NHL Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/4)
The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs was cemented on Sunday evening, with the Canadiens knocking off the Lightning 2-1 and securing the final ticket to the conference semifinals. The action resumes on Monday night with a pair of games, including the Flyers taking on the Hurricanes and the Ducks opening up their series against the Golden Knights. I've got you covered if you're looking to get some skin in the game. Below, I'll dive into each of these contests from a sports betting angle and lay out the arguments for my top plays on the ice. Here are my favorite NHL picks for Monday, May 4th.
Monday’s Best NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of Hard Rock Bet)
Philadelphia Flyers (+185) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-240) | O/U 5.5 (+100/-120)
The top-seeded Hurricanes (1-0) cruised to a 3-0 shutout victory over the Flyers (0-1) in Game 1 on Saturday. Frederik Andersen made all 19 saves in the win, while Logan Stankoven remained hot and netted a couple of goals. Puck drop for Game 2 is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC.
I'll be on the under in Game 2. I was initially looking at Philadelphia's team total to go under 2.5 goals (-175), but I think the full-game under is just as likely to cash, and we're getting a better price at -120.
Let's start with the Flyers' goaltending because Dan Vladar is going to have to stand on his head if Philadelphia wants to have a chance to win this series. So far in the postseason, Vladar has been elite, posting a 1.82 GAA and a .928 SV%. His goals saved above expected is six, which is the third-best in the playoffs.
Who is above him, you ask? Well, it's Frederik Andersen (9.0) and Ottawa's Linus Ullmark (6.7). Andersen has been lights out, registering two postseason shutouts to go along with a 0.90 GAA and a .961 SV%. Those are insane numbers. Carolina, who ranks third in 5-on-5 Corsi percentage (54.55%) this postseason, should once again be able to impose its will on Philadelphia, which I believe will lead to another low-scoring game. Give me the under.
Bet: Under 5.5 Goals (-120)
Anaheim Ducks (+135) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-160) | O/U 6.0 (-120/+100)
The Ducks (0-0) took down the back-to-back Western Conference champion Oilers in the first round, and now they'll square off against another veteran squad in the Golden Knights (0-0). Vegas, the Pacific Division winner, handled Utah in the first round in six games. This series-opening clash gets underway at 9:30 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
I was looking at playing Vegas on the Moneyline in this one, mainly because I don’t trust Anaheim's goaltending and defense. But, upon further review, I don't really trust either of these goalies, so I'm going to jump on the over.
Starting with the Ducks, they've been a train wreck defensively over the last month. Across their last 16 games, which include regular-season and postseason affairs, Anaheim is conceding 3.9 goals per contest.
That's a large enough sample size to come to the conclusion that the Ducks are having issues on the back end. Lukas Dostal has been very beatable this postseason, logging a 3.87 GAA and a .874 SV%.
Meanwhile, it has been a wild ride for Carter Hart, too. The Vegas netminder conceded three or more goals in four of his six first-round games, and he enters the second round with a 2.72 GAA and a .898 SV%.
The Ducks have finesse, and they're also first in goals per 60 minutes (4.3) and shooting rate (13.4%) this postseason. This over is playable at either 6.0 or 6.5, as I anticipate plenty of goals coming in the opener.
Bet: Over 6.0 Goals (-120)