Noche UFC Lopes vs. Silva Picks & Predictions (2025)
For the third year in a row, the UFC is celebrating Mexican Independence Day with a UFC card. This time, the card will take place in San Antonio, Texas, at the Frost Bank Center. The card features several Mexican fighters, but the main event pits two Brazilian fighters against each other: Diego Lopes and Jean Silva. There are also several fights with fighters of Mexican heritage on the card. It should make for a special night, especially for Mexican fight fans. The prelims begin at 3 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 6 p.m.
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Noche UFC Lopes vs. Silva Picks & Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Claudio Puelles (-112) vs. Joaquim Silva (-108)
Claudio Puelles is a frustrating fighter to watch at times. He pulls guard a lot due to his superb jiu-jitsu skills, but it is a quick way to lose fights if he does not get the submission. He is on a two-fight losing streak, but he should get back on track in this fight. His two losses were to Dan Hooker by knockout and Fares Ziam by split decision. He landed seven takedowns in his last fight, but did not do enough on the mat to beat Ziam.
Joaquim Silva is 13-6 as a professional and 6-5 in the UFC. His nickname is "Netto BJJ," but he has not shown those skills in the UFC. Puelles has the wrestling chops to land takedowns against Silva, who has only defended 69% of takedowns in the UFC. Silva is a strong, physical fighter, but Puelles is younger and has taken a year off. I expect him to come back better than ever and find a finish against Silva.
Pick: Claudio Puelles (-112)
Alexander Hernandez (-105) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (-115)
Hernandez fought less than a month ago and knocked out Chase Hooper in the first round. He has momentum on his side, while Carlos Diego Ferreira is 40 and is 2-4 in his last six fights. Hernandez has solid striking and a speed advantage, but he must stay on his feet. I do not expect that to be a problem, as he has defended 73% of takedowns in the UFC.
Ferreira is not a dominant wrestler and has not fought since January, a loss to Grant Dawson. I expect Ferreira to give a reasonable effort, as he always does, but Hernandez has the confidence and momentum to get past the older fighter.
Pick: Alexander Hernandez (-105)
Rob Font (-130) vs. David Martinez (+110)
David Martinez is replacing Raul Rosas Jr. on short notice to fight Rob Font, the ninth-ranked fighter in the bantamweight division. Font has been a staple in the division since 2014, but this may be a bad matchup for him. Martinez is an excellent striker with solid kickboxing. He can strike from range, but can explode inside and land power punches with his speed.
Martinez's striking defense is the difference in this fight. He has defended 67% of significant strikes in the UFC, while landing 52% of strikes. Font is also 38 and is past his prime. He has slowed down in recent fights and pulled out a close decision in his last fight against Jean Matsumoto. Martinez can land power strikes with his elbows and kicks, while Font typically fights behind his jab. That can lead to problems when you lose speed. I like Martinez to win this fight by chopping at Font's legs with kicks and slowing him down even more.
Pick: David Martinez (+110)