Top 7 Odds & Picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship (2022)
Let’s take a look at the best odds and picks for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Classic PGA Tour event.
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Outright Winner: Cameron Young – (+2800 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’ll typically stay away from golfers making their debuts on a given course, but Cameron Young is going to be the exception to that rule. The odds on favorite for Rookie of the Year, Young has made 15 of 22 cuts this year, including 10 top 25s, having done literally everything except winning.
Yet.
Since the Masters in April, Young has three finishes of T2 and two finishes of T3, one of each coming at majors. Coming into this week after taking the last week off, Young finished runner-up in consecutive tournaments (The Open & Rocket Mortgage).
As you would expect, the metrics are there, as Young currently tanks inside the top 10 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, and Birdie Average. More so a matter of if, not when, Young finds the winner’s podium; I see no better place than a course at TPC Southwind that should play right to his strong suits.
Top 20: Cameron Young – (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The frontrunner for the 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, Young has quite literally done everything except win in his first full season on Tour. Making 15 cuts in the 22 tournaments he started, Young has 10 top 25s, including five in which he’s finished T3 or better.
In fact, in the last two tournaments, he entered Young finished runner-up, with his solo second at The Open Championship last month his best major finish to date.
Typically, I’ll stay away from players making their debut at a course, but Young’s game plays well to the key metrics involved at TPC Southwind, including ball striking and SG: Off-the-Tee. Despite not being the longest of courses, Young’s driving distance (currently #8 on Tour) should also give him an advantage here as it’s certainly a course you can overpower to setup ideal approach shots.
While he might struggle to close amongst the most elite fields of the season, look for Young to be in the mix come Sunday.
Top 20: Justin Thomas – (+100 on Barstool Sportsbook)
JT really righted the ship during the playoffs last season in the leadup to one of the best seasons of his career this year. Currently, #8 in the FedEx Cup, the 15-time PGA Tour winner made 16 of 18 cuts this season, with nine top 10 finishes on the way to winning his second major in the PGA Championship.
Having taken some time off since the British Open last month, JT returns fresh to a course he knows well in TPC Southwind. #2 in the field behind only Will Zalatoris (who played here just once, last season), JT is +2.13 in True SG at this course over the 12 rounds he’s played. In 2020, JT won this event, going +2.16 in SG: Approach; a metric critical for success here.
One of the best approaches shot players in the world, JT enters this week #5 on Tour in SG: Approach, in addition to being #3 on Tour in SG: Total. Add in a #2 ranking in Birdie Average, and I like for JT to be in contention come Sunday afternoon; well within the top 20.
Best Long-Shot Bets
Joaquin Niemann (+5000): 0.1u
At 50/1, Joaquin Niemann is worth taking a flyer on to capture his second win of the season. Entering this week in 21st place on the FedEx rankings and 19th in the OWGR, Niemann will look to catapult his name into elite company at just 23 years.
TPC Southwind is the type of course where Niemann’s game can excel. On TOUR this season, Niemann ranks 12th in SG Tee to Green and 66th in Scrambling.
We saw these areas of his game translate to success at this course last year as he finished in 17th place. In fact, Niemann has improved with each appearance at TPC Southwind, going from Cut to 52nd to 17th.
Entering this tournament in great form, Niemann has made the cut in 12 of his last 14 tournaments, excluding his W/D from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans because of his partner’s (Mito Pereira) injured back.
Over those 12 made-cuts, Niemann boasts one win and five top-20 finishes. There is no denying this event will have one of the most talented fields we have seen this season, hence Niemann’s long price.
However, Niemann has made the cut in all three major championships this season as well as THE PLAYERS, which all boast fields similar to the skill level of this weekend. At 50/1, one of the world’s brightest young golfers is certainly worth a shot.
Other Outright Winner Plays:
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