NHL Picks & Predictions: Canadiens vs. Hurricanes (Thursday)
The Conference Finals got started on Wednesday night, with the Vegas Golden Knights (+145) pulling off a 4-2 road upset against the Colorado Avalanche. The Stanley Cup playoff action continues on Thursday, with the Montreal Canadiens (0-0) and the Carolina Hurricanes (0-0) getting their series underway. Puck drop for Game 1 is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC. I've got you covered if you're looking to get some skin in the game tonight. We cashed our best bet last night, and I'm looking to stay hot on Thursday. Let's dive into the Canadiens versus Canes odds, key metrics and betting analysis for our best NHL picks.
Thursday’s Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Montreal Canadiens (+165) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-200) | O/U 6.0 (-105/-115)
The Hurricanes are 2-to-1 favorites to secure the series-opening win on Thursday. It's a lofty price, but fair considering they're a perfect 8-0 this postseason. It is worth noting that the Canadiens went 3-0-0 against the Hurricanes this season. The total for Game 1 is set at six goals. The three head-to-head matches this year averaged 7.7 goals per game.
I'll be on the over in tonight's game. The over has cashed in five of Montreal's last seven games, and it went 2-1 in their regular-season games against Carolina.
If this game's going to clear the number, we'll need the Canadiens to drive the scoring. I think they'll be able to find some success in this one, as the Habs have registered an expected goals per 60 minutes mark of 2.17 during 5-on-5 play. They have the fourth-best 5-on-5 shooting rate (10.8%) during the playoffs.
Of course, any power-play goals that we get from Montreal will be a bonus. Their man-advantage unit has been firing this postseason, cashing at a 25% rate (13-for-52). While Carolina has been elite on the penalty kill in the playoffs at 95% (38-for-40), Montreal did go 4-for-8 (50%) against them during the regular season.
Add in the potential "rust factor" from the Hurricanes, being that they haven't played since May 9th, and I think there's enough here to suggest that the Canadiens will pull their weight in getting this final score over the total.
As for the Hurricanes, they should have no issue netting three to four goals in this game. During 5-on-5 play specifically, Carolina ranks first in the playoffs in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.06).
They're averaging 2.9 high-danger shots on goal per game during even-strength play. Rod Brind'Amour's group has lit the lamp three or more times in five straight games and in six of their eight playoff games.
The jury is still out on Jakub Dobes. He has stepped up in key moments, but has also had several clunkers throughout his 14 playoff games. Dobes has a 2.52 GAA and a .910 SV% this postseason.
Dobes has allowed three or more goals in five out of seven games following a win in the playoffs. Carolina can get to this 24-year-old. I think both offenses find success. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 6.0 Goals (-105)