Ohio State vs. TCU: NCAA Tournament Picks & Odds

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. TCU.

2026 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Ohio State vs. TCU

Let’s dive into our top NCAA Tournament picks and predictions for this opening-round matchup.

2026 NCAA Tournament Preview: Ohio State vs. TCU

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Ohio State 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Jake Diebler brings Ohio State back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022 with a 21-12 record, a top-30 KenPom profile and a senior point guard who spent four years building something that finally matters in March. Bruce Thornton became Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer during a Senior Night win over Indiana, passing Dennis Hopson to stand first in program history at over 2,100 career points.

Thornton averaged 20.3 points per game while shooting 55.8% from the field, which is the highest field goal rate by a guard in the Big Ten this season. He averaged 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.2 steals per game, workload numbers of a player who is always on. John Mobley Jr. is the perimeter complement, averaging 15.9 points per game while connecting on 42.4% from three. Devin Royal gives the frontcourt a reliable 14 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. The supporting cast of Christoph Tilly, Taison Chatman and freshman Amare Bynum is good enough to win a first-round game on a normal night.

Despite a middling 7-5 record since February 1st, this Ohio State team ranks 13th in the country with an elite offense in that time frame, per Bart Torvik. The Buckeyes are 17th in the Haslametrics momentum ranking, sitting at fifth overall since the calendar flipped to March. That could be small sample size talking, or it could be the Buckeyes finding their best play at the best time. They may not be ShotQuality darlings with a lot of mid-range looks, but they rank second in mid-range shooting rate. A top-25 free-throw shooting rate helps them win late, and they went toe-to-toe with Michigan to show they can compete with the best of the best.

The Buckeyes’ defense, rated just outside of the top 50 in KenPom adjusted efficiency, held Ohio State together in tight games all season. Their depth is concerning, with the 325th-most bench minutes, while they don't do anything elite defensively that can push opponents off their game. And while they have a good amount of experience, none of Ohio State’s main role players have ever played in the NCAA Tournament. But the Buckeyes’ offense and Thornton's takeover potential are exactly what you look for in a Cinderella team, if you can call them that. This is a team with a wide range of outcomes that should be well prepared for March.

TCU 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Some of Jamie Dixon’s best work at TCU has come this season. After opening with a loss to New Orleans at home and spending the first half of the season in unpredictable territory, the Horned Frogs won eight of their last nine regular-season games to finish 22-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 - the program’s most conference wins since joining the league. That is not a small thing in a conference that features Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech at the top.

This team runs through sophomore forward David Punch, who became the primary scoring option and delivered some of his best performances under pressure, including back-to-back games of 26 and 24 points in the Big 12 Tournament before TCU fell to Kansas 78-73 in the quarterfinals. Punch is a bruising interior presence who can score around the rim, draw fouls and block shots, averaging around 15 points and nearly seven rebounds.

Lithuanian sophomore Liutauras Lelevicius is the perimeter complement, providing three-point shooting and secondary creation off the bench. Xavier Edmonds gives the frontcourt another scoring/rebounding piece, and he's capable of stretching the floor with perimeter shooting of his own. Tanner Toolson is the sixth man who can get hot in a hurry. This is a team that lost to Michigan by four and beat Florida on a neutral court.

TCU ranks 13th in Haslametrics' paper tiger factor, showing it is capable of getting up for big games. The Horned Frogs move up in efficiency ratings when considering away-from-home play, and they're above-average rebound getters. TCU’s defense is one of the program’s best in recent memory as well, ranking inside the top 25 nationally in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and in the top five in the Big 12 in forced turnovers.

What’s concerning is the Quad 1 road losses that dotted the season and the tendency to let big leads slip late. It seems like the Horned Frogs play to their opponents’ level, going 9-3 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog but 8-12 ATS as a favorite. While a big upset is possible, a devastating early loss is just as likely. What the closing stretch proved is that this group has figured out how to compete in the Big 12’s best environments. That usually translates well to a bracket setting.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Ohio State vs. TCU

The Ohio State Buckeyes finished the regular season with three consecutive wins under Jake Diebler. The Buckeyes even earned a quarterfinal win over Iowa before losing 71-67 to Michigan. The Buckeyes look competitive. The offense ranks inside the top 20 in efficiency and effective field goal percentage.

However, the defense has watched teams shoot 52.4% from the two-point range. They'll take on a TCU team that hasn't shot the ball very well over the course of the season. That said, TCU won six of its last seven games entering the tournament. The defense has forced nearly 20% of turnovers and has held opponents to a 51% effective field goal rate. Let's roll with Ohio State in this No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup.