NHL Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (12/3)

We’ve got a 10-game NHL slate to bet on Tuesday night following last Tuesday’s small two-game slate before the Thanksgiving holiday. We’re going back to Montreal when they host the New York Islanders at the Bell Centre tonight.

Last week’s NHL SGP remained a winner, however, one of the legs voided to reduce our total payout. Mike Matheson’s shots on goal prop was removed due to not playing in the game but the final two legs, Montreal +2.5 and under 8.5 total goals, cashed during the Canadiens’ 3-2 overtime loss to Utah at home.

I’m here with a brand new NHL SGP to tail for tonight’s action between the New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and weekly analysis.

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Tuesday's NHL SGP: New York Islanders vs. Montreal Canadiens 

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

New York Islanders (-138) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+115) | O/U  5.5 (-122/+100)

Under 8.5 Total Goals (-770)

Sam Montembeault is back in the net for Montreal against the Islanders tonight. The 28-year-old netminder is 6-10-2 as a starter in 2024 with a 3.12 GAA and .897 save percentage. He’s had an up-and-down start to the season but Montembeault is off of a week’s rest and has looked good in previous matchups against Buffalo, Minnesota, Columbus, Edmonton, and Utah.

Ilya Sorokin is expected to be the starter for New York on Tuesday night. He’s also been inconsistent in the crease but Montreal ranks 32nd in shots on goal, which helps us get under 8.5 total goals for the first leg. The Islanders have gone under 8.5 total goals in 21 of 25 games this season, although they’ve gone over this number in two of their last three matchups against Boston and Washington. Montreal has gone under 8.5 total goals in seven of their last eight games played.

We’re banking on Montreal and New York to wind up scoring less than four goals a piece in this Eastern Conference tilt, which feels very likely considering the inconsistent offense and stretches of good goaltending displayed by both netminders. Oddsmakers have set this line to 5.5 but we’re buying three total goals for insurance.

Montreal Canadiens +2.5 (-460)

Ironically, this NHL SGP is mirroring last Tuesday’s first two legs, inserting Montreal +2.5 at -460 odds alongside under 8.5 total goals. The Canadiens have covered the puck line in six of their last seven matchups against the Islanders.

Montreal has lost by two or less goals in three of their past five games. New York has only won by three or more goals once in their previous eight games, which was their most recent outing that resulted in a 3-0 win on home ice over Buffalo on Saturday.

Upon closer inspection, New York has only won three games by three or more goals in 25 games played. The Canadiens have lost by two or fewer goals once in their last five home games, which came against a much more talented Vegas Golden Knights roster. The Islanders are averaging 2.56 goals per game, sixth-worst in the NHL, while Montreal is averaging 2.83 per game.

Let’s run this alternate puck line back again at Montreal +2.5.

 Juraj Slafkovsky – Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-118)

We’re going to beef up this NHL SGP with a -110 player prop to get into plus odds. Juraj Slafkovsky was the first overall draft pick in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft and earns minutes on the Canadiens’ second attack line and top powerplay unit. Despite the high draft capital and his minutes on the ice alongside Montreal’s best skill players, Slafkovsky only has 26 shots on goal through 21 games played.

Slafkovsky is coming off of a two shot outing against Boston, a feat he’s accomplished in 33 percent of games played. Slafkovsky has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in back-to-back games once this season, which wound up being a four-game streak back in the first ten games he played.

New York is ranked 14th in shots on goal (727), taking 152 more shots on goal this season. Montreal has finished with 28 or fewer shots on goal in 12 of its last 13 games played and Slafkovsky defers to Brendan Gallagher, Cole Caufield, and Nick Suzuki when he’s on the ice. It’s going to be a sweat since it’s only 1.5 shots on goal, but I like Slafkovsky to remain under 1.5 shots on goal in this matchup against the Islanders.

SGP (+152)