NHL Playoffs Same-Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Sunday (April 23)

by Matt Barbato |
Apr 23, 2023

How can you beat the NHL playoffs? Saturday night, we had three games finish in overtime, with another providing a 10-goal outburst. We’ll see if Sunday’s first batch of Game 4’s can top what we got on Saturday.

Without further ado, I’m back again with my same-game parlay picks for Sunday’s slate.

Sunday’s Best NHL Same Game Parlay Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Carolina Hurricanes (+105) at New York Islanders (-125) | Total 5.5

- Leg 1: Under 5.5
- Leg 2: Islanders -125
- Leg 3: Bo Horvat anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +600

On Friday, we discussed that the Islanders would exact revenge on home ice after kind of getting robbed in Game 2. Well, the Islanders made this a series with a 5-1 victory. But keep in mind that this game was knotted up at one with a little more than four minutes left in the third period. That’s when an onslaught occurred, with the Islanders lighting the lamp four times in a three-minute span.

An explosive fury of goals? How un-Islanders like.

New York was the deserving winner in Game 3. But the metrics back up the notion that this game was as tightly contested as it looked.

The biggest difference in Game 3 was that Carolina didn’t dominate possession like they normally do. And without Teuvo Teravainen, who broke his hand earlier in the series, the task will be even tougher for Rod Brind’Amour’s bunch. Carolina’s game stems around driving play and putting rubber on the net often. But injuries to a few of Carolina’s top forwards have drastically hurt their ability to play their style.

We’re going to get maximum effort from the Hurricanes in this game, but I am just worried that their injuries will be too much to overcome. For that reason, I lean with the Islanders to even this series up.

However, my favorite play is the under. The last two games in this series have gone over the closing total, but Friday’s game really had no business going over. It took a record-breaking deluge to get this game over, despite the game being tight and low scoring throughout. Plus, both goaltenders have been very solid in this series. I think this game finishes more like Game 1, with both teams knowing how high the stakes are.

Lastly, I’m giving Bo Horvat another shot to light the lamp for the first time in this series.

Boston Bruins (-150) at Florida Panthers (+130) | Total 6

- Leg 1: Boston -150
- Leg 2: Jake DeBrusk anytime goalscorer
- Leg 3: Sam Bennett anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +1500

For the first time all season, there was measurable doubt regarding the Boston Bruins entering Game 3. Boston played their worst game of the season in Game 2. There were murmurs of a potential goalie change, and captain Patrice Bergeron still wasn’t with the team due to a mysterious injury.

Well, Boston silenced the doubters with a convincing win. In doing so, they sparked a potential goalie controversy in Florida. Down 3-0 in the third, Panthers coach Paul Maurice questionably benched starter Alex Lyon after he had surrendered three goals on 26 shots. Sergei Bobrovsky came in and allowed a goal on eight shots.

Maurice claimed afterward this wasn’t a critique of Lyon’s game. And he could’ve merely just been sending a message to the rest of his team. But would it stun anyone if Florida turned to the veteran Bobrovsky in Game 4?

Interestingly, Boston only won the 5-on-5 expected goals battle by a 2.39-2.21 margin, yet outscored Florida 4-0 in 5-on-5. More interesting is Florida holds the expected goals advantage at 5-on-5 through the first three games, 7.57-6.17.

I will admit that this Game 4 is arguably the toughest one to handicap on Sunday’s slate. This feels like an opportunity for Boston to take hold of the series, but the metrics indicate that Florida has much more of a puncher’s chance. The difference to me comes in net, as I have doubts regarding both Florida netminders. I’ll also take Jake DeBrusk and Sam Bennett to light the lamp.

Dallas Stars (+100) at Minnesota Wild (-125) | Total 5.5

- Leg 1: Dallas +100
- Leg 2: Wild under 2.5 goals
- Leg 3: Jason Robertson anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +390

Game 3 of this series features an interesting clash between analytics and on-ice results. The Wild blew out the Stars 5-1 on home ice. And while the metrics agree Minnesota was the deserving winner, the Wild only were expected to score 1.32 goals at 5-on-5 and wound up scoring three. The shots were nearly even, and Dallas held the advantage in possession and in the faceoff dot. However, nine Dallas giveaways and four penalties played a role in Minnesota’s triumphant win.

Minnesota’s 5-1 win will look misleading, just like Dallas’ 7-3 win in Game 2. But at a macro level, this series has been extremely tight in terms of possession, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities at 5-on-5. The biggest difference has been converting those chances. Minnesota has scored on 10% of its shots at 5-on-5, while Dallas has scored on just 5.26% of their shots. That comes as a surprise, considering Dallas has more top-end scoring depth.

Part of the reason for Dallas’ shooting struggles has been the fantastic play of Filip Gustavsson. After inexplicably being benched in Game 2 for Marc-Andre Fleury, Gustavsson stopped 23 of 24 shots in Game 3. He ranks third among all goaltenders in goals saved above expected during the playoffs.

Stars netminder Jake Oettinger hasn’t been as strong, ranking just 13th in goals saved above expected. Dallas needs a better effort from him if they’re to even the series.

As I’ve written before, this series feels most conducive to the zig-zag theory that suggests each team will trade off wins and losses until the bitter end. I’m going to trust Oettinger to put up a stellar effort and help Dallas knot this series up. For that reason, I’m going to take the Stars, along with the under on Minnesota’s goal total in a correlated play.

Edmonton Oilers (-155) at Los Angeles Kings (+135) | Total 6.5

- Leg 1: Oilers -1.5
- Leg 2: Oilers over 3.5 goals
- Leg 3: Zach Hyman anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +450

The same old problem is cropping up for the Edmonton Oilers in the postseason. Studs Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are doing their parts, but nobody else is picking up the slack. Through three games, the only other Oiler with more than 2 points is defenseman Evan Bouchard. The Oilers need more from Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman the rest of the way.

But what’s fascinating about the Game 3 result is that Edmonton was pretty dominant at 5-on-5. The Oilers held more than 63% of the possession and nearly doubled the Kings in scoring chances. They also won the expected goals battle at 5-on-5 2.39-2.11, yet failed to score a goal.

The key for L.A. has been limiting the dangerous scoring chances against them. Edmonton had only 11 high-danger opportunities in Game 3. And when Edmonton does break through, goaltender Joonas Korpisalo has answered the bell. The trade deadline acquisition stopped 38 of 40 shots in Game 3 and has arguably been Los Angeles’ most valuable player.

Even though the Kings hold the 2-1 series advantage, the metrics suggest Edmonton has been the far better team. Just take a look at some of these key analytical categories at 5-on-5 play:

Corsi For % (gauges possession): Edmonton 59.24%
Scoring Chances: Edmonton 99-64
High Danger Chances: Edmonton 43-31
Expected Goals For: Edmonton 8.81, Los Angeles 5.74

Now, of course, when you convert only 4% of your shots on 5-on-5 play, it’s going to be really hard to win a series. It sure feels like Edmonton could be due to break through with a big effort Sunday in L.A. While Los Angeles holds the goaltending advantage with Korpisalo, Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner has been perfectly fine, ranking ninth in goals saved above expected during the playoffs.

The Oilers seem due for a big effort. And there’s no better time for it than in Game 4.

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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