Ole Miss vs. Michigan State NCAA Tournament Predictions (Sweet 16)
After a relatively low-key first weekend of March Madness hoops, we are back in action as the Sweet 16 continues tonight. Despite no major Cinderellas becoming tournament darlings and only one double-digit seed making it to the second weekend, we have a plethora of fantastic matchups to look forward to.
These No. 1 seeds are the best grouping of top seeds in the history of KenPom, but it's no guarantee they will all make San Antonio. We have four games tonight. While it isn't my favorite of the two nights, it's still March Madness, and for that I'm thankful. But let's get right into previewing each game with some leans and Sweet 16 best bets. Below we dive into our top predictions for Ole Miss vs. Michigan State.
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2025 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Ole Miss vs. Michigan State
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Location: State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA
Line: Michigan State -3.5 | Total: 143.5
This number opened at Michigan State -3.5 and has stayed steady as the closest spread among today's games. The standout here is Ole Miss's transition defense. They've limited opponents to 12 total transition points in the tournament, which is the first thing when looking at Michigan State's matchup with the Spartans scoring on the run at the 16th-highest rate in the nation. They don't turn the ball over and have a low offensive rebound rate from getting back on defense.
On the other side, Michigan State rebounds opponents’ misses at the eighth-highest rate in the nation with the league's best perimeter defense. The Spartans will draw plenty of fouls here and get some misses of their own, but Ole Miss' defense has only stepped up this tournament. I'm banking on them following that up against Michigan State tonight. Offensively, they are due for some regression and go against the seventh-best ISO defense in the nation. Everything yells under for this game.
Bet: Under 143.5 Points (-110)