game analysis for the remainder of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Thursday’s NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
60 Min Total Saves
Stuart Skinner has been red hot in goal for the Oilers since his return against Vegas in the Western Conference Semifinals. Edmonton’s netminder was benched due to poor play against Los Angeles in the First Round, surrendering 11 total goals.
After giving up four goals to the Golden Knights in Game 3, replacing an injured Calvin Pickard, Skinner posted back-to-back shutouts to help the Oilers beat Vegas in five games. Skinner has remained at the top of his game against the Stars in the Western Conference Finals.
Barring one bad period in Game 1, where Skinner allowed Dallas to score five goals, with most coming in the 3rd period, he’s been a brick wall. Skinner has one shutout against the Stars in this series, while holding Dallas’ offense to one goal in Game 3 and Game 4.
Skinner returns to American Airlines Center with plenty of confidence. He posted his lone shutout at American Airlines Center during a 3-0 win in Game 2, so Skinner shouldn’t be phased by the hostile crowd.
Factor in Dallas’ desperation down 3-1 and I expect Skinner will face 25+ shots on goal for the fifth straight time in the Western Conference Finals. He’s logged total saves of 22-25-33-28 against Dallas.
This total saves prop is a 60 minute betting market, meaning any saves recorded in overtime will not count. However, we haven’t seen extra time once in this series, with Edmonton taking control after blowing Game 1.
Dallas has plenty of firepower and depth on their offense. With their season at stake on home ice, I expect Skinner will face enough shots in regulation to go over 24.5 total saves, which is available to bet at -102 odds.
Pick: Stuart Skinner Over 24.5 Total Saves (-102)
Assists
The total points leader in this series hasn’t been Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Mikko Rantanen or Jason Robertson. It’s been Oilers F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who enters Game 5 with nine points, including seven assists through four games played in this 2025 NHL Western Conference Finals.
Nugent-Hopkins skates on the Oilers’ first-line attack alongside Connor McDavid, while earning great opportunities on their top powerplay unit. He’s logged at least one assist in all four games against the Stars, including five assists across Game 3 and Game 4.
With Zach Hyman ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs due to a season-ending surgery, Nugent-Hopkins will be expected to continue his dominance in the offensive zone for Edmonton. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has struggled in the net, allowing three or more goals in three of four starts.
Nugent-Hopkins is primed for another strong outing on the road to help the Oilers win the West and get back to the Stanley Cup Finals. He’s been an integral piece of Edmonton’s offense throughout the playoffs, especially against the Stars, and should wind up with another assist in Game 5 at +122 odds.
Pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1+ Assists (+122)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.