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Northern Trust Betting Guide (PGA)

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After missing 11 of 18 cuts heading into the Wyndham Championship, longshot Jim Herman (500/1) won his third career PGA title at Sedgefield Country Club. Herman carded rounds of 66-69-61-63 to finish at 21-under and beat out Billy Horschel by a stroke. His combined score of 124 on the weekend was the lowest closing 36 holes by a winner in PGA Tour history. It was a dominant performance for the 42-year-old Cincinnati product, who now jumps from 192 to 54 in the FedEx Cup ranks.

The PGA Tour now heads to Norton, Massachusetts for the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. TPC Boston will play host to this year’s Northern Trust, as the venue changes annually at this event. The top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings are invited to tee it up this week, so we can expect an extremely strong field. Whoever finishes in the top-70 this week at TPC Boston will move on to the BMW Championship. The Tour Championship will then conclude the 2020 PGA Tour season on September 7th.

Stakes are very high this week at the Northern Trust. The winner of the tournament will receive 1,500 FedEx Cup points and will also take home a cool $1.665 million. These points are crucial, as the 2020 FedEx Cup Champion will win $15 million after the Tour Championship concludes the playoffs. Golfers will be highly motivated to make the top-30 at East Lake for a chance to win big.

Here are the past five winners of the Northern Trust:

  • 2019 Patrick Reed (-16)
  • 2018 Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
  • 2017 Dustin Johnson (-13)
  • 2016 Patrick Reed (-9)
  • 2015 Jason Day (-19)

Course Preview

TCP Boston was once a regular stop on the PGA circuit, playing host to the Deutsche Bank Championship that eventually turned into the Dell Technologies Championship. Past winners of this event include household names like Rory McIlroy (2016), Justin Thomas (2017), and Bryson DeChambeau (2018). As you can see by these types of golfers, the course set-up tends to favour bombers of the golf ball.

It plays a 7,308 yard, Par 71, and features fast Bentgrass greens. We can expect plenty of birdies this week, as two of the par 5’s are reachable for every golfer. There is also a drivable Par 4 (for some) that measures at 353 yards and will play as the perfect risk/reward hole. The majority of other Par 4s are very scorable and play as some of the easiest holes on Tour. Strong long-iron play and aggressive golfers will succeed at TPC Boston.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach (>175 yards)
  • Performance on fast Bentgrass Greens
  • Birdie or Better
  • Opportunities Gained

Best Bets to Win (Odds courtesy of BetMGM)

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Jason Day (+2100)
Day is knocking on the door of his first win of the season. The Aussie has four straight top-10s, including a T4 at the PGA Championship and a T6 at the WGC. His last seven of eight rounds have all been in the 60s and the former world number one is slowly creeping back to elite status. He also has a second and a third at TPC Boston to his name.

Tyrell Hatton (+5600)
In my opinion, this is the best value on the board from a betting outright standpoint. To begin his 2020 season, Hatton had a streak of six straight top-15s, including a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. Hatton is coming off of a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but don’t let this scare you away. He struck the ball beautifully all week but lost nearly four strokes putting. Don’t expect this trend to continue. Hatton is an excellent putter and fourth in strokes gained: approach, this season. Hatton shot a round of 63 at TPC Boston in 2018.

Best Top-10 Bets

Kevin Kisner (+600)
Kisner is heating up immensely heading into the playoffs. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five times teeing it up, including a third-place showing at the Wyndham Championship last week. Kisner is one of the best putters on fast, Bentgrass greens, ranking fourth in that department in the last 50 rounds. As long as he continues to hit plenty of fairways and get himself in good position off the tee, his lack of length shouldn’t be too detrimental this week.

Russell Henley (+1000) 
Henley has been playing some mightily impressive golf of late. He has two top-10s in his last five times out and is coming off a ninth-place finish at the Wyndham Championship. Henley finished the weekend with rounds of 63 and 65 and is finally heating up with the putter. He ranks first for opportunities gained and second in tee-to-green in the last 24 rounds.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.