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Oakland Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Sports Betting Guide

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The Oakland Raiders are traveling to Minnesota to do battle with the Minnesota Vikings. These are two teams with very different aspirations for their seasons. The Vikings believe they have the talent to see football in February. The Raiders would be happy just to taste the postseason. Both of these teams have excellent young talents at the running back position that have morphed the strengths of their respective teams. Dalvin Cook leads the NFL with 255 rushing yards. Josh Jacobs is fourth with 184.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -7.5 for Minnesota and with an over/under total of 43 points. There has been some movement on both lines with the spread now sitting at -9 on Minnesota. The total has seen small movement and nows sits at 43.5.
  • Current Line: Minnesota -9
  • O/U: 43.5
  • Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, September 22nd
  • Last Meeting: Minnesota defeated Oakland 30-14 – November 15, 2015

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Raiders at Vikings >>

Overview

The Oakland Raiders have moved on from the Antonio Brown era in successful fashion. While they do not project to be as competitive as they would have been with Brown, the on-field product has its bright spots. Tight end Darren Waller, a converted wide receiver, has provided quarterback Derek Carr with a replacement for Jared Cook. He leads the team in targets. His new number one receiver Tyrell Williams is a big play waiting to happen and has afforded Carr a steady 1b option. Rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been as good as advertised and has provided some much-needed balance to the Raiders offense. The Raiders started their season with an impressive win against the Denver Broncos but predictably fell to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2. The Raiders are looking to improve upon their 4-12 record from last season and appear to have the schedule needed to achieve that feat. 

The Minnesota Vikings are looking to right the wrongs of a 2018 season gone very wrong. One of the favorites to play for the Super Bowl to open the season, they stumbled to an 8-7-1 record behind an offense and defense that disappointed in equal fashion. Minnesota opened the 2019 season with a convincing win over the Atlanta Falcons. They ended up falling to the Green Bay Packers in Week 2 but will look to rebound at home. Dalvin Cook has become a workhorse and the centerpiece of this offense. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen force opposing defenses to respect the run. As a result, Cook has faced a stacked box on just 17.6 percent of his 2019 carries. The Vikings look refreshed in 2019 and have the schedule to improve on their 2018 record. If everything falls in the right place, the Vikings have the opportunity to crack the double-digit win barrier. 

Trends

  • The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • Over is 2-0-2 in the last four contests between these two teams. 
  • Oakland is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests following a loss. 
  • Oakland is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Week 3 contests. 
  • Oakland is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests. 
  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following a loss ATS.
  • Minnesota is 10-4 in their last 14 September contests. 
  • Minnesota is 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 home contests. 
  • Under is 8-2 in Oakland’s last 10 contests following a double-digit home loss. 
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 road contests. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Oakland’s last seven September contests. 
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Oakland’s last 26 contests. 
  • Over is 14-6 in Oakland’s last 20 Week 3 contests. 
  • Under is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last four contests. 
  • Under is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six home contests. 
  • Under is 13-6 in Minnesota’s last 19 September contests. 
  • Under is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six contests following a straight-up loss. 

Prop Bets

Dalvin Cook over 75 rushing yards (-209)
The Dalvin Cook over 75 yards line has heavy juice. The best props with the highest win probability often do. PointsBet offers a variety of prop options for Cook’s rushing yards. At -834 you can get the over 50 rushing yard line. The juice is heavy, but the actual play seems to have a higher win probability than the odds suggest. At +121 PointsBet offers over 100 rushing yards. The plus money reflects the far superior risk with taking the line. After surveying the options and recognizing that Dalvin Cook just needs the ball once to go 75 yards, this line looks to have the best value. Cook is averaging 132.5 rushing yards per game, an average that could make one tempted to take the over 100 rushing yards line. Plus money on a prop should scare any prop bettor when presented with just the over option. This means the oddsmakers are confident that the end result will finish in their favor. Roll with Vegas’ projections and take the over 75 yards. 

Darren Waller over 50 receiving yards (-251)
With the over 75 yard line at +111 set above what Waller has achieved yardage wise in any game this season and no under option to work with, the over 50-yard line presents the value. Once again there is heavy juice on the most favorable line. As we progress through the season we will learn that eating the juice or laying a single unit for a partial unit return is preferable to chasing and missing on 11 to 21 cents in our favor. PointsBet gives us options so it is in our best interest to make use of the opportunity we have been afforded.

As mentioned above, Darren Waller leads the Oakland Raiders in targets and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in both of his matchups. Tyrell Williams has proved to be too much of a threat deep for opposing defenses to key in on Waller. As a result, Waller should be good for 50 receiving yards in most, if not all weeks. The Vikings allowed Austin Hooper to haul in nine of nine targets for 77 yards in Week 1 and will be hard-pressed to stop Waller even if they know he will see a high volume of targets. 

Bottom line

The spread for this contest has jumped from -7.5 to -9 on the Minnesota Vikings. This indicates that the early money believed that there was value on the home favorite. In situations where the spread has moved more than one point, using the team in a teaser should become an option. This only works if the spread has moved less than six points as this allows you to match or better the opening spread. If teaser cards are not your thing the -105 juice at PointsBet looks very attractive. Some thought was given to Minnesota Vikings first half, but the Raiders have scored 24 of their 34 points this season in the first half of contests. A live bet placed if the Raiders score first is the best bet for this contest, but if you are interested in a full game line the Vikings -9 still presents some value. 

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -9 (-105) 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.